Amarin Corporation PLC (AMRN) 옵션

JRoon, just so you understand, Sarissa’s statement re short selling is boiler plate in all activists filings when they exceed thresholds that require disclosure of their intent.

It's an odd question to ask if US patent protection is relevant for any Co interested in a BO of AMRN ? .
All of the buyouts that I've seen on Dew's board ...several of which I owned ( most recently SWAV ) ...had US patent protection .

IF AMRN ever drives the generics out of the US market thru the lawsuits you and others have worked on THEN AMRN becomes a BO candidate IMHO ...until then its value is really only the EU market and the only Co likely to be interested there is NVS ...and so far they haven't shown any interest. .
One thing that would increase the odds of a NVS buyout ...is if they cosponsored a trial with their Inclisiran in the EU ...where theres obvious benefit in CV risk reduction using both , as documented by some of Capts posts .
Kiwi

No it isnt. You're asking someone to provide evidence of shorting stocks he's been involved with in the past. Who cares? Someone can adopt a new behavior or tactic at any time for any reason. Prior to his involvement with Bioverative, could you provide evidence that Denner illegally traded stocks he's been involved with? Likely not... Yet he paid $40M personally and got sanctioned by the court for failing to preserve evidence so he could say he's never been convicted of such illegal activity cause he got caught doing exactly that.

Why do I need to provide evidence? I'm only speculating. Nobody believes it, so who cares?

I'm just following the breadcrumbs. He's a hedge fund manager. He's not a Boyscout, and he doesn't run a Vanguard Index Fund. I'm confused as to why everyone finds it so preposterous that he could be shorting AMRN, when he EXPLICITLY stated that he could, in his own proxy filing.

Not to mention, his own board member was writing extremely high volumes of options against AMRN, for months, both before and after Sarissa got involved.

I personally care because I want as much information about Amarin and Sarissa as possible, so I can stay informed on what is happening. They provide so little information to us, that any little clues about next moves are helpful. Amarin is no longer a "science" story, it's a financial engineering story. I actually HOPE it's Denner shorting AMRN. This would be much better than if it's just been some random trading firm placing short bets against Amarin. The fact that they didn't close a single share of that 18M short bet, when AMRN was at its all-time low is pretty telling.

Tat, That response is silly.
Sleven,

Why must there be evidence of previous behavior? What if he got caught on camera smoking crack today? Would you demand to see historical evidence of previous crack use? Did the judge in Goldstein v. Denner demand to see a previous history of insider trading to justify moving forward with the Bioverativ suit? Nah...

JRoon, Can you provide any evidence that Alex Denner has ever shorted a company he was involved with. One definitive example would be fine.
Sleven,

Stocks - takes months / years to grow' - days / hours to fall' !
---------------------------------------------------------

My wife always' when the market is rotten (like it has bin for the latest months) - why did 'nt you just sell 'on the top' ?

And I defend myself - 'the top' is very difficult to predict - as in IMPOSSIBLE - (and never there for long) - talking Stocks and the Market 🙂

Ask Dew that odd question; that is not a "who cares if the BO price is good" issue he records on that table/board.

https://apple.news/AyXghF9OiTmWI1Llr7C08QA

Will judge Du ever face something similar for her judgement on AMRN.

Funds >$100M in holdings and that declare an activist position report on a 13F. Also a 13D for ALL controlled shares if >5% ownership at time of crossing that threshold and if it changes by 1%. Funds >$100M that do not take an activist position report on a 13G, not F.

Sarissa Capital Management LP is the only declared management fund with >$100M and they identified as an activist investor in their filings. So Denner reports a 13F for that tax ID and ONLY has to report the shares that LP holds when it's time to file.

He has/had multiple separate holding companies on and off shore that are

PL, there are a few legal ways to structure offshore investments to avoid SEC reporting. Whether or not Sarissa does that, I don't know. But it would certainly help explain where the shares go that have ebbed and flowed over the past few years.

