Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) 옵션

On April 2,2025 Christopher Missling MS PhD MBA has the opportunity to purchase 500,000 AVXL shares at $0.92 each. What do you think he will do???

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314052/000173112224002041/e6219_10-k.htm

Good luck and GOD bless,

Including four new manufacturing plants.

Nothing about take overs, only investing in produktion facilities. Resd before you "retweet "

They have to strike soon if they want it fairly cheap.

If approved for AD in EU, the BO price just rocketed X10 or more IMO.

Johnson & Johnson plans $55 billion in US investments over the next four years

Maybe purchase AVXL?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-johnson-plans-55-billion-114136793.html

Totally agree. I have something like a split mind when it comes to biotech investing: the part that puts the money to work is cynical and conservative and the other half of me is curious and excitable. I am very excited about the MAA and 3-71 schizophrenia trial - and still am cautious.

Glad you noticed! Oh but I have to Say that I am a bit disappoint that my personal trade tracker missed that fact.

Didn’t think capacity was the underlying argument.
Intuitively, if production agreements were not in place to satisfy expected need (or some minimum) why approve an artificial shortage?
At any rate, it does seem “required” to show ability to supply.

Just ordered Del Maguay Tobala through Total Wine for Cinco celebration.
I prefer one ice cube to “open it”.

you were there, now you're here
AVXL Weekly log: https://invst.ly/19n51h

That right !!
Call his a$$ out. He is a short in trouble !!’
Just like his buddies that are on every other post when we go down 10 cents.
U know the ones that call it a pos and say one day we will be a $8 stock again. Yea- them punks !!
These boys always want to be right !!
Well—- they are miserable people to be around ,!!

I am concerned about the trial result at this point. But perhaps a highly effective anti-schizophrenia drug with no significant side effects will be more readily taken upon reaching the marketplace.

Agree, boi, but I am talking about compliance in the real world. If 3-71 improves cognition to some degree and has fewer side effects, I believe, quite aside from efficacy on PANSS, it could generate better compliance than the BMY (Karuna) drug outside of inpatient populations.

Now I’m pissed at myself for taking Investor2014 off ignore. But it’s an easy fix!

I think that the problem of dosing compliance in the schizo trial is not going to be an issue if the expansion of the trial size, as I expect, will remain as inpatient populations where the medical staff makes sure the patients receive the drug.

I agree, Hoskuld, that the MAA isn't a slam dunk, and I certainly believe that 3-71 for Schizophrenia is way far from that. I just wanted to point out that 3-71 has features beyond the PANSS scores racked up by Karuna that could well color the relative attractiveness of 3-71. One of the problems with Schizophrenia patients, as I understand it, is the adherence to regular dosing. Lesser side effects and improved cognition could tip the balance if the PANSS scores were relatively comparable to the SOC.

Leo, No tightening of the sphincter with the $10 calls. Just waiting for Theta low and then making the next move. I would enjoy discussing the trade over a bottle of Clase Azul Ultra Anejo with you.

Ya Ya and you also pushed buying SAVA..I can pull out your posts if you want. Everyone knows what side of the fence your on.

Did you notice that Misleading conveniently avoided mentioning the PANSS score when he released the Phase 2 part A data? Guys still hides data. First he runs tiny trial and then takes forever to cherry pick data.

https://www.anavex.com/post/anavex-life-sciences-announces-encouraging-preliminary-biomarker-results-from-ongoing-phase-2-study

For $3 billion revenue in 2028
how many of the current 7 million European AD patients will be receiving the drug?

What will be the yearly revenue for Blarcamasine per patient?

Gerry, I don't blame them for near misses on stated milestones or for the slightly bungled December 2022 top-line reveal. The small trial sizes however added massive risk in general and actually caused the Rett failure (totally avoidable.) The stats hire was brilliant.

One of these days, Anavex is going to connect on something and hit it out of the park. They are due.

Those are my hopes, too Mr. Munny. I don't think anyone should invest thinking the MAA is a sure thing nor thinking that the efficacy of 3-71 trumps the current SoC. But...am hoping that the data combined with no decent, safe alternatives will make the EMA choose to approve (as we would, even objectively.) And I want to think 3-71 is better but...the company itself ran a very small P2, even if they are expanding it a bit, so have to assume their confidence is roughly 50-50, too.

