People relocated to metros $7,500 less expensive, a Zillow study of United
Van Lines data shows
- Charlotte, Providence and Indianapolis saw the highest net in-migration
among the 50 largest markets.
- Chicago, San Diego and Cincinnati witnessed the most outbound moves
compared to inbound relocations.
- Record-high housing costs in 2023 likely drove the continued
trend of moving toward affordability.
- Movers are also, increasingly, relocating to areas with more
home listings per resident.
SEATTLE, Jan. 9, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- Households that moved across state lines in 2023
relocated to markets where homes cost on average $7,500 less than where they came from, a new
Zillow® study of United Van
Lines® data shows. That's down a bit from $8,900 at the peak of the pandemic housing market
in 2021, but up from a savings of just $2,800 in 2019.
The five metro areas that saw the largest net migration gains
according to the United Van Lines data were relatively affordable
markets in the South, Midwest and Northeast. Although housing
affordability has always played a key role in explaining migration
patterns, the increase in house prices during the pandemic and the
subsequent jump in mortgage rates appears to have intensified the
search for more tolerable monthly payments.
"Affordability is one of the biggest considerations for home
buyers and sellers, and clearly plays a major role in deciding
where to put down roots," said Zillow Senior Economist Orphe
Divounguy. "Housing costs hit record highs last year, and made both
buying and selling difficult, even for homeowners sitting on
massive equity. Finding a less expensive area where dollars aren't
quite so stretched was a smart move for a lot of people."
Affordability may improve slightly in 2024, but it has declined
significantly over the past four years. The share of median
household income needed to pay rent has risen from less than 27% in
November 2019 to nearly 30% in
November 2023. The share of income
needed for a monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase
has risen even more dramatically, from about 23% to nearly 39% over
the same period. In many places, especially the West Coast, costs
are so high that a family making the median household income won't
even qualify for a mortgage.
United Van Lines customers have
higher average household incomes than movers overall, but migration
flows in the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey reveal
a similar pattern. In 2021, the average interstate mover moved to a
metro area where homes would save them about $10,000 when compared to where they came from;
that's in comparison to savings of a little less than $700 in 2019, before the pandemic.
Among the 50 largest metros by population, those with the
highest net in-migration from United Van Lines customers in 2023
were Charlotte, Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando and Raleigh.
Of those five metros, four ranked among Zillow's 10 hottest
markets of 2024. This index is driven by expected home value
growth, how fast home sellers are entering into contracts with
buyers, job growth per new home permitted and growth in
owner-occupied households.
Metros with the highest net number of residents relocating were
Chicago, San Diego, Cincinnati, Detroit and Boston.
United Van Lines customers are
also, increasingly, moving to markets with less potential
competition for homes. Movers relocated to destination metros with
an average of six fewer competitors per listing in 2019. That
difference grew to 13 in 2023.
Metros with more United Van Lines outbound moves than inbound
moves tended to experience less growth in their working-age
population in the same year, and lower growth in home values in the
year that immediately followed.
Year
|
Average
Origin
Metro*
Home
Value
|
Average
Destination
Metro Home
Value
|
Average Metro-
level Home
Value
Difference
|
Average
Origin
Population
Per Active
Listing
|
Average
Destination
Population
Per Active
Listing
|
Difference
in the
Population
to Active
Listing
Ratio
|
2018
|
$247,218
|
$245,273
|
-$1,944
|
203
|
209
|
-6
|
2019
|
$256,395
|
$253,600
|
-$2,795
|
205
|
210
|
-6
|
2021
|
$330,088
|
$321,261
|
-$8,827
|
333
|
342
|
-9
|
2022
|
$379,615
|
$371,254
|
-$7,361
|
319
|
328
|
-9
|
2023
|
$374,613
|
$367,181
|
-$7,432
|
377
|
390
|
-13
|
Source: United
Van Lines and Zillow data
|
* Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA)
|
|
About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc.
(NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a
reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate
website in the United States,
Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they
want by connecting them with digital solutions, great partners, and
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experiences.
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All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow
affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS
#10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2023 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a
Zillow affiliate.
About United Van Lines
United Van
Lines is America's #1 Mover®. United Van Lines offers a full range of moving
solutions. With headquarters in suburban St. Louis, United Van Lines maintains a
network of 300 affiliated agencies. For more information about
United Van Lines, visit: UnitedVanLines.com
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SOURCE Zillow