WALNUT CREEK, Calif.,
Aug. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The
PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI) announced today that PMI's third
quarter U.S. Market Risk Index (using 1st quarter 2010 data)
dropped to 51.9 from 53.8, the third consecutive quarterly
decrease. However, the number of Metropolitan Statistical
Areas (MSAs) with lower risk scores declined compared with the
previous quarter, reflecting a decrease in affordability and higher
mortgage rates during the 1st quarter of 2010 compared with the end
of 2009.
Although 290 (75.5 percent) of the nation's MSAs are less risky
than the previous quarter, more than half (51.6 percent) are still
in the high-risk category. Generally, the high-risk MSAs had higher
unemployment rates, higher new foreclosure rates, lower
affordability, a larger excess housing supply and more volatile
housing prices compared with the MSAs in the minimal to moderate
risk categories.
The Nation's Top 50 MSAs
- 28 had a risk score exceeding 70, placing them in the highest
risk category.
- Seven had risk scores between 50 and 70, giving them an
elevated risk designation.
- Six had moderate risk scores between 30 and 50.
- Eight were deemed low risk with scores between 10 and 30.
- One, Columbus Ohio, had a
minimal risk score of below 10.
PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index(SM) uses economic, housing, and
mortgage market factors, such as home price appreciation,
employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates,
and foreclosure activity in assessing the risk of price declines in
that nation's MSAs. Risk scores translate directly into a
probability (ranging from zero to 100) that the price of homes in a
given MSA will on average be lower at the end of the next two
years.
In Florida and Nevada, Risk Index scores remained in the 90s
-- the high 90s in many MSAs. New Jersey and Arizona also had very high-risk scores in the
first quarter. In California, 25 of its 28 MSAs had lower
risk scores in the 1st quarter of 2010, compared with the 4th
quarter of 2009.
"Household formation is the most important demographic driver of
housing demand and faster growth, as has occurred over the period
since the middle of 2009 corresponding to a pickup in the economy,
should lead to greater market stability," said David Berson, PMI chief economist and
strategist. "Ultimately greater stability of house prices
will lead to declines in the Risk Index."
Third Quarter 2010 PMI U.S.
Market Risk Index
(Based on First Quarter 2010
Data)
10 Most and Least Improved Risk
Indexes of Top 50 MSAs
|
|
10 Most Improved of Top 50
MSAs
|
|
10 Least Improved of Top 50
MSAs
|
|
Risk
Rank
|
MSA
|
1st
Qtr
2010
Risk
Score
|
4th
Qtr
2009
Risk
Score
|
%
Change
from
prior Qtr
|
|
Risk
Rank
|
MSA
|
1st
Qtr
2010
Risk
Score
|
4th
Qtr
2009
Risk
Score
|
%
Change
from
prior Qtr
|
|
Min
|
Columbus, OH
|
9.5
|
14.6
|
-34.7%
|
|
Mod
|
Cincinnati-Middletown,
OH-KY-IN
|
49.6
|
49.0
|
1.1%
|
|
Low
|
St. Louis, MO-IL
|
26.2
|
34.8
|
-24.5%
|
|
Elev
|
Indianapolis-Carmel,
IN
|
50.1
|
49.9
|
0.4%
|
|
Mod
|
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,
CO
|
37.2
|
47.5
|
-21.6%
|
|
High
|
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall,
FL
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Low
|
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill,
NC-SC
|
26.1
|
33.3
|
-21.4%
|
|
High
|
Las Vegas-Paradise,
NV
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Low
|
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor,
OH
|
14.1
|
17.8
|
-20.7%
|
|
High
|
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano
Bch-Deerfield Bch, FL
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Low
|
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
|
17.5
|
22.1
|
-20.5%
|
|
High
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,
FL
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Mod
|
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin,
TN
|
39.6
|
48.1
|
-17.6%
|
|
High
|
Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, CA
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Low
|
San Antonio-New Braunfels,
TX
|
12.0
|
13.9
|
-13.1%
|
|
High
|
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,
FL
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Low
|
Fort Worth-Arlington,
TX
|
27.7
|
31.8
|
-13.0%
|
|
High
|
Jacksonville, FL
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
Elev
|
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett,
WA
|
51.9
|
59.1
|
-12.2%
|
|
High
|
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale,
CA
|
99.9
|
99.9
|
0.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
About The PMI Group, Inc.
The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI), headquartered in Walnut Creek, CA, provides credit enhancement
solutions that expand homeownership while supporting our customers
and the communities they serve. Through its wholly and partially
owned subsidiaries, PMI offers residential mortgage insurance and
credit enhancement products.
SOURCE The PMI Group, Inc.
Copyright g. 9 PR Newswire