Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) 옵션

Jimbo50

Yes, it seems that way! My thinking is that the short interests want to protect their inventory (short positions) and will try to stop the advance, but there comes a time when that no longer works!

That's my bias which, I believe, is backed up by the fact that the 9 day range was broken to the upside and will serve as support.

I don't think we'll remain fighting the down slant too much long.

Troll.🚽

Thanks for bringing that to the board.

Can you provide any insight into that trading strategy?

The $10 were about $1.75. The $10 calls were about 50¢. The 100K shares were at $8.80.

We don't know if those were bought or sold options. I assume they were bought.

How would that trading strategy work and what would be the expectations for making money? I'm not nearly educated enough on options to make any guesses.

I agree; I am aware of those details.

We have seen this disapproval argument, but my parenthetical "(citation missing)" indicates its lack of support. I am being polite by listing it.

I think two of the four con arguments I listed are bogus.

Prevented by HIPAA laws not HEPAA laws.

Anavex and Dr. Missling cannot discuss personal issues related to people in their trials.

GOD bless,

I doubt it. HIPA went out the window during Covid. 

Prevented by HEPAA laws.

Anavex and Dr. Missling cannot discuss personal issues related to people in their trials.

GOD bless,

I hate feeding this silly beast, but

Why not just ask Missling?

Very good summary, thanks.

However, that one isn't correct as far as I know, quote: 3. The trial failed to meet the ADCS-ADL functional primary endpoint, which is required by the EMA (Citation missing).

It was or is a requirement by the FDA, but they were talking about removing it.

The second co-primary endpoint of activities of daily living scale (ADCS-ADL), was trending positive but did not reach significance. Anavex is questioning whether this miss is due to the scale being less sensitive for early Alzhimer’s disease. (see link)

It did reach the endpoint in the OLE (doesn't count though).

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/anavex-seek-ema-approval-shaky-results/?cf-view&cf-closed

Will ADMIN please consider the
George v BioChecker
detrimental to the MB and

Give each a time out!!!!????

No Ern Heaven is still alive and taking oral blarcamesine daily



GOD bless,

No. Ern is dead. He died from Alzheimer’s disease sometime before his wife died.

Good luck and ERN is dead.

Ern Heaven is still alive and taking Anavex's oral blarcamesine each and every day!!!



Let's all wish Ern Heaven and his wife Margaret Heaven a very happy and healthy Easter in 2025!!!

I am hoping that Ern and Margaret Heaven both have long healthy lives.

GOD bless,

Awesome breakdown, thank you boi...!

Nope. He’s dead. Died of Alzheimer’s disease.

Good luck and ERN is dead.

Let's review the bidding on the MAA being considered by the EMA, and set out the factors favoring an approval recommendation, and the factors favoring disapproval, to see where things stand. (Keep in mind that the EMA is using a benefit/risk model, so the lower the risk, the lower threshold for benefit):

