Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE:SGL) is a
non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a
high level of current income as a primary objective and capital
appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and
foreign debt securities.
Fund Commentary for the third quarter of 2013 from UBS Global
Asset Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS Global AM”), the Fund’s
investment advisor
Market Review
While the global fixed income market experienced periods of
elevated volatility during the third quarter, it ultimately
generated a positive return. In the US, Treasury yields generally
moved higher in July and August due to expectations that the
Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed") would decide to begin the
tapering of its $85 billion a month in asset purchases at its
meeting on September 18. After peaking in early September, Treasury
yields fell sharply as the Fed chose to not taper, saying that it:
"…decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained
before adjusting the pace of its purchases." Also driving yields
lower in late September were increasing signs that lawmakers in
Washington DC would not come up with a budget accord in time to
avert a partial government shutdown on October 1. Looking at the
third quarter as a whole, the US yield curve steepened, as
longer-term yields increased more than their shorter-term
counterparts. The overall US bond market, as measured by the
Barclays US Aggregate Index, returned 0.57% during the quarter.
Sector Overview
The spread sectors (non-US Treasury fixed income securities)
generated positive returns during the third quarter. Spread sector
returns fluctuated during the quarter due to expectations that the
Fed would begin adjusting its monetary policy, possible military
action in Syria and concerns regarding the US budget and upcoming
debt ceiling debate. Both investment grade and high yield corporate
debt generated positive absolute returns. Within corporate debt,
high-quality rated bonds generally underperformed lower-quality
bonds, as higher quality debt tends to be of longer duration which,
with the increase in Treasury yields, negatively impacted prices.
Finally, commercial mortgage backed securities and residential
agency mortgage backed securities posted solid results over the
quarter, with particularly strong gains in September following the
announcement of the delay in the Fed taper.
Overall, the emerging markets debt asset class remained volatile
during the third quarter, but posted better results in contrast to
the prior three month period. After recouping some of its May/June
losses in July, the asset class declined in August given
expectations for Fed tapering and rising US interest rates. The
market’s focus on concerns related to an interest rate rise and
weak investor demand dissipated with the announcement by the Fed
that it would delay the taper. In September, as US interest rates
declined and the demand for emerging markets debt stabilized, asset
prices found more support. As was the case during the previous
three months, US dollar-denominated emerging markets bonds
outperformed their local market counterparts during the third
quarter. US dollar-denominated emerging markets debt, as measured
by the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global),
posted a 0.87% return over the three months, whereas local currency
emerging markets debt, as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond
Index-Emerging Markets Global Diversified (GBI-EM Global
Diversified), posted a -0.43% return during the same time
period.
Performance Review
For the third quarter of 2013, the Fund posted a net asset value
total return of 1.02% and a market price total return of 0.32%. On
a net asset value basis, the Fund underperformed its benchmark, the
Strategic Global Benchmark (the “Index”)1, which returned 2.22% for
the quarter.
The Fund's strategic currency exposures were the largest
detractors from performance during the quarter. In particular, a
short to the euro was detrimental as it rallied sharply versus the
US dollar. A short to the Japanese yen was also negative for
performance, albeit to a lesser extent. Tactical foreign exchange
trading was also a drag on results. The Fund's yield curve
positioning also detracted from performance, largely in September;
the Fund's underweight to the five-to-seven year portion of the
curve hurt performance as that part of the curve rallied the most
following Fed’s decision to delay the tapering of quantitative
easing.
On the upside, the Fund's overweights and security selection of
high yield and investment grade corporate bonds were beneficial for
performance. Within the investment grade corporate bond sector, an
overweight to financials added the most value. Elsewhere, an
out-of-benchmark allocation to commercial mortgage-backed
securities and security selection within the sector contributed to
results. Finally, our agency mortgage-backed security exposure was
a modest positive for performance.
From an emerging markets debt perspective, the Fund had an
underweight exposure versus the Index during the third quarter. The
Fund's out-of-Index exposure to local-currency-denominated emerging
markets debt detracted from results. While many of the Fund’s local
currency positions rallied in September, and offset much of their
losses from the prior two months, that was not the case across all
markets. One notable exception was the Indian rupee, as the
currency sizably depreciated over the three-month period. Our
exposure to longer duration Brazilian local debt was also negative
for performance as their yields generally increased during the
quarter. Conversely, security selection of Argentinean US
dollar-denominated debt was rewarded. Toward the end of August and
early September, we increased our US dollar exposure in a number of
countries that had been hit hard during the sell-off earlier in the
summer. This was beneficial as their spreads2 subsequently narrowed
during the rally in September.
Outlook
We maintain our positive outlook for the US economy and believe
that growth will continue, albeit at a relatively modest pace. In
recent months, we have seen continued improvements in the housing
and labor markets. In addition, despite fears of Fed asset purchase
tapering this year, we believe that the government shutdown and
next round of budget and debt ceiling talks in early 2014 will push
the beginning of the taper back to perhaps March. In addition, we
believe that the Fed's taper will be more modest and take longer to
complete than previously anticipated. We are less positive for
growth outside the US. While Europe's economy appears to have
bottomed, we are concerned about the potential drivers of growth
going forward. We are also keeping a close eye on China, as its
economy has decelerated and this could have a negative impact on
Asia.
Turning back to the US fixed income market, we continue to have
a positive outlook for corporate bonds. In our view, the
fundamental and technical backdrops bode well for these securities.