Personally, Hoskuld, I might up the odds a bit on the MAA, given the general disfavor for the efficacy, safety and cost of the mAbs. However, I really want to point out that the comparison with Karuna’s drug for Schizophrenia may have twists that don’t directly compare. Karuna apparently has some unpleasant side effects, that, while not dangerous, could be off-putting. More importantly, no Schizophrenia drug has, to my knowledge, addressed cognition, which 3-71 will attempt to do.

My thought is that 3-71 will not have to surpass the PANSS scores of the Karuna drug and need only come close if it improves cognition and produces lesser side effects. So, while I think that the odds of better PANSS scores might be only 50/50, which is a reasonable, if not generous, assumption on your part, the odds of coming up with an overall better and more tolerable drug may actually be higher. I am OK with that 50% number at this point, since we know so little other than the agonists involved and the company’s comments on the genetic expression results in Part A (and the willingness to expand the participant roster), but I suspect that the overall impact of 3-71 will be significantly superior beyond PANSS based on our (admittedly modest) understanding of that drug’s presumed impact on cognition and its tolerability.

My elbows will be fine whatever happens to
$AVXL. Hopefully one day $AVXL will be a $10 stock again and if a $8 stock just yet another dry powder blessing for some…

I wouldn't own shares at $10 if I didn't think it was undervalued. Being patronizing is not a way to engage.

75% for MAA, 50% chance of having results that could be represented as better than Karuna's?

So 75% for MAA of an NPV of $80 that was posted previously is $60. Like it! Add on 50% chance for 3-71 success and NPV adds to MAA approval of $60.

Seems we do agree that AVXL is waaaay undervalued at $10. That agreement is a welcomed breakthrough!

It depends on timing of news flow, IMO, if it will drop enough to be worthwhile this time.
This move has been anticipatory IMO and if news is coming soon to add to that, I want to be holding even my trading shares. Just watching and trying to gain a feel for that timing. Things I am paying attention to are volume, money flow, 8ema support on the daily (14 trading days strong now) and the weekly 200period. If you look at a 1minute chart, the accumulation buys are very clear.
Whether it happens or not, there is huge upside potential on the weekly. On a daily, price is doing a great job pushing up both bands. Yes, for now I am only looking at bull scenarios for the immediate (day to day) picture because there aren't enough bear signals for me to alter my holding stance. Could bear signals come? Of course so I need to be flexible not locked in rigid.

Green Trades

75% for MAA, 50% chance of having results that could be represented as better than Karuna's?

Hope that elbow holds out as you and your posts age.

If neither MAA approval comes nor 3-71 results are extremely good, then...there is no NPV calc that makes sense because the stock would be sitting at ~$350m based purely on speculation that the company could run a pair of truly effective PD P3 trials.

So, according to your AVXL analysis, what is the chance of:

i) MAA non approval

ii} 3-71 results are a dud

Yep in total agreement with trial size being a problem in the past and possibly with the 2-71 trial. There were other problems as well cro vetting , disclosure of data, missed timelines . My personal opinion is his only brilliant move these last 3 years was hiring Dr. Jung ,,, try to imagine where we’d be if he wasn’t on board. I really enjoy his lemonade

IDK...if MAA is approved then let's say $3b in Revenue in 2028 and work back 3 years - say $15b MC discounted back 20% each year...so roughly $7.5b-$8b market cap? If MAA is not approved but 3-71 results are good then purely based on schizophrenia and approval coming n 2028 and $1b in sales in 2031, then $6b discounted back 20% for 6 years...maybe $2b? PD is too far out there to count on so will ignore it. If neither MAA approval comes nor 3-71 results are extremely good, then...there is no NPV calc that makes sense because the stock would be sitting at ~$350m based purely on speculation that the company could run a pair of truly effective PD P3 trials.

The trading channel needs to be moved to $80.00 & $100.00. That's what I'm talking about.

NPV is tough. Like doing NPV on Schrodingers cat.

No doubt about the fact that NPV predictions are tough! No dispute there. But, my guess, based upon my estimate of 80% to 90% chance of EMA approval is that NPV is much greater than $10.04. That's exactly why I am extremely bullish on AVXL's future prospects.

Is AVXL NPV $40, $80, or $200, I don't know? All my analysis suggests concludes is that NPV is much, much higher than $10.04. Any sensible investor, imo, has to start somewhere with their NPV estimate and I have chosen to outline mine in a previous post, and again, it is much, much higher than $10.04.

What do you think that AVXL's NPV is?

