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17 시간 전
An Enticing Gold Mining Stock with a Strong SCTR Score
By: StockCharts | January 31, 2025
• Gold stocks have been rising, which has helped gold mining stocks.
• This gold mining stock is close to its all-time high.
• In this article, we will present an analysis of the monthly and daily charts.
Gold stocks have risen, even after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. So it wasn't surprising to find a few gold mining stocks filtered in my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan. (This scan was created using StockCharts' Advanced Scan Workbench and can be found at the end of the article for reference.)
I selected Alamos Gold, Inc. (AGI), a gold mining stock in the materials sector for further analysis. Gold mining stocks have been rising, as have gold prices, and, with AGI trading at around $21, the stock is worth considering as an addition to a portfolio.
A Deep Dive Into Alamos Gold
AGI has had an interesting run since late 2022, after it broke out of a shallow downward-sloping sideways range. The stock rode higher, moved sideways for almost a year, and then continued its upward trend. It pulled back again from late October 2024 to January 2025; it is now trading above its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and challenging its all-time highs.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD MINING STOCK ALAMOS. The stock has been trending higher since early 2024 and is now battling with its all-time highs.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
When a stock reaches its all-time high, that could be an incentive to go even higher. But there needs to be momentum. There are a handful of momentum indicators you could use, such as the relative strength index (RSI), moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), and average directional index (ADX).
Let's look at the daily chart of AGI to identify potential entry points.
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF ALAMOS GOLD. The SCTR score is 82.50, the price is very close to its 52-week high (in this case, an all-time high), and RSI is almost 70. The stock is also trading well above its 15-day EMA.
Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.
The Distance to 52-Week Highs indicator in the lower panel shows AGI is close to its 52-week high. The SCTR score is above 80, volume is picking up, the stock is trading above its 15-day EMA, and the RSI has been trending higher, just shy of 70. All indicators point to AGI retaining its bullish move.
AGI failed to close at a new all-time high on Thursday. It's worth monitoring the stock's momentum to see if it can close at a new high and push through it. If not, consider catching it on a pullback and trying to ride the wave up. It could be a golden opportunity.
However, as we know too well, things can change. If the dynamics of AGI start shifting -- i.e. the SCTR score falls, the stock price moves closer to its 15-day EMA, or the RSI reverses and approaches the 50 line -- then it may be time to exit the stock.
As always, if any of the indicators start reversing, which would suggest that the stock's strength is declining, you may be better off moving on to find more promising investments.
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3 일 전
Agnico Eagle (AEM) Increases Production, Share Value
By: Lucas Downey | January 29, 2025
• Shares of Canadian mining company Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) shine.
Based in Toronto, AEM’s business is the exploration, development, and production of precious metals. It has mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, with exploration and development activities focused on Canada, Australia, Europe, Latin America, and the U.S. Gold is a focus for the company, and its facilities are in some of the best gold producing areas in the world. AEM also increased its production capacity through a recent acquisition, allowing it to expand a large mining project in Canada.
For the third quarter of fiscal 2024, AEM increased its revenue to $2.2 billion, a jump of 31% from a year earlier. It delivered record per-share earnings of $1.14, while also having a record $620 million on hand, a nearly sevenfold increase from the prior year. Gold production was 863,000 ounces. Lastly, the company greatly decreased its debt, from $1.5 billion at the start of the year to $490 million.
It’s no wonder AEM shares are up more than 82% in a year – and they could rise more. MAPsignals data shows how Big Money investors are betting heavily on the forward picture of the stock.
Big Money Digs Agnico Eagle Shares
Institutional volumes reveal plenty. Recently, AEM has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.
Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in AEM shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Plenty of materials names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Agnico Eagle.
Agnico Eagle Fundamental Analysis
Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, AEM has had strong sales and earnings growth:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+29.1%)
• 3-year earnings growth rate (+44.4%)
Source: FactSet
Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +26.3%.
Now it makes sense why the stock has been powering to new heights. AEM has a track record of strong financial performance.
