Nebuchadnezzar
2 시간 전
new highs based off what?
the global economy and US economy was and is already slowing before TRUMP TARIFF EVENT
at 6100 on SP 500, it already priced in the BEST CASE scenarios for growth for 2025 and possibly half of 2026 if not all of 2026.
todays rally was mostly ALGOS and bear/short hedges that either got too long in the tooth or needed to be UNWOUND ASAP, 85-90% of the market is ALGOS, so that includes the sell off as well, but i do not see the market making new highs anytime soon.
SP rallied 400 points and its still well below 5600-5800 range, you WILL NOT SEE another rally like this all year, shit, you might not see another move like today for the next 10 years, in addition, SMART MONEY will see this rally the rest of the week.
AS for CHINA, this rally was based off reciprocal tariffs for many countries being rescinded/scaled back to 10% whereas the TARIFFS on CHINA went over 100%.
THE US and CHINA are the TWO BIGGEST ECONOMIES (the EURO is huge as well but thats several countries) so the real TRADE WAR is only beginning
CHINA can continue to DUMP US treasuries, devalue their currency and cause plenty of damage to the US.
what if CHINA bans all APPLE PRODUCTS 100%? what is they BAN all TSLA cars?
sure, the market would have a nice bear market rally, but today's bounce was most UNWINDING of positions at a moments notice, i was actually suprised it closed at the highs of the day but it did
the SP 500 did drop from 6100 to 4800s very fast so no surprise of a violent bear market rally, right to the middle of the KELTNER channel zone, even after todays rally, the market is still bearish and likely heading into a recession, definitely an earnings recession.
the FED cannot cut rates and after todays rally, those ODDS TANKED
TRUMP might be playing chess and other countries playing checkers, but CHINA can do some damage and todays rally completely ignored what CHINA did, can do and will likely do as this continues to escalate.
my call of 3900-4100 is still possible but those odds also went down today (which is a positive overall) but people cannot overlook the fact that the stock market is still expensive, in fact, it might have just gotten a LOT MORE EXPENSIVE after today 3000 point DOW rally and 400 point SP 500 rally in terms of future earnings being discounted.
even without tariffs, if the US has a mild recession, 5400 is still too high, 4400-4700 is probably fair value
China's odds of invading Taiwan just to FK with the world just increases as well and that is likely to happen anyways, tariffs or no tariffs
so to conclude, todays rally used up a ton of fire power after a major sell off, this will not be a V shaped recovery, its too late in the market cycle and ELLIOT WAVE still suggests that there could be one more big leg down before its all said and done even if this is all CORRECTIVE, if its a true bear market, then there is plenty more downside and volatility, i think we are in for a 12-18 month SLOGGG of headline driven markets and a market that might be flat when all is said and done by 2027, if you are right one day and the markets see 6700-7000, SHORT EVERYTHING WITH EVERYTHING YOU GOT
Nebuchadnezzar
1 일 전
i see 4800s overnight ;)
hows that BUY SIGNAL working out?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175968864
OOOOPSY!!!!!!!!!!!!
now the bullish people on wall street are hoping for 5500!! LOL and it will be another great place to DUMP, if it even GETS THERE
i just want to take a moment and LAUGH MY ASS OFF!!!!!!
on its way to 4500 pretty quickly, might get another bear market rally soon or another head fake like today, then SELL IT again down to 4100
other countries are now selling US treasuries, RATES UP, STOCKS down, FED CAUGHT with its pants DOWN.
no rate cuts and any rate cuts now will be seen as PANIC
Chartmaster
2 일 전
my accuracy appears to be better than yours Ummm....Not seeing it Neb, Sorry! Did U miss this?
Aug 7: SPY high was 565.16, minus the recent low of 510.27 equals 54.89, add to the 565.16 high equals 620.05 projection, possibly by year end imo
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174882021
Aug 10: Plus the daily stochastics bullish divergence and weekly stochastics are oversold and bout to turn higher says to me Monday was the Low of the month, and prob holds the low for the year imo
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174898504
Aug 13: My calculator says 620 by eoy, which is close to my 610 prediction at the start of this year! We have the volatility, just need to know which way this will rip, and I think up!
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174915959
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