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9 시간 전
Silver Continues to Drag
By: Christopher Lewis | December 24, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of nothingness on Tuesday, as the market cannot seemingly get a break from the interest rate markets. With the ten year yield in the US hovering around the 4.6% level, it makes sense that silver struggles.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as obviously a lot of people are paying close attention to the liquidity issues. And with that being the case, I think the market is going to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but I also recognize that it’s going to be difficult to really get things moving with the lack of trading volume. If we can recapture the $30.50 level, at that point in time, I think silver will start to look fairly strong again, but it will take some effort at that point.
On the other hand, if we break down below the $28.50 level, it’s likely that this market drops towards $27. Keep in mind that interest rates in America continue to climb despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates in America. So, I think you’ve got a situation where you just have to be cognizant of the fact that the 10-year yield is a major factor in what happens next.
With that, if yields drop that could help silver so make sure that not only do you have the move to the upside on the charts, but you also have those rates dropping in America because that will give you a little bit of added confirmation in a resumption of the uptrend. Of course, the exact opposite would be true if rates start to climb, and silver starts to drop could be pretty bad for silver overall.
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1 일 전
Silver Signals Potential Bounce Amid Bearish Correction
By: Bruce Powers | December 23, 2024
• Silver reclaims 200-Day MA at 29.67, hinting at a possible bounce, but resistance and bearish correction risks remain significant in the near term.
Although there is a good chance that silver has not yet completed its bearish correction, a bounce may occur before it continues lower, if it is to eventually do so. On Monday, silver advanced slightly to a three-day high of 29.88, at the time of this writing. That was a reclaim of the 200-Day MA (blue), now at 29.67, and a minor bullish indication. Also, notice that the 200-Day line converges with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous lows from November.
In other words, there are several indicators identifying the support level that was recently busted and now references potential resistance. If resistance is cleared to the upside, then a bounce could proceed up to test higher resistance around internal uptrend line and the 20-Day MA (purple). Notice that the 20-Day line is converging with the rising trendline and today they both identify the same price area. Currently, the 20-Day line is at 30.62.
Daily Close Above 200-Day MA, Short-term Bullish
A daily close above the 200-Day line would indicate strength that could persist into a counter-trend rally. Resistance around the 200-Day line was seen on each of the past two days so today’s advance is a very small change in character, but it is a change. A clearer bullish indication could lead to higher prices and the first sign of that would be on a rally above today’s high of 29.88.
If a rally does come and silver is able to get above and stay above the 20-Day MA, then the next higher target would be a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA (orange). Currently, the 50-Day line is at 31.51 and it resides around the top downtrend line, which represents potential resistance as well.
200-Day Line Needs Attention
The 200-Day MA has represented trend support since early-March of this year. Last week there was a daily close below the line on three days, while there was none previously since the 200-Day line was reclaimed in early-March. Therefore, if a rally is followed by a continuation back down and below the 200-Day line, silver is likely heading to a deeper bearish correction and a longer time below the 200-Day MA.
Nevertheless, the two next lower targets are at the 78.6% retracement at 28.27, and the completion of an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern at 27.11 (purple). Notice that the beginning of the ABCD pattern is at the trend high that completed a five wave Elliott Wave advance at 34.87.
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1 일 전
Silver Continues to See Sluggish Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | December 23, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of noise at the moment, but at this point, we are watching the trendline for some kind of decision to be made for the longer-term. Silver is something that you should always be careful for, but this time of year makes it even worse when it comes to position sizing.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied initially during the trading session on Monday as the $30 level was targeted to the upside. We also have a previous uptrend line that should now offer resistance and so far, it has. The market is also dancing around the 200 day EMA, so it ties together for a very noisy place on the chart. Furthermore, we also have the holidays over the next week or two, so that affects liquidity and therefore I’m not really sure that you can read too much into the charts when it comes to silver. In other words, this is a situation where we are killing time and waiting for momentum to show up.