NPV is tough. Like doing NPV on Schrodingers cat.

Perhaps a sign of Blarcamesine denial

Great chart, Oldmystic!

Where does AVXL go if it closes above $10.04?

(Hopefully much, much higher than $10.04. After all the AVXL NPV is much, much higher!)

Oh, and yes, WGT!

Yes fortunately that seems true too - just - at least for now..., but then again not really!

That is an interesting chart. 🤔
But it also shows that the past rallies also sold back down into the channel. Suggesting? A trader's rally to take some profit at the top. Rebuy in the channel.?

Obviously the bashers, FUDsterss and shorters did everything that they could to keep the price of AVXL shares from closing above $10.00 per share today.

Good luck and GOD bless,

Sounds like Gerry Spence

Expect AVXL to close today at or near the high of the day!!!


Wrong again, as you are 99% of the time. Your expectations suck!

It is obvious that the bashers, FUDsters and shorters conspired to paint the tape at the close of trading today!!! Just look at the price graph near he close. Look at the last 30 minutes of trading today.

Good luck and GOD bless,

I could live with $82 by October 26, but was hoping for Oct 25!

So, we hit 10 and the cat is just wet!



Hmm, posting wet cat pictures🤣

Let's hope is it based on reality

Big vote of confidence for approval tomorrow in Boston
Transitioning from Phase IIb/III Success to Commercial Activities: Ensuring Pre-Launch Readiness in the Alzheimer’s Treatment Landscape
Time: 1:30 pm
Day: Conference Day Two - Track Three

I would think it may be

Expect well over 1 million shares of AVXL to be purchased today in anticipation of NEWS!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

Yep as soon as he opens his mouth and starts spewing his great predictions and Promises everything always goes wrong now he's posting the same things from months ago the guy's unbelievable the elevator just don't reach up top

They are also immature

Within less than 2 and 1/2 weeks expect the blarcamesine Phase 2b/3 OLE results

PHASE IIB/III ATTENTION-AD STUDY: OVER THREE YEARS OF CONTINUOUS TREATMENT WITH ORAL BLARCAMESINE CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY BENEFIT EARLY ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE PATIENTS (ID 3170)

Presenter
Timo Grimmer (Germany)
Author
Marwan N. Sabbagh (United States of America) William R. Chezem (United States of America) Kun Jin (United States of America) Juan Carlos Lopez-Talavera (United States of America) Christopher U. Missling (United States of America) Timo Grimmer (Germany)
Lecture Time
18:15 - 18:30
Abstract

Aims

There are no approved oral small molecule therapies for treatment of early Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Blarcamesine is an orally bioavailable small molecule that acts as an agonist of the sigma-1 receptor (SIGMAR1) that enhances autophagy through SIGMAR1 activation and restoration of cellular homeostasis in early AD.

The ATTENTION-AD study was an up to 144-week open-label extension study of the Phase IIb/III double-blind placebo-controlled study ANAVEX2-73-AD-004, to evaluate the safety and efficacy of oral once daily blarcamesine in participants with early AD.

Methods

The delayed-start analysis was performed using Mixed effect Model Repeated Measures (MMRM) to evaluate effects of early treatment of blarcamesine. Comparisons were made between ‘Continued blarcamesine’ (early start) and ‘Placebo to blarcamesine’ (late start) for ADAS-Cog13 and ADCS-ADL.

Results

The delayed-start analysis for ADAS-Cog13 showed a significant difference between early and late start treatment groups at week 144 (LS mean difference -2.70, P = 0.0348), favoring the early start group and increasing up to week 192 (LS mean difference -3.83, P = 0.0165). The delayed-start analysis for ADCS-ADL showed a similar trend between early and late start groups at week 144 (LS mean difference +2.32 P = 0.125), increasing up to week 192 and reaching statistical significance (LS mean difference +4.30, P = 0.0206).

Conclusions

Blarcamesine-treated patients continue to accrue benefit through up to 4 years, as measured by co-primary endpoints ADAS-Cog13 and ADCS-ADL. Delayed start group does not catch up to early start group, reflecting importance of early treatment initiation. The results provide further support for the efficacy results in the pivotal phase IIb/III study. No new safety findings have been observed with continued blarcamesine treatment over three years with good comparative safety profile and no associated neuroimaging adverse events.

https://cslide.ctimeetingtech.com/adpd25/attendee/confcal/session/calendar?q=blarcamesine

Good luck and GOD bless,