Edit: also, lending out shares, executing a swap, or possibly moving management of a sleeve to a subadvisor (ie. Morgan Stanley) could also explain the share count issue.

I believe all US based hedge funds over $100m have to register with the SEC and report US listed holdings via 13F. Most hedge funds have both onshore and offshore vehicles and have to report all holdings under management because they are US based SEC registered investment managers. It is not accurate that if your fund is registered in the Caymans or any other offshore locale that the SEC registered investment manager does not have to report US shares held there.

Nothing notable usually happens at the AGM. 

That's not what happened. You just need look at the SEC filings to see this.

If a client removed discretionary management from their Sarissa accounts, that does not effect Sarissa's holdings in AMRN within their multiple funds.

It is almost 100% certainty that some AMRN shares were moved to the offshore fund, which is not reportable to the SEC, although Sarissa can still state that they never sold a share (which would be 100% accurate). This certainly doesn't prove they were shorting. It just explains how shares can "vanish" from filings without selling.

As far as whether or not the were/are shorting, it's just my speculation based on all the evidence.

Truth be told, we would actually be lucky if it IS them shorting (and not some other group). Because it means they can help control the stock price in BOTH directions.

I have a high level of confidence that Sarissa has never shorted AMRN. I don't know precisely why share counts have varied in the reporting but have an idea about what it could be. In addition to managing fund capital, Sarissa has periodically had discretionary management responsibility for "separate accounts". Large clients can remove that discretion by firing the manager, regaining control, and then doing what they will with the underlying holdings. It could be that one or more separate account clients left. This would explain the drop in share count without explicit notice of sales by Sarissa.

North. How many of the Co's listed as buyouts on Dew's board, had lost US patent protection at the time of buyout. ?
Congrats on your other picks . You have obviously done well .
By the way ...I can think of better buyout candidates IMHO ...RZLT for instance
Kiwi

Hayward, we haven't had the AGM yet.

With This Aside, we knew this.

https://www.selondonics.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/SEL-Lipid-Optimisation-Pathway-April-2025-FINAL.pdf

https://asidejournals.com/index.php/Gastroenterology/article/view/6

Monk, that buyout at $300-400/share could happen. Look at Dew Diligence posts on Biotech Value board. He keeps a record or table of all BOs that are public. Premiums paid by buyers are often 2 to 6 to 10 times market price at time of BO. E.g.,, $50---> $300. How many shares does AMRN have today after RS?

I woke up early---someone bought 449 AMRN shares since Thursday's close, last price= $11.50, up $0.38. Cost basis in our joint account= ~  $37 for 6 or 7 thousand shares. I have ~  $37 thousand cash available 

Far worse, actually

My point exactly, so then why bother to have them as independent directors??? Just kick them out and replace them with knowledgeable in pharma business. respected people in the BP pharma industry.

Scientific Games? Man that is a blast from the past. I remember that one.

They all are just Denner’s proxy. They will do exactly as Denner will ask them to do.

Today I went green on AMRN. So much for all the screaming about the stock collapsing and going to an $80 million market cap post-reverse split. Like I said, these people will learn something.

By the way, everyone keeps on talking about Denner, but what about all these Amarin directors( Saprissa's Capital executives), have you or anyone on this board see any of them buy some shares of AMRN since they were elected to this board? That should tell you something.

Agree
We need it to grow to 200+
And the BO 300-400
To get anywhere close to the ATH

north, I said years ago - if you had an ETF on your Portfolio' - I would put all my money in that Index of yours 🙂

North, I sure hope it ultimately goes way over $50.. At $50 I'll still take a loss. I have an approximate $4.85 CB pre RS or $97 CB post RS. I know, it sucks to be me. But I think there are a lot of others in my position.