However, if we were to break above the $30.50 level, I think that would be a very valuable piece of insight that we are in fact recovering. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of trading sessions, then I think the market probably breaks down. In general, I think this is a market that’s on the precipice of a bigger move, but that move might actually be early next year, keep that in mind.
All things being equal, I think we’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of going sideways. So, you have to be very cautious. Furthermore, keep your position size reasonable as the market is almost certainly going to be erratic.
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3 일 전
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29958 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Presently, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in December is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33330 and it has broken last month's low falling to 29145 yet it is trading below last month's close of 31108.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30615 and support forming below at 29750. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 18 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 9th at 33330. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 12.55% in a stark panic type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 26505 as it has fallen back reaching only 29145 which still remains 9.960% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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5 일 전
Silver Gives Up Early Gains on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | December 19, 2024
• The silver market initially rallied on Thursday, as the markets tried to recover from the massive selloff that we had seen on Wednesday. At this point, there are questions as to whether silver can recover, or if a lack of liquidity will be the issue. As always, make sure to keep your position size reasonable in this market, as it can be dangerous at times.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but as you can see has fallen yet again and looks miserable. I think at this point in time, it’s going to come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing to not only silver but other commodity markets as well. Now that we are breaking below the 200 day EMA, this could in fact be a major shift in what we are seeing. The market dropping from here could open up a move down to the $27 level given enough time, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
Ultimately, I think you’ve got a scenario where if silver does stay below the 200 day EMA, I think a lot of people are going to somewhat panic, especially considering how bullish it’s been all year. I also think that there are probably people out there that would be willing to get out of the market now and reset for next year.
Remember, liquidity is going to be an issue sooner or later. And of course, silver is a wild market to begin with. Watch interest rates if they continue to climb in America, in the bond market, that will put significant negative pressure on silver. As things stand right now, it looks like a sell the rally type of situation.
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1 주 전
Silver Continues to Test Trendline Area
By: Christopher Lewis | December 17, 2024
• The silver market has been a bit negative as of late, and the early hours of Tuesday weren’t any different. At this point, we have a lot of support just below, but silver is also competing with higher interest rates in the United States.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market pulled back just a bit during early trading on Tuesday as it is now threatening a significant uptrend line. The uptrend line of course is something that we’ve been paying attention to since February. So, it’s very interesting that we now find ourselves testing that again and we also have to consider that we are between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators, which typically means you are in an area that will get some type of reaction.
Further impressing upon the mind of the trader is the $30 level sitting here offering potential support. We have recently seen a significant bounce towards the $32.50 level but have given those gains up. I’m not necessarily ready to call for shorting this pair or yeah, this pair yet. But really at this point, I think you have to pay close attention to the fact that we are forming a bit of a potential head and shoulders.
So, a breakdown below the 200 day EMA may kick off pretty significant selling. The 10 year yield in America reached 4.5% yesterday and as the real yields tend to rise, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, that can cause chaos. Silver, of course, is especially sensitive to these types of things. So, keep that in mind.
I’ll be watching to see if there’s a bounce, but I suspect that the culmination of what’s happening here is probably going to be seen Thursday with the Federal Reserve announcement.
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Silver Price Forecast: Sitting on Key Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | December 16, 2024
• Silver tests critical support at the rising trendline, with a breakdown below 30.29 signaling bearish continuation, but a rally above could reclaim bullish momentum.
Silver had a low volatility day on Monday as it traded within a relatively narrow range of 30.47 to 30.75. And the range was within Friday’s price range. Nonetheless, on a short-term basis silver is showing weakness as it is closing back below the 20-Day MA for the second day in a row, after trading above it for the prior eight days. Also, last Friday’s low of 30.29 provided another bullish reversal from a touch of the rising trendline. In other words, silver is sitting at a key support zone defined by the rising line.