Factors favoring an approval recommendation

1. The blarcamesine 2b/3 trial demonstrated unprecedentedly clinically meaningful, cognitive efficacy against Alzheimer's Disease.
2. The 2b/3 trial also demonstrated efficacy in the CDR-SB scale, equal to the best competitor but reaching that point more quickly.
3. Blarcamesine has shown no safety issues in the 2b/3 trial or any other trial, including the Rett pediatric trial.
4. Adverse treatment events in titration phase are minor, manageable, and pass quickly (9.6 percent transient dizziness in the OLE).
5. After 48 weeks, brain volume MRI values (a prespecified measurement), show a dramatic reduction in volume decline, with particularly strong results in the areas of the brain most associated with early AD; in those areas, there was little to no volume loss, perhaps even a volume gain. (Not an formal biomarker, albeit a compelling and unprecedented outcome).
6. Anavex reported in narrative terms there was and favorable plasma-based AB 42/40 ratio response. (Unclear if this is a formal biomarker or not, depending upon the type of plasma test used.)
7. Anavex found, without pre specification, a strong association between the presence of the collagen gene COL24A1 WT and cognitive performance among the dosed arm of the 2b/3. (Not a formal biomarker, but intriguing in light of the role of the collagen gene to promote neuronal growth).
8. Publication of a peer-reviewed, favorable article in a leading Alzheimer's journal with 58 signatories, including Marwan Sabbagh.
9. The Anavex OLE successfully used an early start/delayed start analysis (recognized by the EMA) to support the argument that blarcamesine is a disease modifying treatment for AD.
10. There is a great unmet need in the EU for an effective AD drug, medically, socially and financially.
11. Anavex's trial design and analyses support a solid scientific underpinning to its first in class MOA, including trial results that tie the drug to its Sigma 1 receptor target.
12. There is also recent and growing scientific literature increasingly recognizing the immunological significance of the Sigma 1 receptor.
13. Anavex has enlisted experienced and respected staff, such as Kun Jin, Marwan Sabbagh, and David Goldberger to support the MAA process.
14. The week after an 80 day letter was to have been sent to Anavex by EMA reviewers indicating whether or not the application is likely to be considered approvable or not, Anavex apparently sent its lobbyist Nell Robowe to DC to meet with Sen. Cruz's office to provide support for his legislation to quickly piggyback FDA approvals upon EMA approvals. In the same period of time, CEO Missling costlessly exercised his large options, adding to his equity position in Anavex stock. Neither of these events is consistent with the company having received a disapproval indication from the likely 80 day letter.
15. At this stage in the MAA review process, over 80 percent and perhaps over 90 percent (depending on the time period examined) of MAA applications receive an approval application.

Factors favoring a disapproval recommendation

1. Anavex cannot receive an EMA approval recommendation on the basis of only one Phase 3 trial (notwithstanding its acceptance for MAA review). (Citation missing)
2. Upon review, the 2b/3 trial will be found to be inadequately sized for such a major indication as Alzheimer's, requiring a second, properly sized Phase 3 trial.
3. The trial failed to meet the ADCS-ADL functional primary endpoint, which is required by the EMA (Citation missing).
4. Anavex may fail to satisfy a requirement that current analyses have not taken into account, such as a manufacturing or data integrity issue.

Tom Bishop, BI Research: "We’re hoping for some word from Europe around mid-year or is that the timeline?" Christopher Missling: "We will expect the review to take 210 days since filing... We expect the feedback for the review to complete by the end of this year."

Bishop asked about upcoming events. Missling outlined the anticipated schizophrenia trial readout for ANAVEX 3-71 in the first half of 2025, the detailed ATTENTION-AD data presentation in April, and updates on the Parkinson’s disease program.

Bishop inquired about support from stakeholders. Missling explained that the company is receiving increasing advocacy support due to the unmet need for Alzheimer's treatments and ongoing discussions with pharmaceutical companies regarding marketing and partnerships.

When asked about the crystalline patent, Missling emphasized its significance, noting that it protects the composition of matter used in prior clinical studies and extends coverage until 2039.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/anavex-projects-ema-feedback-on-alzheimer-s-drug-by-year-end-2025/ar-AA1yUiFd

Good luck and GOD bless,

Who is Tom Bishop?

Looking him up I found this recently published study of the Sigmar1 receptor - that sure looks promising for Anavex.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsptsci.4c00564

Keep up the good work, George. You are living rent free in Biocchecker's head. He's obsessed with the possibility that you could cause someone to buy 100 shares. 

Ern Heaven is alive and well and still benefitting from taking Anavex's oral blarcamesine capsule each and every day!!!



GOD bless,

No-one knows when a buyout offer might be made. Personally I would prefer the partnership/buyout model seen in the Roche/Genentech takeover completed in 2009. It was for $47 billion...or in 2025 dollars... $70 billion. My opinion is that blarcamesine and Anavex 3-71 will transform the treatment of many CNS diseases. Any takeover would require a high triple digit share price IMO! I am looking forward to the upcoming Anavex 3-71 data, the EMA approval of blarcamesine and a large partnership leading to a buyout!

