Battered by negative comparable
store sales growth, increased input costs and deep discounting,
Gap Inc.’s (GPS) fourth-quarter 2011 earnings
slide 27% to 44 cents per share from the prior-period earnings of
60 cents per share. However, quarterly earnings managed to beat the
Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents per share.
Quarter in
Details
During the quarter, net sales edged
down 1.9% to $4,283 million from $4,364 million in the year-ago
quarter, primarily due to higher discounting offers to lure
customers during holiday season and negative comparable store sales
growth. However, total revenue of $4283 million nominally beat the
Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,282 million.
Same-store sales slipped 4% for the
quarter versus an increase of 1% in the prior-year quarter. The
decline is due to a drop in same-store sales across all brands,
except a flat year-over-year comparable sales at Banana Republic
North America. Same-store sales of Gap North America, Old Navy
North America and International brands declined 3%, 6% and 8%,
respectively.
Quarterly gross profit fell 15.8%
year over year to $1,405 million, primarily due to higher input
costs. Consequently, gross margin contracted 540 basis points (bps)
to 32.8%.
Gap’s operating income plunged
37.3% year over year to $372 million and operating margin shriveled
490 bps to 8.7%, marginally offset by a benefit of 60 basis points
from leveraged operating expenses as a percentage of sales.
Fiscal 2011
highlight
The company’s earnings of $1.56 per
share for fiscal 2011 declined 17% from the previous fiscal
earnings of $1.88. However, it managed to surpass the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $1.54 per share.
Net sales during the period inched
down approximately 1% year over year to $14,549 million, primarily
due to a decline of 4% in comparable store sales. Each of Gap’s
segments, including Gap North America, Banana Republic North
America, Old Navy North America and International brands
experienced a decline of 4%, 1%, 3% and 7%, respectively, in
comparable store sales. However, total revenue beat the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $14,546 million.
However, despite weak top- and
bottom-line performance during the fiscal, the company has some
reasons to cheer. Gap is in the process of achieving its target of
generating 30% net sales through International and Direct divisions
by fiscal 2013. During 2011, the two segments contributed 26%
toward net sales. Moreover, with efficient inventory management,
the company delivered higher Average Unit Retails during full
fiscal. Moreover, Gap has efficiently managed its costs and
invested in pre-planned long-term growth initiatives.
Balance Sheet, Share
Repurchases and Dividend
At the end of fiscal 2011, the
company has cash and cash equivalents of $1,885 million compared
with $1,561 million in the year-ago period and free cash flow of
$815 million. In 2011, the company has made a capital expenditure
of $584 million and expects to expend $600 million for fiscal
2012.
During 2011, the company deployed
$2,092 million of cash toward share buybacks and $236 million
toward dividends. Gap’s board of directors has authorized a new $1
billion share repurchase program replacing the previously announced
share repurchase program of $500 million.
During the fiscal, Gap paid an
annual dividend of 45 cents per share to its shareholders and
announced to raise annual dividend by 11.1% to 50 cents in fiscal
2012.
Store
Count
During the reported quarter, Gap
opened 43 company-operated stores and shuttered 72 locations,
bringing the total company-operated store counts to 3,036.
Moreover, in the fourth quarter, the company opened 16 stores in
franchise business bringing the total franchise store counts to
217.
In an effort to improve customer
experience and boost productivity per square footage, the company
plans to strategically close and consolidate square footage at Gap
and Old Navy brands. In 2012, Gap intends to open 125
company-operated stores and shut down 115 company-operated stores
in different locations. Moreover, it also expects to decrease net
square footage by 1% in fiscal 2012. In 2011, the company’s net
square footage decreased 2.6% from the previous fiscal level.
Contrary to this, the company is
planning aggressively to expand its international and franchise
business. Of the 125 stores to be opened in fiscal 2012, 55 stores
will be opened outside U.S. Further, the company intends to triple
the Gap store count in China from 15 to approximately 45 during the
next 12 month period. Further, Gap also intends to open 10 Athleta
stores in the country to a total of 50 Athleta stores.
2012
Outlook
The company now expects earnings in
the range of $1.75 to $1.80 per share for fiscal 2012, an increase
of 12% to 15% from fiscal 2011. The current Zacks Consensus
Estimate stands at $1.80 per share, which is at the higher end of
its guidance range. Moreover, Gap is also anticipating an increase
of 10% in operating margin during fiscal 2012.
In a drive to boost international
operations, Gap consolidated its foreign business under one
division from London. Lackluster sales in North America compelled
the company to explore business in other shores. In order to
counter the domestic market saturation, Gap is aiming to generate
30% of total sales from its overseas operations and online business
by 2013.
To achieve this end, Gap has opened
its stores in China, Italy and Australia and has launched
e-commerce business in more than 90 markets. These initiatives are
expected to bolster the company’s top- and bottom-line performance,
moving forward.
Our
Take
We believe that the company’s
long-term strategic moves along with disciplined cost management
measures will not only provide financial flexibility, but will also
help to drive value proposition. Moreover, Gap’s globally
recognized brands complement each other, enabling it to leverage
its position in the sector.
However, Gap operates in a highly
fragmented market and competes with national and local department
stores and discount stores, such as American Eagle
Outfitters Inc. (AEO) and The TJX Companies
Inc. (TJX), which offer products at fire sale prices. To
retain the existing market share, the company may have to slash
sales prices, which could affect its margins.
Gap’s shares maintain a Zacks #3
Rank, which translates into a short-term ‘Hold’ rating. Our
long-term recommendation on the stock remains ‘Neutral’.
AMER EAGLE OUTF (AEO): Free Stock Analysis Report
GAP INC (GPS): Free Stock Analysis Report
TJX COS INC NEW (TJX): Free Stock Analysis Report
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