Bearish Below 30.29
A breakdown occurs on a drop below last week’s low of 30.29. That would trigger a drop below the trend line and a decline below last week’s low. It should be highlighted that last week’s candlestick pattern was a bearish shooting star. Maybe it was not in the ideal location of the trend as it is within a weekly consolidation zone, but nonetheless it was bearish. And since the rising trendline correlates with last week’s low, it should be given attention.
Prior support around 29.68 to 29.64 may be tested if last week’s low fails to hold as support. Although the potential for a triple bottom exists, it is also possible that silver continues lower, below the double bottom, to support around the downtrend line or the 78.6% retracement zone at 29.24. Regarding the double bottom, if last week’s low is busted then the double bottom pattern can be considered a failure. That would be another bearish piece of evidence if it were to occur.
Bulls Likely to Appear Above 30.29
On the bullish side of the analysis, a sustained rally above Friday’s high of 30.29 would trigger a one-day bullish reversal and a reclaim of the 20-Day MA. Subsequently, a daily close above that high would confirm strength and put silver in a position to likely challenge the double bottom neckline at 31.54 and recent interim swing highs of 32.33.
During the recent bearish correction starting from the October swing highs, silver retained its uptrend price structure as support was seen at the rising internal trendline. This reflects a valid rising trend that remains in place. The trend can be assumed to continue until there is evidence to the contrary. Contrary evidence would first be indicated by a decisive decline below last week’s low.
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Gold & Silver Bull Has More Time Left Than You Think
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | December 16, 2024
Gold’s break out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern is likely the start of a new secular bull market.
However, as we wrote last week, a new secular bull market in the entire precious metals sector cannot begin until Gold breaks out against the conventional 60/40 investment portfolio.
Some are concerned that the weak relative performance indicates the bull market is over or that precious metals are dead money forever.
The reality is the secular bull market in precious metals has yet to start.
There are two key indicators to watch.
The first is Gold breaking out against the 60/40 portfolio, while the other is the S&P 500, after years of an uptrend, losing its 40-month moving average.
We plot the S&P 500, Gold against the 60/40 portfolio, and Gold.
The last two secular bull markets in Gold and precious metals ended 11 years after the S&P 500 reached its secular peak or 10 years after the S&P 500 lost its 40-month moving average (late 1969 and 2001).
Gold and precious metals peaked 9 years and 10 years after the Gold to 60/40 Portfolio ratio began its advance to the breakout.
At present, precious metals are trending higher, as they did with the stock market in the mid 1960s. That is the best historical comparison.
Even if in 2025, we get these bullish signals for precious metals (S&P 500 peaks, Gold breaks out against the 60/40 Portfolio), the secular bull market could last midway through the next decade. If the secular bull in the stock market continues for another 13 months, we could see a precious metals peak in 2036-2037.
When Gold begins to outperform the 60/40 Portfolio and stock market in earnest, Gold, Silver, and other leveraged plays will soar as fresh capital moves into the sector.
For now, it is best to position in the quality companies that will lead in the current macro environment.
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1 주 전
Silver Continues to See Support
By: Christopher Lewis | December 16, 2024
• The support level that we tested overnight seems to be intriguing enough for people to get involved, and now it looks like the silver market is ready to start recovering for the next few days.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver bounces early during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are going to try to turn the trend right back around to the upside. Underneath, we have a lot of support, especially in the form of the uptrend line and the crucial $30 level. As long as we can stay above the $30 level, I do believe that silver has a shot at going higher over the longer term and in the short term I think we’re going to go look to the 50 day EMA near the $31.10 level.
If we can break above there, then the possibility is that the market could go looking to the $32.35 level, an area that’s been like a brick wall. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities and I think that given enough time, we will continue to go much higher. If we can break above the $32.50 level, then we go looking to the $34.50 level. It’s really not until we break down below the 200 day EMA near the $29.33 level that I begin to worry about the overall trend.