Spouse and I have around 14 ten-baggers in our accounts now. Best has been 7600 shares NVDA with December 2009 split-adjusted entry of $0.42 per share, now trading over $106 per share.Thousands or hundreds of each of  IBM, CPRX, CORT, PX, VCEL, SBUX, WGS, MSFT, GILD, AMAT, AMD are others. CPRX and VCEL are each in 2 accounts. We are hoping Sarissa's efforts will cause AMRN to reach at least $50 before buyout. 

19 more days like this and I'm back to breakeven. Long way to go.

Amarin MarketEdge Today: NeutralStock shows Strongly Improving Conditions. SCORE = 4 
If you are Short this stock, consider covering or monitor stock closely. 
Stock is an Early Entry Buy Candidate if stock closes above 10.16
On 04/24/2025, The stock is outperforming the market when compared to the S&P 500 over the last 50 trading days. The MACD-LT, an intermediate-term trend indicator, is bullish at this time. A close above $10.16 is a number to watch to confirm a trend reversal.Momentum as measured by the 14-day RSI is gaining in strength. The stock is in a short-term overbought condition based on a Slow % K stochastic reading of 80 or higher. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days, indicating that AMRN is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is trading above a rising 50-day moving average which confirms the improving technical condition.

No problems re whatever shorting is going on. Why raise the topic? AMRN shares are +~ 8% at $11.18 for the day.

JRoon71

Not looking good for your predictions

1. Always does the opposite of what we think
2. Someone always knows before good or bad
3. Hard to short 20 million shares

IMO this is either a big bear or bull trap !! Time will tell but time is running out

Michael

PL, have you ever looked deeper?

Do you think it is just a coincidence that millions of shares of Sarissa's AMRN holdings "vanish" from the filings from time to time? And that one of his funds (that we know of), the Master Fund (not Master Fund II), is allowed to sell short, and also one of the only funds that is incorporated in the Cayman Islands instead of Delaware, where the rest of his funds are incorporated? And that Cayman Island funds are exempt from SEC reporting? And that he stated that he could employ shorting and other derivative instruments in his Amarin proxy presentation? And that *someone* has been strategically shorting Amarin for the past few years? And even when the stock price hit it's all-time low of $0.37 (or whatever the low was), they did not cover ANY of their short position at that price? (which is absurd)

I am just confused how people are so resistant to facts that are right in front of them. Occam's Razor?

You are also correct about the fact that Denner, ignoring the fact that shorting has never been a big part of his strategy, is not shorting Amarin. He has largely been a plain vanilla activist that seeks control, clean up, value realization via M&A takeout.

I already voted no to issuing any more comp shares.

The Denner pumps are working hard ahead of the AGM...

You are correct. I took SciGames (now Light & Wonder) from lows of $4s to $45 in 1 year on Covid dump in 2020 (should have held for 20x). You are also correct about the fact that Denner, ignoring the fact that shorting has never been a big part of his strategy, is not shorting Amarin. He has largely been a plain vanilla activist that seeks control, clean up, value realization via M&A takeout.

Well considering what you just said, here is what I intend to do:
It is obvious that Sarissa is trying to make AMRN look pretty before the AGM & the proxy statement to be filed by stockholders. Looking at the stock incentive plan, it seems outrageous that based on the total amount of outstanding shares of 21.3 million, they would propose an additional £38 million to the now outstanding amount.
Therefore, I will vote No on section 11 & 12 of the proxy. I will also vote no on all members of the board except for Berg, since the others are just puppets of Sarissa Capital & Denner just use them to avoid having to disburse any money from his own pocket, at the expense of AMRN shareholders. They have done absolutely nothing for the shareholders. The only person doing anything is the lawyer writing all the filings.

I have all the confidence that vascepa will prove superior to all of these: Inclisiran (Leqvio), Zerlasiran, Lerodalcibep, Muvalaplin,
Nexletol (Bempedoic Acid), Lepodisiran, Plozasiran - It just has to Because we SAY so !!!

