Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) 옵션

OVER Priced tech rally due to crash next

week when SMCI reports...

25% metal tariff and 10% Country tariffs

are enough to hurt things...

31.05 gap open from Tuesday high to

Wednesday open on 04/22 telegraphs

likely dump on earnings release to

go back and fill that gap...

Enough of the good news...

Keep your cheer leader outfit pressed...

SMCI has to disconnect from the pump and

dump orchestra playing the Index companies

now to do better price wise ahead...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI has held support better than most stocks. Still, (currently) $43.23 is the resistance it needs to break through.

Getworks in Japan collaborated with GX Technology

to deploy SuperMicro product...

https://www.supermicro.com/CaseStudies/Success_Story_Getworks_SMCI_Liquid_Cooling.pdf?utm_content=330833841&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-160720263987353


Who are the big shorts on SMCI?...


so we watch...LJ

https://www.wixmarket.com/marketnews

Market is going to clobbered, we haven't seen nothing yet, only the beginning....

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SMCI/steel-dome-and-supermicro-unite-to-power-ai-driven-hyperconverged-p7jv8ccie3gl.html

https://steeldomecyber.com/supermicro?hsCtaAttrib=186761134507

https://wiki.steeldome.com/

https://www.telarus.com/suppliers/steeldome-cyber/


Expand margins and buyers will come..

so we watch...LJ

Around 4 billion short of low 20 billion

market cap seems targeted...

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/SMCI/short-interest/

In theory, it leaves around 70 to 85 million

of the trading float not shorted when

institutions and hedges hold shares...

depends on whose numbers you use...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics/

It has stayed high...



so we watch...LJ

Are there examples of this sort of short percentage in a legitimate and profitable company? If the short position is that large it will take a major spike to force a squeeze. I think we’re past any catalyst of that caliber, unless there’s something unknown and unexpected that comes along.

Not holding my breath!

SMCI having new plant in Malaysia to serve

foreign buyers may be important now...

https://english.news.cn/20250415/175450d9087c488b9766598e15cc7c80/c.html

Well, until more sanity prevails...

Ai says, the world is not flat...

so we watch...LJ

Just don't put tariffs on San Jose, California...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/supermicro-expands-us-manufacturing-capacity-and-development-of-industry-leading-total-it-solutions-with-third-campus-in-silicon-valley-302388987.html

'Made in America' should matter...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI shows about 26% of float short...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics/

them bears are slick...

what they gonna do?,what they gonna do?...

when the squeeze comes for them?...


so we watch...LJ

Total chaos, military has also been assigned to the border.

Restoring auto jobs and building chips in

U.S. is needed...

https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/14/nvidia-says-it-plans-to-manufacture-some-ai-chips-in-the-u-s/

geesh, things change fast...


so we watch...LJ

None of that was in place yet, new

tariff for tech sector could be longer

lasting after being separated...


Lot of volatility over what is still

yet to come...

Metal tariff of 25% on metals is already

in place...

Many Job losses in auto sector are already

into the layoff lines already...

Loss of sales in China for U.S. companies

is gonna be a biggie because of tariffs...

Hard to see much chance of accurate

guidance from companies at this time...

Tariff rift is likely shifting order flow from

U.S. companies more than toward it...

Tariff related reductions will take time to

move into the economy...

Give it to mid May to watch for possible

sudden change from what is in motion

already and not just threatened...

so we watch...LJ

Trump decided to back peddle tariffs on chip makers and phones, market is roaring back.

$19ish gap fill seems unlikely, but G.S.

is leading earnings to start Monday...

May need the whole cheerleader squad

next week around here after all the put

buying last Thursday for this Thursday...

A shortened week of earnings ahead...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI saw the put to call ratio surge

on Thursday for next week's contracts...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/options?expiration=2025-04-11-w&moneyness=20

Large amount of bearish wagers...

Friday drop would give largest returns

to traders on those trades...

A contract volume to watch...

$28 calls for Friday showed about 220 contracts

at sale prices between $6 and $7...

A close around or below $28 on Friday would

net all that premium...

Or it could be traded out for gains...