We do have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Thursday, so that could be a little bit of an issue as far as volatility is concerned. We are very much still in an uptrend so I would expect more momentum to enter the market sooner or later. For those of you a bit concerned about dabbling in silver, you could also trade the gold market as it tends to be a bit more stable and there are certainly plenty of reasons to get long of it.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 31028 is immediately trading down about 4.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 32611. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 31108, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33330 intraday while it is still trading above last month's close of 31108.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31320 and support forming below at 30960. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 12.03%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30350. Additional support is to be found at 30940. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 주 전
Silver Continues to Look Bullish
By: Christopher Lewis | December 11, 2024
• The silver market has seen a bit of a pullback in the early hours of the Wednesday session, as the market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the markets are trying to sort out the interest rate situation around the world, and the industrial demand for the metal, making a bit different than the gold market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been all over the place during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to bang around just below the crucial $32.35 level. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that we could rip to the upside, perhaps looking towards the $34 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I believe needs to perhaps build up enough inertia and pressure in order to really get going. If and when we can take over the $32.35 level on a move to the upside, then you have the possibility of a continued FOMO trade.
Short-term pullbacks, I believe, will continue to see a lot of support at a particularly interesting area, the 50-day EMA at $31.21. In general, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting, but I do recognize that it placed second fiddle to gold and that is something that you always have to pay attention to. Luckily, it looks like gold is trying to pick things up. So that might just drag silver right along with it.
CPI numbers came in as expected, so that was a non-factor, and now we pay close attention to the Federal Reserve going forward. Ultimately, this is a market that will be watching the Fed and what it does going forward. The Fed is likely to get to the point where the statement will be the next major mover of markets, especially the metals.
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2 주 전
Silver Double Bottom Breakout Signals Bullish Continuation for Silver
By: Bruce Powers | December 9, 2024
• Silver broke out of a double bottom, reclaiming key MAs and confirming bullish momentum with a five-week high and an initial target of 33.87.
Silver broke out of a double bottom pattern on Monday as it rallied above 31.54 to hit a high of 32.28 for the day. That high completed a 50% retracement of the recent decline at 32.26. The advance also reclaimed the 50-Day MA at 31.71, further indicating strength. Also, silver pulled back from the high intraday. If it can close above 31.76, the double bottom breakout will be confirmed. And a daily close above the 50-Day line would provide an additional indication of strength.
Bullish Reversal Should Lead Higher
The minor swing low of 30.83 from last Friday provides near-term support along with the 20-Day MA, now at 30.79. If silver remains above the 20-Day line, it has a chance to continue to strengthen. Support for the recent correction was seen from the two bottoms at 29.68 and 29.64. Moreover, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was completed at 29.68. In addition, notice that support for the double bottom was seen around trendline support for the line declining from the May 2024 swing high.
Several Bullish Signs Today
Notice that today’s breakout followed a minor test of support around the purple 20-Day MA last Friday and again today with the day’s low of 30.87. A successful test of support around the 20-Day MA just prior to an upside breakout provides an additional bullish sign. The line was reclaimed on December 3, followed by a pullback to test support last Friday. Today’s advance confirms the signs of strength and triggered a bullish continuation of the small uptrend that began from the second bottom at 29.64.
Reaches Five-Week High
Today’s advance took silver to a five-week high. This further confirms strength as the higher time frame weekly chart (not shown) also shows a bullish breakout. Above today’s high of 32.28 will be the interim swing high of 32.51 from May at 32.51. There could be minor resistance seen there. The double bottom pattern provides a potential upside minimum target of 33.87. That is derived by measuring the price range from the top to bottom of the pattern and then adding it to the breakout level around 31.76.
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2 주 전
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 7, 2024
At this time, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31588. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31570 and overhead resistance forming above at 31615. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 7.798%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 29750. Resistance is to be found starting at 32460. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3 주 전
Silver At a Crossroads that Could Swing Either Way
By: Bruce Powers | December 2, 2024
• Silver's next move hinges on key resistance and support levels, with a potential double bottom forming against a backdrop of bearish continuation risks.
