Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) 시세

I think the title was "Sammy the Farting Puppy." About a puppy named Sammy who was the story's Protagonist (hero). Sammy would always pass gas on his owner at the most inappropriate moments. His owner wanted to take him to the dog pound. Until the night the house caught fire. Sammy's barking woke everyone up and they escaped the fire. Sammy's then became a beloved member of the family. Sammy eventually got over his flatulence condition and became a therapy dog for other puppies suffering from excessive flatulence. The End... :D)

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175622655

Does anyone on the board have a link to the FFS bost about his book?
Sleven,

,,,,,and don't forget about the savings card program too;
IF you are eligible and use the $9 for 90 days then Vascepa is always cheaper than generics unless they give it to you for "free" !!

Dont forget to include the margin delta's.
Generic is happy with 20 to25% on average
Amarin is currently 50 to 80% about 3-4 times Generics
Amarin long term would like to be 70 to 80% but shorterm keeps cutting price in usa (which lowers margin) in order to maintain volume and market share.
Cost advantage that Amarin has is most likely relatively small and not sufficient to offset generic business model for lower profits

If the article is wrong, Amarin should get them to correct it.

BBI, you know how many things are "out there" that Amarin needs to correct?

Damn, let's just start with all the articles and websites calling generic IPE "Generic Vascepa", or talking about how it helps prevent cardiovascular disease.

I think Amarin gave up even trying to fix this shit years ago.

Again, this is why I always go back to my contention that the new formulation is the future for Vascepa. If there's no generic, there can be no confusion.

I have no idea how many doctors or potential Amarin customers see an article such as the one referencing the difference in cost between Vascepa and generics, but the company should correct the errors publicly if the article is way off the mark. Everything said in the responses to my original post sound entirely reasonable as explanations for the discrepancies. You're right that Amarin doesn't manufacture anything. I remember JT saying after the Judge Du decision that Amarin had a big advantage over generics in that it had worked with multiple Vascepa suppliers for years to perfect Vascepa in the manufacturing process and that it was difficult for these factories to get it right and generics wouldn't be able to immediately find manufacturers who could crank out a lot of product.

Then Amarin began taking those dreadful $10 million hits to earnings because it couldn't sell enough Vascepa to keep up with its contracts and had to renegotiate them and presumably make these $10 million payments as a penalty. It did seem a little curious that when Vascepa stopping having these $10 million earnings hits, they began having to dramatically drop Vascepa's price. So maybe they found a way to pass along the penalty fees without having to pay millions in single quarterly payments.

But it's also possible that the article is wrong and that the price of the generic is much closer to Vascepa's price, which I recall KM saying once was about a 15 percent difference. If the article is wrong, Amarin should get them to correct it.

At the very least, Denner has proven how easy it is to take over a struggling company. When it went to a vote, it wasn't even close.

Based on what? People also said 2024 was the year for amarin. They said brave would be big, etc. Denner has not proven a thing yet.

True but applies to both brand and generic in the article

Keep in mind that the prices quoted in the article are deceiving because they state prices for 30 capsules which is about a week's supply if taken in the recommended dose of 4 caps/day.

Are you the bathroom remodeler?

Thinking about your post, I would have to say that JRoon's post to Kube's might be close to the answer. But I do have some other thoughts on your post.

Now, I could be wrong and willing to stand corrected, but I don't believe Amarin manufacturers anything. They buy the API and have someone encapsulate the product for them. And, we have to remember that it has been a few years now where Amarin is having to write off inventory and I might be wrong about this but I thought even had to pay API manufacturers for not being able to keep up with accepting predesignated quantities. So they may or may not be getting that much of a better deal as they used to.

Lastly, from that article, the cost to patient for GV is the covered cost. If you go on say GoodRX, even with their coupon the cost is $98. Not the $20 or so quoted in the article.

Kube, you could be on to something.

Most generics distributors have hundreds of drugs they sell. I sort of doubt that there is any type of collusion going on among them, but they could absolutely be undercutting to gain market share. But this doesn't necessarily rise to the level predatory pricing (which is VERY tough to prove, especially when there are 8 different generics in the market, plus the brand).

What may be more likely is that they sell to wholesalers (PBM's) at cost (more or less), to try to gain some market share. But they more than make up for it with other products in their portfolio.

It's no different than when you see something on a display shelf at WalMart selling for a massive discount. Or you see TV's advertised on Black Friday for 100 bucks. It's a loss leader, gets people into the store, etc.

A couple of theories…

Could generics be using a less pure version of the API than AMRN?

Could generics be (selling below cost) and engaging in predatory pricing and collusion in an attempt to run out the clock for AMRN?
1) Down-listing from NASDAQ in May if share price isn’t above a dollar (tick tock)
2) Patent exclusivity in the U.S. (tick tock)

AMRN appears to have strategic vulnerabilities and the generics are circling their prey.

I thought that generics were about 15 percent less expensive than Vascepa. But this article makes it sound like Vascepa costs as much as four times as much or at least double the price of generics. Is that true? If so, how can generics produce the pills at such low cost since Amarin presumably is producing much more of it and thus would have lower manufacturing costs? And, if generics are selling it so much cheaper, how do they make any money at all off of Vascepa since Amarin's margins aren't that great to begin with?