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.
Agnico Eagle has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report multiple times in the last year. The blue bars below show when AEM was a top pick…generating gains along the way:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.
This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.
Agnico Eagle Price Prediction
The AEM rally isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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6 일 전
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 25, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27789 and is trading up about 5.22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27948 while it is still trading above last month's high of 27613.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27620.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 20th at 27948, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27948 to 27156. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 25415 made 10 weeks . The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 20th reaching 27948 has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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6 일 전
Gold Miners’ Best Quarter Ever
By: Adam Hamilton | January 24, 2025
The gold miners will soon report their best quarter ever, smashing all records! Profits will skyrocket on the highest gold prices ever witnessed combined with stable or lower mining costs. Yet gold stocks are still trading as if both their earnings and gold were way lower, an extreme valuation anomaly. Upcoming stellar Q4 and 2024 results should help reverse that, growing investors’ interest in this high-flying sector.
Quarterly earnings seasons are an essential fundamental reality check on stock prices. These results dispel the sentimental fogs usually enshrouding stocks, revealing how companies are actually faring. As most operate on calendar years, Q4 results are included in way-more-comprehensive annual reports. While the extra data and analyses are welcome, those take longer to prepare stretching out reporting deadlines.
After normal quarters not ending reporting years, US-listed and Canadian-listed stocks are required to file full results within 40 and 45 calendar days. But those are extended to 60 and a whopping 90 following quarters ending reporting years! So most gold miners’ Q4 operational and financial results are released slower and later than earlier quarters’. That’s unfortunate, affecting the timeliness and utility of this data.
For the past 34 quarters in a row, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from the 25 largest component stocks in the leading benchmark GDX gold-stock ETF. These are detailed in quarterly essays right after earnings seasons. Those are published in the second halves of the second months after quarter-ends for Q1s, Q2s, and Q3s, but the middle of the third months for Q4s ending years.
Mostly thanks to Q4’24’s stupendous record gold prices, the gold miners’ latest results are going to prove epic. But sadly we have to wait until mid-March or so to collate and study them all. Yet after spending the better part of a decade analyzing every quarterly earnings season, how gold miners are actually doing is predictable. While much data feeds my massive GDX-top-25-results spreadsheet, it can be distilled down.
The best proxy I’ve found for how gold miners are faring is their implied sector unit profits. That construct simply takes the quarterly-average gold prices then subtracts the GDX top 25’s quarterly-average all-in sustaining costs. That results in quarterly-average earnings per ounce, which is much cleaner over time than either bottom-line profits or earnings per share. Those are often distorted due to accounting rules.
If companies believe any carrying values of assets on their books are overstated, they are required to immediately write those down and flush the resulting non-cash losses through their income statements. With 25 gold miners, nearly every quarter sees a handful record such impairment charges on deposits or mines. Their values are typically diminished by either lower gold prices or operational or geopolitical challenges.
Because of all these unusual non-recurring items distorting some varying subset of gold miners’ income statements, actual earnings and earnings per share aren’t comparable without plenty of adjustments. I do and discuss those in my quarterly-results essays. But by excluding such items which can also be big non-cash gains, implied sector unit profits are superior for comparisons. And Q4’s are going to prove epic!
Gold averaged $2,661 on close in Q4’24, soaring 34.7% year-over-year! The former is the highest gold has ever achieved, while the latter is the biggest gain in the last 34 quarters I’ve been advancing this research thread. In the previous five quarters ending Q3, gold averaged $1,926, $1,976, $2,072, $2,337, and $2,477 which surged 11.6%, 14.2%, 9.5%, 18.2%, and 28.6% YoY. Last quarter utterly trounced all that!
While Q4’s average gold price is set in stone, estimating the GDX-top-25 gold miners’ all-in sustaining costs is more involved. During those same previous five quarters, those averaged $1,325, $1,317, $1,277, $1,239, and $1,431 per ounce. Averaging those in turn results in $1,317. In their latest-reported results for Q3’24, the majority of the GDX-top-25 gold miners forecast Q4 would see their lowest AISCs of 2024.