Silver is in an interesting technical position currently as it is compressed between several lines showing potential resistance and possible support. One or more of the lines is very close to breaking, which should assist in identifying the next possible direction for the price of silver.
There is a downtrend line that shows similar potential dynamic resistance to the 20-Day MA, which is at 30.85. It should be watched along with the minor daily swing high at 3.90 from Friday. There are two trendlines around recent lows that reflect potential support as well, one rising and one falling. They crossed on November 28.
Potential Double Bottom Established
Last week’s low of 29.64 was the second low recently. It led to a quick bullish recovery that day and into the following day (Friday). A second bottom of a potential double bottom pattern was thereby established. If silver strengthens above Friday’s high and keeps rising, it will have a chance to trigger the double bottom pattern.
An upside breakout is triggered on a rally above the neckline at 31.54. Notice that the 50-Day MA, which also marks a pivot level, is at 31.76 currently, slightly above the neckline. Another view of the current price range can be seen in the weekly chart (not shown), as it shows a three-week high at 31.54 and a low at 29.64.
Retaining Support
When considering the bigger picture, following a trend high of 34.87 on October 22, silver began to retrace its previous advance. That high looks to have completed a rising five-wave Elliott Wave structure. Support was subsequently seen at 29.68 on November 14 and last Friday at 29.64. Last Friday was a retest of support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Further, support has been seen around the trendline at the top of the prior retracement channel that started from top of wave-3 at 32.52. In other words, that is a full cycle back to prior trendline resistance that marked a bullish breakout price level.
Break Below 29.64 Could Lead Lower
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, a decisive drop through 29.64 will indicate a possible continuation of the bearish trend. Potential support then looks to be in a range from around 29.24, the 78.6% retracement, and the 200-Day MA, now at 29.15. Lower prices could also be in the works if the weekly lows fail to hold as support.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 30, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31108 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30930 and overhead resistance forming above at 31470. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.033%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30940. Resistance is to be found starting at 33260. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 주 전
Silver Bearish Engulfing Pattern Signals Weakness
By: Bruce Powers | November 25, 2024
• Resistance near the 20-Day MA and bearish momentum challenge silver's recovery, with key support at 29.68 aligning with Fibonacci and trendline levels.
Silver formed a one-day bearish engulfing pattern on Monday as sellers took control following a short pop to a four-day high of 31.48 earlier in the session. Resistance for the day was seen a little below the 20-Day MA (purple), now at 31.55. The subsequent decline followed a test of resistance around the 20-Day line is bearish behavior. And bearish sentiment will likely be confirmed with a daily close today below Friday’s low of 30.74.
Other bearish supporting evidence was recently indicated by the 20-Day MA crossing below the 50-Day MA (orange). Further, silver has been below resistance of the 50-Day line for 11 days after being above it previously. Although, recent daily highs failed to rise to the 50-Day line, but since it is close to the 20-Day line today’s bearish price action can also be considered a successful test of resistance at the 50-Day line.
Successful Test of 20-Day MA Resistance is Bearish
While silver is finding resistance just below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, it has been seeing support recently around the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29.68, an internal uptrend line, and a downtrend line. The bottom of the range is at the most recent swing low of 29.68, which matches the 61.8% price level. Therefore, until there is a decline below 29.68, silver has the potential to attempt to strengthen. However, a decisive decline below 29.68 will likely see silver retrace to the 78.6% level at 29.24, or the 200-Day MA at 28.96. Declines below either of the trendlines show weakening.
200-Day MA at 28.97 is Key Level
The long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, has marked a dynamic support for the uptrend since it was reclaimed on March 4. Subsequently, a successful test of support at the 200-Day line was completed at the early-August swing low of 26.47. If the 200-Day line is tested again, it be the second test of the line as support since it was reclaimed.