Biggest volume may not always be the best

watch if one buyer or seller is smarter or

just down right luckier...

Don't remember seeing so much put buying

over calls before than on Thursday...

Sentiment is likely pushing that activity...

U.S. Dollar getting weaker pressures interest

rates up just when all the buyers of the

market dip don't need it...


So we watch...LJ

Yesterday was the dead cat bounce. Will retest lows IMO. Still bullish over the next year though.

It’s fine. I suspect we’re not out of the woods yet. Hoping a few months from now things will settle down. Crazy time.

Oh. Ok. Sorry. I copied that link from another board. I really didn’t look at it, I only wanted to highlight that quote about the 90 days.

😄

Your link is to The Conservative Treehouse.

fake rally, Ai orders should start getting paused

as other biz orders slow...

AAPL could be leader in spending pauses...

nothing changed since Friday...

tariffs in place still,

10% Universal tariffs on imports,
like coffee, toilet paper, etc...

exception is Canada and Mexico,

at 25% unless product is in free trade agreement...

25% on metal imports,
includes beer in cans,

25% on foreign cars...

big exception is China at 30% on Friday,

until newest tariffs start at who the phock knows?...

104%? to 125%? 30% ain't cheap now on
all the TOYS and replacement parts coming in...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/business/reciprocal-tariff-pause-trump/index.html

Next market drop should be sincere...

Much higher import prices will be reflected more

in the drop of actual unit flow of goods than in the

much higher tally of price of goods imported...

Layoffs come from reduced unit volume...

Lower margins come from higher costs...

Less inventory like lumber on Pacific coast...

It is not complicated...

Take same money and buy what you can...

You know, Like under Joe, only worse...


so we watch...LJ

Treehouse?

Thanks. Love the Treehouse!

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/04/09/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-provides-clarity-and-details-surrounding-90-pause-baseline-10-tariffs-and-chinese-tariffs-at-125-and/

April 9, 2025 | Sundance | 292 Comments


US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives details on the China tariff increase and the 90 day tariff pause on other countries.

As outlined in the press remarks, 75 countries have contacted the White House to renegotiate their access to the U.S. consumer market. Secretary Bessent noted, each of these new trade agreements needs to be handled independently and “President Trump wants to be personally involved in each one. That’s why there is a 90-day pause.”

Bessent revisited his prior comments and warning to global trade partners about not retaliating to last week’s announcement. The hostile response from China was the triggering mechanism for the tariff increase. WATCH..... (vid at link above)

There will be another shoe dropping. When is the question. I haven’t seen much news to learn what happened that caused the switch. Was it sentiment, or were there so many countries looking to negotiate they had to pause to evaluate? Maybe it was a wake up call to other nations that the U.S. isn’t Big-Daddy Warbucks anymore.

Crazy times. But will investors trust that it’s safe to back in the water? The Dow was up almost $3k today.

SMCI lower gap, iphone prices soaring seems

to have boosted sentiment today...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/tech/apple-iphones-cost-tariffs-impact-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-prices-trump-tariff-impact-cost-timeline-2025-4

been taking some big losses today

to trim down during the festivities...

good to know things are great again...

so we watch...LJ

Great reversal after the 90 days pause. He had no choice.

Not sure why our numbers would be different? If I go out to a monthly chart I can see a $29+ support I guess.
Support lines are support lines for a reason. I believe (and know) many big boys who use these as indicators, and I believe this is why they work. However, its important to use same technicals as they do.
Long ago I quit asking why they work so well and just accept them.
Now, if you want a crazy belief system!....a couple of years ago I did a private tour of Yellowstone and the guide was discussing these....


Yellowstone's hydrothermal ecosystems, like Grand Prismatic Spring, harbor unique life forms, including thermophiles (microorganisms thriving in hot temperatures) and plants like warm spring spikerush, which form floating mats in thermal waters.

Now, she was telling me these thermophiles have a brain and their movement is not just random.....Now THAT! Will blow your mind to think about.

On mine, I've got the weekly support on $29.47. I see that as a little more realistic in terms of where things have been lately. Kind of surprised its holding that right now honestly.