That was mainly due to higher production with newer gold mines and expansions ramping up. AISCs are highly inversely correlated with outputs, due to the big fixed costs of gold mining. Mills processing gold-bearing ores cost about the same to operate every quarter. So more overall throughput or higher-grade ores yield more ounces to spread those expenses across, lowering unit costs. That should happen in Q4.
The first three quarters of 2024 saw GDX-top-25 AISCs averaging $1,315 per ounce. So given these major gold miners’ own Q4 guidances, it would be reasonable to expect those to drift closer to $1,300. But whenever I do estimates, I always try to be conservative with less-favorable assumptions. So for our purposes today, let’s assume these elite gold miners average considerably-worse $1,350 AISCs in Q4.
Last quarter’s record $2,661 average gold prices less $1,350 projected AISCs yields phenomenal record sector profits of $1,311 per ounce! That would make for enormous 98.8%-YoY growth from Q4’23 levels. You read that right, the major gold miners’ earnings almost certainly doubled last quarter! Yet GDX’s average share price across these same quarters merely rose 31.1%, lagging far behind soaring profits.
And massive earnings growth is nothing new for the gold miners. The previous five quarters ending in Q3 saw GDX-top-25 implied sector unit profits running $601, $659, $795, $1,099, and $1,046 per ounce. That $1,099 in Q2’24 was the previous record. These same five quarters achieved amazing year-over-year growth of 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0%! Q4’24 will be the sixth consecutive quarter of this.
Average all these, and the major gold miners have been achieving crazy 70%-YoY profits growth for the last year-and-a-half! No other sector in all the stock markets is remotely close. Q2’23 was gold stocks’ last normal quarter before this extraordinary run. Assuming my Q4’24 assumptions are in the ballpark, GDX-top-25 implied sector unit profits have soared 119% in that span! Stock prices should’ve followed.
Yet the quarterly-average GDX levels between those two quarters merely climbed 17.7%, just 1/7th of what earnings growth supported! This extreme valuation anomaly can’t and won’t last. Eventually all stock prices mean revert to some reasonable multiple of underlying corporate earnings. Odds are no other stock-market sector is more undervalued than gold stocks today, which makes them screaming buys.
The upcoming stellar Q4 gold miners’ results should help galvanize a bullish sentiment shift among all-important institutional investors. Unlike the retail guys who mostly chase momentum, the fund guys have to do their research and understand underlying fundamentals. When gold miners’ best quarter ever prods the professionals to dig deeper, the case for allocating capital into gold stocks will prove super-compelling.
With the gold miners so incongruously out of favor today, it won’t take much institutional buying to catapult them way higher. The resulting upside momentum will fuel mounting bullishness, attracting in more funds and retail investors. Interestingly GDX isn’t far from a major secular technical breakout, which should really accelerate that overdue sentiment shift. This chart illuminates GDX over the past several years or so.
Despite mostly still being ignored, the major gold stocks just carved a solid upleg. From early October 2023 to late October 2024, GDX powered 70.2% higher in 12.6 months! Yet while those would’ve been great gains for most sectors, they weren’t for high-flying gold stocks. The major gold miners of GDX usually amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. In nearly that same span, gold skyrocketed up 53.1%!
So by gold stocks’ own modern standards, GDX should’ve soared 106% to 159% leveraging gold’s huge upleg. Just 70% made for very-poor 1.3x upside leverage to their metal. That’s way too low to justify gold miners’ big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks heaped on top of gold price trends. Somewhere under 2x investors are better off reallocating any capital in the miners into gold itself.
Interestingly this past year’s gold upleg was the first achieving 40%+ monster status since mid-2020. Emerging from the pandemic-lockdown stock panic, gold soared 40.0% in 4.6 months back then. This same GDX comprised of mostly the same major gold miners at similar weightings rocketed up 134.1% in that span! That amplified gold a great 3.4x, better than normal. There’s no reason that can’t happen again...