Since the decline started towards the 200-Day line began from the 34.87 trend high that was hit about a month ago, there is a good chance it will mark support again. In other words, since downward momentum began from the peak, by the time the 200-Day line is reached, if it is to be reached, selling pressure may have diminished by then.
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4 주 전
Gold & Silver Still Near Ground Floor Opportunity
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | November 25, 2024
Gold broke out from a 13-year cup and handle pattern earlier this year to a new all-time high and advanced to $2800/oz.
Silver broke out from 4-year resistance and recently reached an 11-year high, touching $35/oz.
However, the ongoing secular bull market in US Stocks and the emerging bubble in cryptocurrency have stolen its shine.
In nominal terms, Gold and Silver have made higher highs and are in a bull market.
But in real terms, Gold and Silver have barely moved off the ground floor.
Gold and Silver have yet to make progress against the conventional investment portfolio (the 60/40 portfolio) in the last 6 years.
They have yet to make a higher high since the secular bear market began at the end of 2011.
Near the end of 2011, the share of Gold ETFs against all ETF assets was 8%.
A few months ago, the share was barely 1%.
The last two secular bull markets in Gold peaked with Gold backing well over 100% of the monetary base. The legal mandate under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was 40% backing.
Backing has increased from an all-time low of 7% a few years ago to 12.4% today. Reaching the 2008 peak of nearly 30% would put the Gold price at almost $6,500/oz.
Gold and Silver have advanced quite a bit in recent years but remain cheap in real terms.
Relative to the stock market and the 60/40 portfolio especially, Gold and Silver remain on ground floor territory. The same can be said for their allocation relative to equities and their value against the monetary base.
The secular bull market in precious metals has barely started.
When Gold begins to outperform the 60/40 portfolio and stock market in earnest, Gold and precious metals will have moved beyond the ground floor.
Until then, one can position in quality junior companies that will lead the next leg higher.
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1 월 전
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31338 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 29750 yet it is trading below last month's close of 32796.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31485 and support forming below at 31125. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.268%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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1 월 전
Silver Has a Stable Week
By: Christopher Lewis | November 22, 2024
• The silver market is essentially stable at this point. It is mildly positive, but at the end of the day, it is a market that is still looking for its momentum to take off again. With this, I think that the effect of gold rallying will eventually catch on here as well.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a bit during the course of the week as the $30 level has offered significant support. The $30 level of course is a large round psychologically significant important number that we’ve been paying attention to for some time. So, I just don’t see a situation where you would have any need whatsoever to short this market anytime soon as it has been so important to stay above this $30 level and we have in fact done so.
Even if we were to break down below there, the 50-week EMA sits just about a dollar underneath. We’ve been in an uptrend for some time, and of course there are a lot of concerns around the world about protecting wealth, and while silver isn’t necessarily the same thing as gold, it does tend to move in the same general direction, and gold is absolutely on fire right now, so I think gold will end up dragging silver higher, as it will often do. This is a correlation trade more than anything else at this point.
Speaking of higher, I suspect that silver is probably going to try to target the $35 level, which was where we struggled at previously. I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not at the moment, and I do think that silver continues to be a mildly bullish market, basically just riding the coattails of gold, which of course, as I said previously, has been on fire.
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1 월 전
Silver Continues to Bounce
By: Christopher Lewis | November 19, 2024
• The silver market bounced again in the early hours of the Tuesday session, as we continue to see the momentum from the bounce at the crucial $30 level play a big part. The markets all continue to see a lot of traders get involved, as the gold market has been leading the way, with silver following.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied a bit during the early hours of Tuesday and at this point in time is threatening the 50 day EMA. If the market were to continue going higher, I don’t see much stopping it from going to the $32 level, and then possibly even as high as $35. Underneath current trading conditions are still supportive, with the $30 level being a massive support level, followed by the 200 day EMA. Keep in mind that silver is extraordinarily volatile, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we have bounced here, nor would it be a huge surprise to see a little bit of a pullback.
