DRAM Pricing Remains a Concern - Analyst Blog
29 12월 2011 - 6:30PM
Zacks
While the world spins, technology
spins even faster. This makes the sector all important for every
business and industry. Considering its significance, we hardly see
a technologically backward company as thriving in this competitive
world.
But since the 2009 recession, the
sector has seen a setback, in particular due to the weak PC demand.
This has pushed not only the PC-makers such as Dell
Inc. (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)
but also the component manufacturers to a zone of long-term
uncertainty.
One of the prime components of PC
is Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) chip, which acts as the
primary memory of the central processing unit.
Suppliers of DRAM chips are facing
a bleak future, which according to research firm IHS iSuppli is due
to the rising debt crisis and poor PC sales as consumers migrate to
the more trendy smartphones and tablets. This has led to excess
inventory in the distribution channels leading to an oversupply
position, which has ultimately pushed prices down.
The major players in this industry
are Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Samsung
Electronics, Hynix Semiconductors, Elpida and Nanya Technologies.
The DRAM business appears endangered for all these companies.
Micron reported its first quarter
fiscal 2012 results last week, with a net loss of $187.0 million or
19 cents per share, compared to net income of $155.0 million or 15
cents in the year-ago quarter. Its DRAM segment was the weakest
performer partially offset by a stable performance by the NAND
flash segment.
DRAM revenue fell 8.9% sequentially
in the third quarter for Samsung due to a 17.0% decrease in the
average selling price (ASP). However, Samsung managed to grow its
market share by 3.0%. But the market share of Elpida, Nanya and
Hynix fell to some degree.
Now, this lingering concern could
give rise to industry consolidation. Last week, a Japanese business
daily (Nikkei) published the news of a possible merger between
local chip maker Elpida and its Taiwanese rival Nanya Tech.
However, Nanya's chairman completely denied the statement stating
that they are caught up in a legal patent issue.
We think that consolidations could
save the DRAM market from its present predicament. If the
Elpida-Nanya Tech merger materializes, their joint market share
will get a solid boost. But this could hamper Nanya’s relation with
Micron as they share a long-time partnership. In a way, the merger
may not prove beneficial for Micron, but for the overall
industry.
Market sources state that
manufacturers have already restricted their production capacity and
have put a check on their inventories. The initiatives are showing
good results on DRAM pricing.
Based on this news, we look forward
to better DRAM fundamentals in 2012.
Currently, Micron has a Zacks Rank
#3, implying a short-term Hold recommendation.
DELL INC (DELL): Free Stock Analysis Report
HEWLETT PACKARD (HPQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
MICRON TECH (MU): Free Stock Analysis Report
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