* * *
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7 일 전
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 25, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 300.8k, up 21.4k.
Gold bugs are hammering on $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). This Friday, the metal rallied as high as $2,795, subsequently closing at $2,779/ounce, up 1.7 percent for the week. This was the fourth up week in a row.
When gold reached its peak last October, it came in a gravestone doji week. This was then followed by two weeks of downward pressure during which the metal dropped to $2,542 by November 14. This time around, gold is hanging on to its gains – most of it anyway. This bodes well for a breakout in due course.
For now, if the bulls lose $2,750s, there is trendline support from last November’s low at $2,650. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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1 주 전
Investors are Pouring Into Gold Miners
By: Karl Montevirgen | January 24, 2025
• There's a renewed interest in gold mining stocks.
• Does gold outperforming miners signal an increase in mining activity and profitability?
• Miners are at a critical turning point, and the key levels discussed can help you assess whether the trend will turn bullish or bearish.
Gold mining stocks have been climbing since the end of December, a trend that usually goes unnoticed unless gold — often dismissed as an "old relic" — undergoes one of its periodic shifts into a timely and relevant asset.
Recently, gold has been in the public spotlight, shedding its "relic" skin to reveal itself, once again, as a safe haven asset. If you haven't been following the yellow metal, here's what you might have missed:
• Gold prices have been rising, making mining a profitable venture.
• Central banks worldwide have ramped up gold purchases, driving prices higher.
• Several mining mergers have taken place, improving efficiency.
• Safe-haven demand, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, has fueled gold investment.
• Gold mining can also mean silver extraction (along with other metals), which is in short supply.
A glance at the5-day MarketCarpets' Bullish Percent Index (BPI) view on Thursday shows that next to healthcare, gold miners have the second largest lead over other indices and sectors.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPERTS BPI CHART. Gold miners have the second-highest BPI reading among other sectors and indices.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
This 5-day BPI reading tells you that over 41% of gold mining stocks exhibit Point & Figure buy signals. This suggests a surge in buying activity relative to the other sectors on the list.
As StockCharts' PerfCharts below show, rising gold and silver prices have been fueling gold mining activity and investment (note that this isn't always the case, as various operational factors can impact mining companies independently of the metal prices they produce). We'll use the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as our industry proxy.
FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF GDX,GLD, AND SLV. The metals are leading miners and driving mining activity and investment.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Taking a look at GDX's weekly chart, you can see the relative performance between gold mining stocks and the yellow metal.
FIGURE 3. WEEKLY 5-YEAR CHART OF GOLD MINERS. Note how gold prices are now leading the collective performance of the gold mining industry.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
For years, gold mining stocks led the price of gold (represented by the blue line), but, over the past year, gold has begun outperforming miners. This suggests a few possibilities:
• Investors might have been concerned about rising operational costs and weaker profit margins in the mining sector, favoring gold over the companies that produce it.
• Now, the renewed interest in mining stocks suggests that investors might be anticipating improved profitability in miners as gold prices continue to rise.
But is investing in miners a wise move or a trap? As the daily chart below shows, it can be either. It all depends on how the index reacts at critical technical levels.
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF GDX. Keep a close eye on resistance at $38 and support at $33.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
GDX has pulled back from its high of $43.71. Is this a pullback or the beginning of a more significant trend reversal Whether the rally continues or reverses into a downtrend depends on whether the price breaks above resistance at $38 or falls below support at $33.
This notion rests on the simple principle that an uptrend consists of consecutive higher highs and lows and that a downtrend consists of consecutive lower lows and highs. The ZigZag line effectively highlights this trend movement, especially the current swing high ($38) and low ($30).
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2 주 전
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.
Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 주 전
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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2 주 전
Options Traders React to Barrick Gold's Mali Setback
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 15, 2025
• Barrick Gold suspended operation in Mali, after the government seized 3 metric tons of gold
• Options traders are targeting GOLD at 4 times the intraday average volume
Options traders are zeroing in on Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) stock, as the company faces turbulence following the suspension of operations in Mali. The decision comes after the Malian government seized approximately 3 metric tons of gold, valued at $245 million, from the company’s Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex. This action, tied to a dispute over revenue shares owed to the state, underscores escalating military pressure on foreign mining companies as Mali asserts greater control over its mineral resources.
Shares of Barrick Gold were last seen 0.3% higher at $15.75, but remain down 21.1% over the past three months. GOLD faces resistance at the $16 level and its 30-day moving average, though the $15 mark has recently provided support to limit further losses.
Unusual options activity is accompanying the news, with 56,000 calls and 50,000 puts exchanged so far today -- four times the average intraday volume. The most active contracts are the January 14.5 call and 14.5 put, while new positions are opening at the weekly 1/31 16-strike call and put.
While puts and calls are evenly matched today, bearish bets have dominated over the past 10 weeks. According to the security's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.57 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), this figure sits in the 99th percentile of its annual range. In other words, although calls outpace puts overall, traders have been picking up puts at an unusually high rate recently.
For investors looking to join in on the action, Barrick Gold stock has consistently rewarded premium buyers. This is reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 86, indicating the stock has tended to deliver larger-than-expected moves relative to the options market’s low volatility expectations.
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3 주 전
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 11, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27150 and is trading up about 2.80% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26810.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 5.325%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 주 전
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 4, 2025
Next Monday is Martin Luther King, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 26547 and is trading up about 0.51% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26546 and overhead resistance forming above at 26758. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 3.246%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26497. Additional support is to be found at 26053. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26361.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Stocks’ Revaluation Year
By: Adam Hamilton | January 3, 2025
The gold miners’ stocks are limping into 2025 seriously oversold, deeply undervalued, and really out of favor. While that doesn’t sound very bullish, this is a fantastic contrarian setup for a big revaluation year. This sector’s stock-price levels are far too low to reflect gold miners’ massive record earnings with these high prevailing gold prices. Gold-stock prices need to normalize with underlying profits, which is likely in 2025.
Sometimes price levels experience major paradigm shifts in condensed periods of time. Unfortunately we’re all experiencing this on the inflation front. General prices for pretty much everything are stabilizing at much-higher levels than they were before 2020’s pandemic-lockdown chaos. This is a revaluation, as prices almost certainly won’t return to 2019 levels. The Fed’s extreme pandemic easing is the main reason.
In just over a month into March 2020, the flagship S&P 500 stock index collapsed 33.9% in the pandemic-lockdown panic! Top Fed officials feared a depression, so they redlined their monetary printing presses. Over the next 25.5 months, the Fed ballooned its balance sheet a radically-unprecedented 115.6% or $4,807b! That’s effectively the monetary base underlying the US dollar supply, which more than doubled.
While the Fed has been gradually shrinking that since, as of the latest data last week its balance sheet is still 65.6% or $2,727b higher than February-2020 levels! With vastly-more money remaining to bid up the prices of goods and services, they surged proportionally and held. The same is true of gold. It averaged $1,394 in 2019 before central bankers around the world panicked, and has revalued much higher since then.
But that process sure hasn’t been linear. Gold did soar dramatically in 2020 as money flooded into the system, averaging $1,773 for a 27.2% surge. But in 2021 and 2022 gold barely moved, averaging just $1,798 and $1,801. 2023 was better with a 7.9% gain to $1,943, but gold still wasn’t reflecting the huge global inflation in fiat-currency supplies. After lagging for a few years, gold finally revalued again in 2024.
Last year gold averaged $2,391, 23.0% better than prior-year levels. And compared to 2019’s average, that was 71.5% higher in line with money-supply growth per the Fed’s balance sheet! Before 2024, gold had never closed above $2,077. So a year ago this week, sentiment was fairly-bearish. Then I wrote a contrarian essay predicting gold’s 2024 breakout upleg. Prevailing gold prices revalued to much-higher levels.