January 15, 2025 at 10:32 AM
https://www.aol.com/much-does-vascepa-cost-medicare-023200723.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS5zZy8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHRd1oHWNZShy781aOrSyPWVaT6kSs8Fn5kGcp-vemXgH8R-UYQRlYKSe8T2MkRA5JLrT0JiyvIDYbWKL_zu9pRr46_102wUxZDhJHPumm53GSGyAFF42hX8X-EjWaWHqzl_14MS79CnLN-r5UYTuIfwOkAEE8nuIrriicrkgOWL

Same same… 🤔
https://stocktwits.com/Mmmzzz/message/600403588

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/600436451

Hi rosem......I did see that earlier today.... that dude was playing both sides right..."yea the Rams were great but the Vikes linemen weren't executing blah blah blah......I get his point since he is an offensive lineman himself but it's not a smart move to give a bunch of rookies more motivation. The Rams got an arse whooping from the Eagles earlier this year and now have something to prove.

Amarin shares.

You don't know what you've got until you don't know what you don't.

2025 will be a blockbuster year.

Ram, I hope the Rams put this up on their bulletin board as use it as fodder for the game:

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2025/01/16/rams-eagles-vikings-jordan-mailata-defense-quote/

To not own AMRN, he should move on. Or what I would like to say to FFS, is to FO and stop posting here

Really? That is pretty rude dude - a post worthy of deletion... if the moderator was someone other than Sleven.
Sorry, but I'll post if and when I want. It's good information, as opposed to attacks on other poster's ideas like most on this board.

Why are you posting on this message board?
Haha, why are you?

Why do I fish the same hole over and over? I don't mind catching the same trophy trout repeatedly, and I don't mind doing the equivalent in trading if the same stock repeatedly presents opportunity for profits. AMRN is a favorite 'hole' to at least visit and watch for a possible setup.

Oh, and forgive me but is this your board? Am I intruding, or is this a free country and I can post as I please? Please tell me moderator man.

Sleven, I agree. FFS is an absolute savant when using and intepreting TA. Of course I love the kangaroo tail.
To not own AMRN, he should move on. Or what I would like to say to FFS, is to FO and stop posting here. Oh, I have an ignore option which I am using now.
Sleven, I do appreciate what you do on this board.

Yes, quite strange but with this stock, nothing surprises me.

If a settlement happens, Hikma will not supply IPE to the US market up to a certain date while other generics will still supply?

The drop off in volume today kind of wild... after a lowish volume +9% on a bit over 1.2m shares, today the stock is -2.75% at the moment at $0.5490 (the ask) on 274k shares traded as of 2:23pm. Perhaps a jump before end of day but it stands out.

a settlement that would specifically prohibits other vendors of generics to sell under the name "generic Vascepa" if they do not have FDA approval for CVD & do not include CVD treatment coverage in their label

Yes.  I am not really up to speed as to what incriminating evidence Amarin had on HealthNet or how devastating it was.  But as you say Hikma is imo in deep doodoo so hopefully if there is a settlement it is significantly more effective than the HN one. What I have a hard time with is what kind of settlement with Hikma would stop the other 7 or 8 Generics from stealing CVD sales. 

CaptBeer, and if so, I hope a setlement is much better than the Healthnet settlement as that did not appear to move the needle in any direction. In my opinion, Hikma is in a bad place in their infringement case.

poor little scorned and scorched Ralphey who wrote this less than 1 week before the long anticipated AMRN volcano exploded on the R-IT announcement.

Tuesday, September 18, 2018 3:34:10 PM
Hey hows that AMRN thing working out for you guys ....

Now he barks while drifting listless hoping his parents help with his tuitionless med schooling (since losing it chasing an AMRN falling knife)

Vascepa is not on the Kaiser 2025 formulary ...for anyone including Medicare part D patients
icosapent ethyl caps 1gm 2 PA; MO...is what I see

Kiwi

Thx for the link
Based on the most recent data available, approximately 53 million people are enrolled in Medicare Part D plans as of 20242. The total U.S. population is estimated to be around 334 million in 2024. Therefore, the percentage of the U.S. population enrolled in Medicare Part D is approximately 15.9%.
To break this down further:
53 million are enrolled in Medicare Part D plans2
This represents about 79% of the total 67 million Medicare beneficiaries2
Medicare Part D enrollees include those in stand-alone prescription drug plans and Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage23
It's worth noting that enrollment in Medicare Part D has been steadily increasing over the years.
In 2022, about 49.8 million (77%) of the 65 million Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in a Part D plan1.

AI generated
Kiwi

I think they listened to this one instead .

FlyFishingStocks
May 22, 2024

I think it tests 1.70 within 3 months. That is a +91% rally before it stalls, absorbs selling, and builds a base for another leg up (possibly induced by share buyback operations?).

My guess is that this case will not make it to trial but will end in a settlement in 2025.

