By William Boston
Elon Musk has long had the stage to himself as he championed
zero-emission vehicles, and his upstart company, Tesla Motors Inc.,
became the touchstone for battery-powered cars.
When nearly half a million Tesla fans paid $1,000 each this
spring to reserve the company's next-generation Model 3 ahead of
its late-2017 launch, many auto executives scoffed.
"Let's see if they can build them," Thomas Weber, board member
in charge of research and development at Daimler AG, said at the
time.
Now, the enormous hype around Tesla's Model 3 preorders,
consumer demand and looming emissions regulation appears to have
combined to jolt conventional auto makers into action.
At the Paris Auto Show, which begins this week, the world's
biggest auto makers are unveiling plans to accelerate development
of electric vehicles. About two dozen new electric vehicles are set
to debut and there will be announcements by Volkswagen AG, Porsche
AG and Daimler that demonstrate how Tesla's achievements are
spurring conventional auto makers to respond. In particular, the
big German brands will release several vehicles squarely targeting
Tesla's hold on the luxury end of the electric-vehicle market.
Volkswagen will unveil a new electric vehicle, expected to go
into production in 2020, that runs on a battery, is fully connected
to the internet and contains an array of self-driving features.
"This car is to fight Tesla and the others, not our conventional
competitors," said Herbert Diess, head of the Volkswagen
passenger-car brand. "We have to take them very seriously. It's not
rocket science. The other competitors are making great
progress."
Until now, government incentives have driven the adoption of
electric vehicles in many markets. Norway and the Netherlands, two
of the smallest auto markets, became the biggest markets for
electric vehicles through subsidies and other incentives to promote
electric cars, which are still more expensive than conventional
gasoline and diesel vehicles.
But over the next decade stricter emissions targets in Europe,
the U.S. and China will increase the costs of developing
conventional combustion engines. Falling battery costs will also
make electric vehicles more competitive. By 2030, AlixPartners, a
consultancy, predicts that electric vehicles will largely replace
diesel, especially in smaller cars.
"This will go down as one of those years where it all started to
change, " says Andrew Bergbaum, managing director at
AlixPartners.
European Union sales of electric vehicles -- battery-powered,
extended-range vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and plug-in hybrids --
rose 17% to 70,127 vehicles in the first half of this year from the
same period last year, according to the European Automobile
Manufacturers' Association.
The diesel crisis sparked by Volkswagen's emissions-cheating
scandal has also prompted the acceleration of development of
electric vehicles, says Mr. Bergbaum.
Diesel-powered-cars' share of sales in Europe, currently around
18%, is beginning to wane, according to Jato Dynamics Ltd., a
consumer research group.
Over the next decade, plug-in hybrids are expected to replace
diesels, according to a study by AlixPartners.
In Paris, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand is expected to unveil a
battery-powered sport-utility vehicle, a direct competitor to
Tesla's Model X, which will have a range of 310 miles on a single
charge and is slated to launch in 2020. Moreover, Daimler said in
June that it is planning electric versions of its conventional
models, supported by a EUR500 million (about $552 million)
investment in a new battery factory.
Audi AG, the luxury car maker owned by Volkswagen, is readying
production of its Audi Q6 E-Tron crossover that will go into
production in 2018. Audi also is planning fuel cell and plug-in
hybrid versions of the Q6 as well as three other new electric cars
due in 2020. By 2025, electric vehicles will account for a quarter
of the company's car sales, said Audi Chief Executive Rupert
Stadler in July.
Sports car maker Porsche, also owned by Volkswagen, will launch
a plug-in hybrid version of its sporty Panamera sedan that will
combine a 462-horsepower 2.9-liter V-6 twin turbo engine built by
Audi with an electric motor that has 136 horsepower.
But Porsche's big leap into electric autos comes with its
Mission-E, which was unveiled at last year's Frankfurt Auto Show
and is expected to be built beginning in 2020.
Paris also will see the launch of a number of mass-market
electric cars.
Volkswagen plans 30 new electric vehicle models over the next
decade; by 2025, one of every four cars it sells will be pure
electric or plug-in hybrid, the company has said.
General Motors Co. launched the Chevrolet Bolt in the U.S. and
will follow in Paris with the Ampera-E, a battery-powered compact
that resembles BMW AG's i3 electric city-car.
Amid the rush, some are more cautious. For instance, BMW
recently extended the range of its i3, but the model is struggling,
selling only around 25,000 vehicles last year.
BMW CEO Harald Krüger is skipping the Paris show and instead
will huddle with key executives to thrash out a new electric
vehicle strategy, according to people familiar with the
situation.
Some BMW executives want to broaden the offer of electric
vehicles and produce a battery-powered version of its Mini brand,
the people say. Others are wary of committing capital to new
electric vehicles without a coherent strategy and clearer signs
that the market is set to grow.
Write to William Boston at william.boston@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2016 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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