That drove a major paradigm shift in how traders perceive gold prices. A year ago even $2,500 seemed impossibly high, yet today that feels low. And gold’s fantastic 27.2% gains in 2024 accrued despite bearish headwinds. During that remarkable year, gold powered higher through bouts of extreme overboughtness, exceedingly-overextended spec gold-futures positioning, and American stock investors ignoring it!
With the metal that overwhelmingly drives their profits normalizing in new much-higher-price territory, gold-stock prices will inevitably follow. 2025 will likely prove a major-paradigm-shift revaluation year for the gold miners. Their stock prices are wildly too low for their massive record earnings, an anomaly that markets never allow to persist for long. Examples of gold stocks’ enormous disconnect with gold are legion.
As gold soared 27.2% last year, the leading GDX major-gold-stock ETF clocked in at merely 9.4% gains! That made for terrible 0.3x leverage to gold, compared to GDX’s historical range running between 2x to 3x. Because gold stocks heap big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks on top of gold prices, they have always way outperformed their underlying metal to compensate traders for those added risks.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold soared 53.1% higher in a monster upleg! I define those as 40%+ gains without any upleg-slaying 10%+ corrections. That was gold’s first monster-level one since mid-2020, when gold blasted up 40.0% out of that pandemic-lockdown stock panic. During that span, GDX skyrocketed 134.1% which made for outstanding 3.4x upside leverage! That’s more typical historically.
Yet at best during gold’s 2024 monster upleg, GDX only rallied 70.2%. That only amplified gold’s upside a pathetic 1.3x, seriously lagging behind precedent. During a 53% gold upleg, the major gold stocks of GDX should’ve soared 106% to 159%! From 2020 to 2024, annual average gold prices surged 34.9% as the profligate Fed ballooned the US-dollar supply. Yet average GDX prices in those years only edged up 0.4%.
Last year major gold stocks were trading at 2020 levels, when gold again averaged $1,773. Gold-stock prices should be much higher with $2,391 gold across 2024. A big gold-stock revaluation higher in 2025 is certainly supported by fundamentals. For many years now, after every quarterly earnings season I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results reported by GDX’s 25 largest stocks.
All that data can be distilled down into quarterly sector unit profits, which simply subtract the GDX top 25’s average mining costs from average gold prices. During 2020 the last time GDX averaged similar levels, the major gold miners averaged $758-per-ounce earnings. Yet in the first three quarters of 2024, that surged 29.3% to a record $980 per ounce. And Q4’s numbers being added in will push that average even higher.
This just-finished last quarter averaged dazzling record $2,661 gold prices, easily besting Q3’s previous record $2,477. In 2024’s first three quarters, the GDX-top-25 gold miners averaged all-in sustaining costs of $1,315 per ounce. Many of them have guided to lower AISCs in Q4 on better production. But even if we ignore that and conservatively assume $1,400, the major gold miners are looking at $1,261 Q4 unit profits!
That would trounce the GDX top 25’s previous $1,099 record, and boost full-year-2024 average quarterly unit profits to $1,050. That would be 39% above 2020’s levels when GDX last traded near 2024’s average! During their last five reported quarters, these GDX-top-25 sector unit profits have soared 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0% year-over-year! Q4’24 at $1,261 would achieve another 91.3%-YoY leap.
The major gold miners are earning money hand-over-fist achieving epic record profits at these awesome prevailing gold prices, yet traders are totally ignoring that. Such valuation anomalies can fester for some time in markets, but never indefinitely. All stock-market sectors and individual stocks eventually migrate to some reasonable multiple of their underlying corporate earnings. Gold stocks won’t prove any different.
Obviously a major-paradigm-shift gold-stock revaluation in 2025 will require big capital inflows, meaning traders will have to grow interested in this sector. If that didn’t happen in 2021, 2022, 2023, or very much in 2024, then why would it manifest in 2025? Because of gold’s own revaluation in 2024! A year ago gold had spent several long years failing to decisively break out above secular upper resistance around $2,050.