I focus on weekly charts, therefore to me, it all depends on where it finishes the week. I see support at $32.31 currently.
I think too many people here try to use very short term charts and therefore unreliable trends, supports, and resistances.
It also gives false chart patterns. I've seen too many people think they are seeing a cup and handle, where in reality it isn't even close to that.
Not that I'm saying you're wrong.

You want me to tag in as team leader?

Lots to worry about. Que sera sera!

Uncharted territory for market now...

23.88 is gap that is easy to remember

from memory...

another bottom test of 27 to 28 area would

need to hold to keep things more stable...

Too much up buying on Monday and Tuesday

raise the question...

Was too much spent by buyers at higher prices

and not leaving enough for bottom support?...

SMCI isn't alone in being volatile now...


so we watch...LJ

I did it on purpose so you can chime in.

Quite the whipsaw today.

LOL...sorry to laugh, but I found this funny...

Not saying it will happen, just an opinion

Ummm, that's kinda what an opinion is, saying something will happen.

I think you are spot on around the $27 range for now. This pop to $35 isn't going to hold into next week I don't think.

SMCI shows support in 27 to 28 range

to maybe day trade from until the

mess gets cleared up...

teens is just too low to imagine for most...

20% China tariff, sales tax increase, is already

in the system and will start affecting prices...

10% tariff on most imports started on Friday

will take a week to weeks to move into prices

depending on shipping distance from U.S....

It is all sales tax increase equivalent on

everyone in supply chain or buyer...

Either seller eats some of added cost or

passes it on to the buyers...

It is a total of 10% either way...

25% tariff on foreign autos imported...

25% on metal imported...is the local recycler

gonna give us 25% more on aluminum

cans now?...heck no...

Carrot of lower gasoline price being dangled

to get buyers to pay higher prices isn't likely

to change or increase...

It wasn't it Trump M.O. in past term...

A higher tax rate on big earning corporations

and wealthy wage earners should have been

done instead of tasking the lower and middle

class to pay higher costs for tariff collections

to fund an over spending U.S. Gov't...

SPY has room to drop, but there will be

some uneven losing on a negative trend...

Or all the tariff rift could get dropped and

in 3 to 6 months things could normalize...

Let us hope for better than worse...

so we watch...LJ

All valid points. Thanks for the insight.

I never said, in one whole day or week or month, so lets just assume some numbers, I believe S & P will hit 4000-4500 by August maybe even sooner, if Trump doesn't back out from the Tariffs, but you also have to consider if a war broke out between the US and Iran, which Trump absolutely will not shy away, if Iran doesn't listen to him, oil prices will rocket up to 100 dollars overnight and possibly over a span hit 150 dollars, that in itself is inflationary, plus the tariffs, it definitely doesn't look good, we haven't even seen the affects of the tariffs, you won't see those tariffs hikes of 20-25% until after 60-90 days, when it is transferred to the consumers, that's called inflation too. If S & P hit 4000, yes we could see high single to low double digits.

That's fair - it just seems like those conditions taking this down to single digits would be a doomsday scenario.

Not saying it will happen, just an opinion, waiting to see if the US and Israel going to bomb Iran and 3 month of wait to see how these tariffs are going to affect the consumers, other than that everything is based on assumption, just like I assumed this will play out like CARVANA and hit 200 dollars by August of this year, with the market meltdown and the World in chaos and possible war with Iran, it doesn't look good.

Okay, you showed that you can bounce,

but do you have the legs to

keep it up?...

cheerleader tryouts on 04/09/25...

so we watch...LJ

Single digits is quite bold..... That would be a major upset.

ns Fung, He's been SMCI biggest cheerleader. What's up with that Dino? Please share

Man, it is teetering! But our biggest cheerleader here is calling for single digits. That's brutal!!
Have I become the new head cheerleader?

Beat the overall market today but has done that before and then dived.

Not yet I'm afraid....but we could be headed there.
Right now there are too many people in the category of "we've seen corrections before. don't panic and if anything, buy more".
We are a ways away from "hunker down and pray" or "get yourself a good gun and watch out for your neighbors"

It's a dog eat dog eat World now, every man for himself.