FFS, How is a rumor a TA based trading strategy?
TA Strategies follow chart patterns/price action. Ever heard of the market efficiency theory? Most everything you know - or more importantly are about to know about a company - is already baked into the chart ticks.

Sleven, which TA path would you prefer ...stair step into Hell (AMRN), or be lofted suddenly into Heaven on a volcanic blast (XRP - up +523% in 65 days)?




The dogma will continue to kill you until you finally realize numbers don't lie... CEO's do.

Thanks for posting.  For those who might miss it, here is the discussion concerning Amarin v Hikma:

Amarin Pharma v. Hikma Pharmaceuticals28 & Skinny LabelsHolding: The complaint plausibly pleaded induced infringement based on the label and public statements made by the generic manufacturer.The next panel from the Federal Circuit (Moore, Lourie, Albright) next dealt with what seemed like a section viii carve out ANDA case, but was rather a “run-of-the-mill induced infringement case.”29 The generic product, an icosapent ethyl already on the market, was approved for only one of the two indications (treatment of severe hypertriglyceridemia) that the NDA product (Vascepa) had been approved for, but included no limitation of use as to the second indication, and the generic manufacturer had made repeated public statements referring to itself as the “generic Vascepa,” despite being approved for only half the indications.30Unique to this case was that it was appealed from the motion to dismiss stage, and thus discovery had not occurred.31 Not in dispute however was that the complaint sufficiently alleged direct infringement, knowledge, and intent, and thus the Federal Circuit’s decision focused on whether an “inducing act” was sufficiently alleged – it was.32 Reversing the district court’s dismissal, the Federal Circuit managed to walk along the “careful balance struck by the Hatch-Waxman Act regarding section viii carve-outs,” emphasizing that this decision did not “effectively eviscerate section viii-carveouts,” as argued by Hikma, and was instead “limited to the allegations” and “guided by the standard of review appropriate for this stage of the proceedings.”33 Given those explicitly limiting statements, this decision does little to affect true section viii jurisprudence under the Hatch-Waxman Act, and thus for practitioners, reliance on cases such as GlaxoSmithKline v. Teva (2021)34 is still appropriate for skinny label analyses.

Kube, I think that means that for CO and VT residents, they are subject to the price disclosure noted after it (https://www.amarincorp.com/wac). Probably something to do with state-specific regulations.

Of course, that link goes to a 404, so no idea what it says.

Looks like the discount card for $9 for 90 day supply only applies to CO and VT residents?

https://www.womblebonddickinson.com/us/insights/articles-and-briefings/2024-hatch-waxman-year-review

https://cms.amarincorp.com/sites/default/files/2025-01/Formulary_Status.pdf

HLS management is turning cash flow positive on far lower sales and growing far faster than what Amarin is able to accomplish in Europe.
Amarin has a white collar problem with a long history of rewarding the white collar club for not being profitable. Dream of what HLS management could do with Amarin. HLS is operating in Canada and a lot of what they do to get strong growth numbers would apply to Europe.
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Craig Millian is the CEO of HLS Therapeutics and has proven he understands how to run a small pharama grow sales and turn it to profitability. Hire him and put him in as the new CEO. The Boyz we have running Amarin are getting nice pay checks and not getting the job done.

The soil in the U.S. can still grow Vascepa flowers, but the U.S. soil badly needs needs fertilizer....Lr Et EPA could be that needed fertilizer.

Amarin could turn cash flow positive, IF U.S. sales of Vascepa didn't keep dropping. No generics in Canada.

HLS Therapeutics in Canada has the rights to Vascepa.
Q3 results - Vascepa revenue in Canada increased 30% in constant currency compared to Q3 2023 versus Q3 2024
Vascepa unit demand increased by 45% compared to Q3 2023.
The number of consistent prescribers2 for Vascepa increased 66% compared to Q3 2023.
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This small company is about to turn cash flow positive on Vascepa related revenues/cost. Amarin????

Is Vazkepa looked at as a valuable drug?
We now have ((8)) generics in the US market. Yes there is a big recognition of Vasecpa making a difference in CV care.
The Europeans are a little slow in understanding a statin patient being released from the hospital after a heart attack should see Vazkepa added to their therapy. Getting to a critical number of patients and doctors in Europe will put a lot of pressure on other doctors to get on top of what is the best care for these patients. That would be hundred of thousands of HA patients that should at teast be given the choice.
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My Doc still thinks fish oil has some medicinal value. This year he finally brought up Vascepa to me as off label use as my blood lipids edged into the treatment zone. I've actually talked to him about Vascepa in the past and he was clueless and always acted uninterested. European medicine is apparently not incentivized to keep up to date and are also on the slow track with Vazkepa. I think once that snowball of Vazkepa users gets big enough there is real potential Vaskepe it will gain traction. My Doc was actually interested in me starting Vascepa off label, for me that was a huge statement.

See the cash position. A reverse split would not get hammered in this situation.
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A reverse split for company that is issuing stock to raise funds to keep going is what gets hammered, justly.

FFS, How is a rumor a TA based trading strategy?
Sleven,