Ern is dead and the stock closed down. Nobody is anticipating news tomorrow or later this week!!!

Good luck and ERN is dead.

The May 2025 Call is about when the 2nd fiscal quarter earrings call and update will have occurred.

GOD bless,

Look at the AVXL stock price graph today!!!

Does someone expect good news tomorrow or at least later this week???

Good luck and GOD bless,

Please, watch and listen regarding to AVXL

https://wsw.com/webcast/needham146/register.aspx?conf=needham146&page=avxl&url=https://wsw.com/webcast/needham146/avxl/2275487

Good luck and GOD bless,

Alzheimer Europe:
https://www.alzheimer-europe.org/news/anavex-presents-results-phase-2b/3-open-label-extension-trial-early-ad

Old m ..... what would that weekly chart show if you make the Fib measurement from a 3.50 bottom to a 13.50 top.... something like that. I like to adjust it sometimes, playing around with the different tops and bottoms. It might show us why the 7.50 area is important, 8 dollar, 9, etc.... I don't necessarily think 14.40 spike is the best place to call a top. I get a better look when I measure to 14.

Blarcamesine once orally daily restores autophagy through SIGMAR1 activation ->
corroborated MoA by pre-specified SIGMAR1 gene analysis:

Greater significant
clinical benefit, — ADAS-Cog13 at 48 Weeks by 49.8% — experienced by Common
SIGMAR1 WT gene carriers (~70% of general population) compared to ITT population

Slide #22

https://www.anavex.com/_files/ugd/79bcf7_4e15217c129541228327838b534afe4d.pdf

Good luck and GOD bless,

Large block of 100,000 shares traded at $8.80 at 3:50 EST. At the same time 1,000 contracts of the May 10 Calls and 1,000 contracts of the May 10 PUTS went thru. Definitely an institution or hedge fund placing their bets.

AVXL Closed at $8.82 the a volume of 695,206 shares bought today.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/avxl/after-hours

Good luck and GOD bless,

Yeah our little stock is flying now reaching all kinds of new heights ...hey can you post that video of ERN again I really don't understand it although I've seen it like a hundred times I would like to see another one please post

The OLE data is not worthless. It provides some long term safety data and it shows the effects of laying off of the drug.

A regulator would look at that data and classify it as suggestive.
The regulators will look at the trial data and give that much more weight in the decision making process. The trial will be approved or fail on that data.
If the evaluation of the trial is very close to the pass/fail point the OLE data might make a difference. Otherwise for a regulator to give that data serious weight a trial would have to be run to specifically test those effects.

Those participants were self selected, that population incorporated survivor bias, the numbers were small, and it was open label. All of those reasons and some others are why the data would be considered suggestive in nature.

With all that said, the data was still very good to see. It supports 2-73 and the efficacy of the treatment.

Expect the AVXL stock price to close at or near the high of the day!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

What happened to trigonometric prediction?
Kund
Projection, not prediction.
The 1.618 projection from head to neckline is 2.81: https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_4a13984f55c55f17d18b0c9ae231010e.png

Pretty likely some Investors and Docs on this board are paid to be here. Standard protocol for entities with a large short position. Seems a waste of talent, but it is the choice they make. When they get old and look back...not much to be proud of.

No more angles? What happened to trigonometric prediction?

I'm looking at the 5 day/5 minute chart.
Here's Weekly: https://invst.ly/19--xv https://invst.ly/1a003z