The reason so many retailers don't make money is that they think history simply repeats itself. AMRN stock always falls after earnings, so it will fall again. Stock always goes down after a reverse split, so it will drop again. They are like news anchors who predict what has already happened. As I said, I was in pre-market, pre-earnings, and pre-outcomes trials and made big money every time. I am loaded again at the lowest valuation ever. I bought all the way down to 36 cents without panicking. I started buying in the $0.60s...my average is $1.11, which is $0.19 away from the ask. I will make seven figures here when it's all done. Has anyone had a 10 bagger here? I have and it's not done following the herd.

Understand. Figured you knew that. 

Why is it nonsense? Denner is a hedge fund manager. It's what they do. They will employ any means necessary to maximize their return. Shorting, running options, etc. is part of the basic hedge fund playbook. You can't call something that is standard procedure in the industry a "conspiracy theory".

In Denner's Amarin proxy presentation, they even indicated that shorting is a technique they may employ.

These conspiracy theories of amrn being shorted so that company or Denner can buy back cheaper or take it private is complete nonsense. Laughable crap.

Keto diets increase CV risk

Did A.I. tell you that? Modern medical dogma about lipid biology and heart health is based (and funded by) 50+ years of promoting carbohydrate based diets to support the large and powerful US grain industry and shunning natural fats in the diet. The chronic metabolic damage and resulting CVD issues are ultimately caused by excessive carb intake. Particularly fructose which must process through the liver and slams right into the lipogenesis pathway spiking blood lipid levels and inflammation. It does not trigger the leptin system like protein, fats and simple glucose, so you don't feel the same level of satiety relative to energy intake meaning people will still feel hunger even in an over fed energy state so they eat more leading to even higher blood lipid levels as the body stores the excess calories. LDL and Tg's are just the natural mechanism for the body to transport and stored excess calories as fat. They get out of control because of the excessive carbohydrate in the diet. Fructose is a hepatic toxin.

What happens with "Keto" and why every gets weird with it is when someone who's been eating the standard US diet of government subsidized High Fructose Corn Syrup since birth with a wrecked metabolism and clogged arteries suddenly switches to protein and fat and eliminates carbs, the body switches to ketone metabolism and mobilizes years of lipids from storage and their blood fat levels spike. The sugar indoctrinated doctors see this and think that's "bad" and link it to all of the fat they suddenly started eating. People also tend to jump right into the diet causing them a lot of overall stress and don't know how to manage their electrolytes, hydration causing a lot of other problems. The people who jump onto the keto diet are usually overweight with severe insulin resistance with a long history of yoyo dieting and well on their way to an event anyway.

Besides the drug industry certainly does not want a purely natural solution to fructose metabolic toxicity when they can sell the masses statins, vascepa, eze, psk9s and glp1s... Fructose makes billions for Big Food and Big Pharma.

No he is the biggest AMRN pumper around no way he sold. As far as a fall that will likely happen after the ER like it always does. We usually are down 20% the day they announce the earnings. Not having any news on China, France, or Germany is not going to help matters eithers.

No, I have never sold a single share (other than some tax loss harvesting a few years ago, but bought back after 30 day window).

We hit $12.80 in January. Then we hit $7.00 in March. I think after the AGM we will re-test those lows from last month. I will buy some more then to keep getting my CB lower (I think my CB is now around $45/$2.25 pre-split).

It's not an indictment of Amarin, just the fact that this is how the stock trades, and there is nothing short-term to push the price up (unless Sarissa/Amarin make some big announcement, or begin buying). With no buying pressure, the SP will drift back down for now. I still believe in the stock long-term. When Denner wants it to run, it will run.

I'm totally embarrassed, The Columbia had the hole in the wing. The Challenger was the O-Ring failure.

These conspiracy theories of amrn being shorted so that company or Denner can buy back cheaper or take it private is complete nonsense. Laughable crap.