Based on this and what we believe will be low defaults, we see the
potential for credit spreads to modestly tighten in the coming
months. We believe that risks to the US fixed income market include
ongoing fiscal policy uncertainties, questions regarding future Fed
monetary policy and a possible rotation out of fixed income due to
rates moving higher or the relative risk/reward valuation of fixed
income versus equities.
We have a neutral near-term outlook for the emerging markets
asset class. Current account deficits in some developing countries,
such as India, Turkey and Indonesia, have risen in recent months
and pressured their currencies, which could lead to slightly higher
inflation in those countries, as well as in South Africa and
Brazil, given their weaker currencies. From an economic
perspective, slower emerging market growth rates are generally not
supportive for local currencies in the near team. Finally,
uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of the Fed's
tapering could result in periods of heightened volatility. However,
we maintain our positive long-term outlook for the emerging markets
asset class. While their economic expansions have decelerated
somewhat, growth in developing countries should remain higher than
their developed country counterparts. In addition, emerging markets
debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal budgets are relatively more
attractive. We also believe that supply/demand technicals should be
supportive and lead to spread tightening over time.
Please note that the Fund’s quarterly portfolio statistics,
which in the past were disclosed as part of the Fund’s distribution
declaration releases, will now be reflected in the quarterly
commentaries, as seen below.
Portfolio statistics as of September 30, 20133
Top ten countries (bond holdings only)4
Percentage of net assets United States 43.9%
Netherlands 3.8 Brazil 3.8 United Kingdom 3.5
Russia 3.2 Cayman Islands 3.1 Germany 3.0
France 3.0 Italy 2.4 India 2.1 Total
71.8
Top ten currency exposures (includes
all securities and otherinstruments)
Percentage of net assets United States Dollar
67.8% Euro 15.3 Australian Dollar 3.2 Brazilian Real
2.3 British Pound 2.0 Mexican Peso 1.3
Japanese Yen 1.0 Swedish Krona 0.9 Russian Ruble
0.8 Ukrainian Hryvnia 0.6
Credit
quality5 Percentage of net assets AAA
3.4% US Treasury6 3.5 US Agency6,7 8.5 AA
4.8 A 12.0 BBB 19.4 BB 13.5 B
5.3 CCC and Below 0.9 Non-rated 25.8 Cash and other
assets, less liabilities 2.9 Total 100.0
Characteristics
Net asset value per share8 $10.47 Market price
per share8 $9.29 NAV distribution rate (DR)8 6.02%
Market distribution rate (DR)8 6.78% Duration9 5.10
yrs 1 The Strategic Global Benchmark is an unmanaged
index compiled by the advisor, constructed as follows: 67%
Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI) and 33% JP Morgan
Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). Investors should
note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses.
2 “Spreads” refers to differences between the yields paid on US
Treasury bonds and other types of debt, such as emerging markets
bonds. 3 The Fund’s portfolio is actively managed, and its
portfolio composition will vary over time. 4 Excludes exposures
obtained via derivatives (e.g., swaps). 5
Credit quality ratings shown are based on
those assigned by Standard & Poor’s, a division of the
McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“S&P”), to individual portfolio
holdings. S&P is an independent ratings agency. Rating
reflected represents S&P individual debt issue credit rating.
While S&P may provide a credit rating for a bond issuer (e.g.,
a specific company or country); certain issues, such as some
sovereign debt, may not be covered or rated and therefore are
reflected as non-rated for the purposes of this table. Credit
ratings from AAA, being the highest, to D, being the lowest based
on S&P’s measures; ratings of BBB or higher are considered to
be investment grade quality. Unrated securities do not necessarily
indicate low quality. Further information regarding S&P’s
rating methodology may be found on its website at
www.standardandpoors.com. Please note that references to credit
quality made in the commentary above reflect ratings based on
multiple providers (not just S&P) and thus may not align with
the data represented in this table.
6 S&P downgraded long-term US government debt on August 5, 2011
to AA+. Other rating agencies continue to rate long-term US
government debt in their highest ratings categories. The Fund’s
aggregate exposure to AA rated debt as of September 30, 2013 would
include the percentages indicated above for AA, US Treasury and US
Agency debt but has been broken out into three separate categories
to facilitate understanding. 7 Includes agency debentures and
agency mortgage-backed securities. 8 Net asset value (NAV), market
price and distribution rates will fluctuate. NAV distribution rate
(DR) is calculated by multiplying the current month’s regular
monthly distribution by 12 and dividing by the month-end net asset
value. Market distribution rate (DR) is calculated by multiplying
the current month’s regular monthly distribution by 12 and dividing
by the month-end market price. 9 Duration is a measure of price
sensitivity of a fixed income investment or portfolio (expressed as
% change in price) to a 1 percentage point (i.e., 100 basis points)
change in interest rates, accounting for optionality in bonds such
as prepayment risk and call/put features.
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund
Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how
the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were
current as of the date of this press release. They are not
guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be
taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety
of factors, and the Fund and UBS Global AM reserve the right to
change views about individual securities, sectors and markets at
any time. As a result, the views expressed should not be relied
upon as a forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.
Past performance does not predict future performance. The return
and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's
shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund
Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other
distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable
dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary
assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were
reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend
Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have
not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes
that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other
distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares.
Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as
interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in
the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in
emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's
investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse
political, social and economic developments abroad and due to
decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US
dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund,
including a discussion of principal objectives, principal
investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund
overview located at
http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo. You may also
request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds
Desk at 888-793 8637.
©UBS 2013. All rights reserved.
The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered
trademarks of UBS.
UBS Global Asset ManagementClosed-End Funds Desk: 888-793
8637ubs.com
Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (NYSE:SGL)
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