Yen Rises Amid Tariff Worries
31 1월 2025 - 12:35PM
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The Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies in
the Asian session on Friday, as investor sentiment dropped on the
sidelines after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that 25
percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico are coming on Saturday,
although crude flows may be exempted from the levies.
He also pledged to move forward with 10 percent import duties on
China and threatened 100 percent tariffs on BRICS nations over
dollar replacement moves.
The European Union has started its "strategic dialogue" with key
automotive stakeholders in Brussels and promised an "action plan"
to help support the industry that is under threat from transition
to carbon neutrality, Chinese competition and tariff threats.
The safe-haven JPY may be supported by trade war fears,
geopolitical risk, and predictions on a BoJ rate hike.
The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that underlying
inflation remained somewhat below 2% and also stated that the
central bank will continue to pursue an accommodative monetary
policy in order to support price trends.
The ECB delivered a widely expected 25-basis point interest-rate
cut and guided for a further reduction in March due to concerns
about economic growth.
In economic news, the value of retail sales in Japan was up 3.7
percent on year in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications said on Friday - coming in at 16.123 trillion yen.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent and was up from
2.8 percent in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis,
sales fell 0.7 percent after adding 1.9 percent in the previous
month. For the fourth quarter of 2024, retail sales were down 0.3
percent on quarter and up 2.6 percent on year at 44.160 trillion
yen. For all of 2024, retail sales were up 2.5 percent to 167.179
trillion yen
Meanwhile, industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally
adjusted 0.3 percent on month in December, the Ministry of Economy
and Trade said in Friday's preliminary report. That beat forecasts
for a decline of 0.1 percent following the 2.2 percent contraction
in November. On a yearly basis, production sank 1.1 percent. Upon
the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of
industrial production, saying that it continues to fluctuate
indecisively. According to the METI's forecast of industrial
production, output is expected to rise 1.0 percent in January and
1.2 percent in February.
The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted
2.4 percent in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications said on Friday. That was beneath expectations for
2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from November. The
jobs-to-applicant ratio was 1.25, in line with forecasts and
unchanged from the previous month. The participation rate came in
at 63.4 percent, shy of expectations for 63.5 percent - which would
have been unchanged from the November reading.
In the Asian trading today, the yen rose to nearly a 2-month
high of 169.18 against the Swiss franc, a 2-week high of 159.93
against the euro and nearly a 2-week high of 191.19 against the
pound, from yesterday's closing quotes of 169.40 and 160.21 and
191.42, respectively. If the yen extends its uptrend, it is likely
to find resistance around against the franc, against the euro and
against the pound.
Against the U.S. and the Canadian dollars, the yen edged up to
153.92 and 106.24 from Thursday's closing quotes of 154.09 and
106.32, respectively. The yen may test resistance around 150.00
against the greenback and 103.00 against the loonie.
Against the Australia and the New Zealand dollars, the yen
advanced to nearly a 2-month high of 95.62 and a 4-1/2-month high
of 86.66 from yesterday's closing quotes of 95.75 and 86.83,
respectively. The next possible upside target for the yen are seen
around 94.00 against the aussie and 84.00 against the kiwi.
Looking ahead, Germany's unemployment data for January is due at
3:55 am ET in the European session. The jobless rate is expected to
rise to 6.2 percent in January from 6.1 percent in December.
In the New York session, Canada GDP data and budget balance for
November, U.S. personal income and spending for November, U.S. PCE
price index for December, U.S. Chicago PMI for January and U.S.
Baker Hughes oil rig count data are slated for release.
At 8:00 am ET, Destatis publishes Germany's flash inflation
figures for January. Consumer price inflation is seen at 2.6
percent, the same as in December.
Sterling vs Yen (FX:GBPJPY)
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Sterling vs Yen (FX:GBPJPY)
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