Steve, do you count Elliott Waves ? I'm looking at the 5 day/5 minute chart. Others as well. From the 7.27 bottom to today's pop and drop around 9 dollars, I'm seeing the first rally wave 7.27 to around 8.75 area. (the 8.75/8.85 is a shoulder resistance step now)
We could call that first rally Wave 1. The Wave 2 pullback to 8.08. And now we would be looking at the developing Wave 3 , if that's happening. Your mention of low volume here ... is not feeling like a Wave 3 in that regard.
8.08 runs 1 dollar, and turns down from 9.07 to the present, 8.60 area.
A good Wave 3 with volume and momentum, might be what we'd see if we get good news very soon. Would that timing coincide in the next week or two, we might see a big jump like you're anticipating. At the moment I'm watching the current pullback to see if 8.50 area holds as good support And also watching to see if resistance 8.80 shows any strength. There's a dollar target for either side. 8.80 down to 7.80, or 8.50 up to 9.50.
That's about all I'm watching right now.
Swing Wave support bullish/neutral bias holding 8.50 area looking upward. Bearish/neutral bias watching for 8.75 shoulder to roll over and tumble back to test 8.00/7.90/7.80 area. Just some targets I'm looking at.

Anavex Life Sciences Is Scheduled to Fiscal 2025 Second Quarter Financial Results and Provide Business Update Within the Next 3 to 4 Weeks

Good luck and GOD bless,

Every move up ( momentum) always gets cut off at the knees … disappointing today

Clock stop #1 is scheduled to occur within about 2 weeks from TODAY!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

It wouldn't hurt to hear that the MAA is being treated like any other MAA - a good reminder to the market that the wheels are turning.

Being the good Catholic boy I am & during Holy Week, I will say I hope you're right but this it getting quite old for a debate especially with Clock Stop One approaching around April 25th or so....have a Happy Easter and I do enjoy a lot of your other links to upcoming events, patent filings, etc. and ALSO your breakdown of various biotech achievements....those stand out to me!

I would think that Chris Missling would give us some sort of indication that we are progressing forward after that date has passed; I know he does not have to since they will be answering questions, but these things do have a way of influencing the trading activities.

And the brain volume data look good.

Ern Heaven is still alive and taking Anavex's oral Blarcamesine capsule each and every day.

Wishing Ern Heaven a very happy, healthy and joyous Easter in 2025.



Good luck and GOD bless,

I think you already know the answer to that question. If "doc" had any expertise, education, or experience then he wouldn't be asking slanted questions of ChatGPT. We all know that AI is the perfect example of "garbage in, garbage out": ask a slanted question then you get a slanted answer. For example, 12X weighed in with his ChatGPT info purported that the US FDA would LOVE 2-73 submission now because, well, all the US sites in the -004 trial! (there were none.)

The OLE data looked good. And the COL24A1 variant data looked good, too. Will it be enough for approval? I don't know. There is a good chance it will be because the EMA already knew that was all the ammo Anavex could bring to the shooting match, but accepted the submission anyway. I don't think the EMA would waste their time if the data was not enough.

I can understand the criticism of the trials and size - I make the same criticisms all the time. But, the EMA was nonplussed. Go Europe!

mayo

Wow! do I ever agree with that! It takes 2 to tango and I think they have both been on the dance floor for way too long! Oh wait, I think I saw Ern turn the page on that book and blink....ha ha

What in the heck? For me with this extremely light volume I have to assume that with the general market fizzling out we are seeing a "back test" to the broken 50 day of last week for $AVXL. (a 9 day range pattern)...

I'm kind of disappointed, but can't change my view from bullish, not at this point!

The market always finds a way to slap me in the face.......

😡

Is the OLE data really worthless as Doc says with his ChatGPT analysis? Seems that this is selecting for only those who benefited but if they are being compared to the placebo group even out 4 years, does not seem worthless at all. it is real data and real people benefiting

Biochecker I am the DUMMY who found and posted the WRONG MARGARET. Yes I made a mistake. Then a FEW DAYS ago someone posted a link
to ALL DEATHS IN AUSTRALIA. I searched that list for. Ern Heaven, Ernest Heaven, Margaret Heaven. It took about 8 hours to search through the MILLIONS listed. The list allows search starting in 1980 to present. I searched 1917 until today. I found ZERO NONE NADA references to any of those names. I would say at this point unless Ern and Margaret Heaven MOVED to some other country and passed away that BOTH are still alive in AU someplace.
John k9uwa