That being said, gold has been rallying and that typically will drag silver right along with it. So, at this point in time, it looks like we are in fact trying to continue the overall uptrend in what has been a pretty bullish asset since March of this year. If we were to somehow break above the $35 level, and I don’t expect that to happen in the short term, that could lead to much bigger things.
Silver, of course, is a bigger contract position size-wise than the gold market. So, make sure you have that settled before you put any money to work. If we were to turn around and break down below the 200 day EMA, which is near the $29 level, that could change a lot of things. But right now, it looks like silver is trying to recover and continue the overall uptrend.
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1 월 전
Silver Counter-Trend Rally Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | November 18, 2024
• Silver rebounds strongly, reaching a five-day high as it targets key resistance levels, with buyers eyeing 50-Day and 20-Day moving averages.
Silver triggered a bullish reversal on Monday, as it rallied to a five-day high of 32.27 before stalling. The five-day high is at 31.15 and silver is currently trading around that price level. A daily close above that high would provide an additional piece of evidence supporting a continuation of the bounce into higher potential resistance levels. Nonetheless, silver is on track to close strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. A strong close signifies improving demand that remains in control till the close, and therefore possibly longer.
Decisive Bull Hammer Reversal
A false breakout of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern potential bottom occurred last Friday as the day ended near the lows of the day after an earlier daily upside breakout triggered above Thursday’s high. Silver rebounded strongly and is set to complete a bullish daily pattern reflected in the long green body. This puts silver in sight of a test of possible resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at 31.67. It could get there quickly. A reclaim of the 50-Day line shows the 20-Day MA around 32.31 as the next higher target. Also, watch the May swing high at 32.52 if the 20-Day line is approached.
Targets 31.67 and 32.31
Today looks to be the beginning of a counter-trend rally following the breakdown of key price levels over the past couple of weeks. Therefore, the expectation is for an eventual turnback down once higher resistance levels are tested. However, support seen last week at 29.68 has a chance of holding. It was a test of support around the declining trendline at the top of a trend channel. And it was further indicated by finding support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29.67. But given the additional signs of weakness seen in the drop below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, a recovery doesn’t look like it would proceed without some up and down movement.
Short-term Weakness Likely to See Buyers
For now, short-term weakness seems likely to see continued support and signs of demand. As the counter-trend rally progresses it should start to provide clues as to important price levels and patterns to watch for clearer signs of demand.
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1 월 전
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 30432 and is trading up about 26% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 29750 yet it is trading below last month's close of 32796.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30570 and support forming below at 30280. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 30940. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen as the stochastics are beginning to flatten out since the previous low at 26505 made 14 weeks Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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1 월 전
Silver Continues to Look For Momentum to The Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | November 13, 2024
• The silver continues to see a lot of interest from traders, as the $30 level has offered a bit of support over the last 48 hours. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index numbers have come and gone, with readings being as expected, and now we continue to see value hunting.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a little bit during the early hours on Wednesday, and now that we have the consumer price index numbers coming out of the United States basically as expected, I think the market is breathing a sigh of relief and silver is starting to gain as a result. We do have the 50-day EMA sitting just above that could cause a little bit of resistance, but ultimately, I think that is but a minor footnote when it comes to what happens next. Over the longer term, I fully anticipate that this market will go looking to much higher levels, perhaps to the $32.50 level.
That’s an area that’s been important multiple times, and therefore it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this market react to that. Anything above the $32.50 level then opens up the possibility of going all the way back to the swing high, which is at the $35 level. Keep in mind that silver is an extraordinarily volatile contract under the best of circumstances, and it is bigger than gold, so don’t trade it with a massive position size.
I have seen a lot of retail traders wipe their accounts out trading silver thinking it behaves exactly the same as gold. It really doesn’t. There are other fundamentals you have to think of, although some do overlap, such as interest rates. Silver is an industrial metal, so we’ll have to see how that comes into play, but really at this point in time, I think the most important thing to notice is that we have the $30 level offering support, and it does look like it’s going to hold.
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