So the great majority of traders were apathetic, not expecting much from gold in 2024. Yet even with American stock investors totally ignoring gold to chase the AI-stock bubble, it still powered 27.2% higher last year achieving 41 nominal record closes! Other buyers saw gold’s potential and flooded in, including Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian jewelry consumers. Their capital inflows fueled gold’s revaluation.
Similarly in 2025, there’s likely to be peripheral traders who recognize gold stocks are deeply undervalued relative to much-higher gold prices. It probably won’t be individual investors who lead the charge into this sector, they are too emotional and like to chase momentum. Professional fund managers who are value investors are likely to be the gold-stock-buying vanguard. They will recognize gold miners’ record profits first.
The capital inflows from their early buying will drive GDX higher, growing awareness and interest in this high-potential sector. The longer and higher gold stocks rally, the more other traders will take notice and jump on that bandwagon accelerating those gains. As we saw in gold last year, this self-feeding-buying dynamic is very powerful. Traders will realize gold stocks shouldn’t be trading as if gold was down near $1,775.
While gold miners’ overdue revaluation higher will primarily be fundamentally-driven, GDX’s technicals are also really bullish heading into 2025. This chart covering the last several years shows gold stocks’ mounting secular uptrend. In recent weeks major gold stocks were smashed to seriously-oversold levels well under GDX’s 200-day-moving-average baseline, almost back down to their uptrend’s secular support.
While gold’s own monster upleg remains alive and well, the miners’ stocks have suffered a sharp 23.4% selloff in recent months. That has really tainted sentiment, leaving this sector deeply out of favor as 2025 dawns. The primary driver was gold’s own post-election pullback on the US dollar surging on Trump’s win portending slower Fed rate cuts. I analyzed all that a couple weeks ago in an essay on the Fed testing gold.
This latest gold-stock selling is way overdone relative to the metal itself. At worst gold merely retreated 8.0% into mid-November, well under a 10%+ correction. On New Year’s Eve, gold was only 5.8% under late October’s latest nominal-record close. So GDX plunging 23.1% in that span for huge 4.0x downside leverage is excessive. That argues a V-bounce bottoming into a sharp mean-reversion surge is imminent...
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 22, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 262k, down 13.5k.
Last week, gold added 0.6 percent but left a large upper wick; a lower high of $2,761 was formed versus a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30. The downward momentum continued this week, as the metal dropped 1.2 percent to $2,645/ounce. Gold bugs at the same time can take solace in the fact that buying interest showed up at the nearest support.
On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s. These levels can now provide support. In the last three sessions this week, bids were waiting around $2,600.
The metal can rally. If the 50-day at $2,684 is recaptured, trendline resistance from the October high lies at $2,750.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26451 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26461 and support forming below at 25858. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 26497. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26053. Additional support is to be found at 25415. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 14, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 275.6k, up 15.9k.
Gold rallied hard in the first three sessions, tagging $2,760 by Wednesday, but only to then unravel to finish the week up only 0.6 percent to $2,676/ounce. As a result, the weekly left a rather large upper wick. Seven weeks ago, when the metal reached a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30, a gravestone doji formed on the weekly. This week’s candle has a similar look to it.
More selling pressure likely lies ahead. On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Gold Futures closing today at 26758 is immediately trading down about 0.37% for the year from last year's settlement of 26858. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26679 and overhead resistance forming above at 26807. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 8.648%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25685. Additional support is to be found at 26503. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Stocks Big Bargains
By: Adam Hamilton | December 13, 2024
Gold stocks remain big bargains, still priced for bygone much-lower gold prices. Gold miners are earning enormous record profits, fueled by gold’s powerful bull market. Yet traders have been slow to recognize this, leaving gold stocks seriously undervalued relative to their underlying earnings. This striking anomaly won’t last, as eventually stock prices always mean revert to some reasonable multiple of corporate profits.
One year ago this week, gold was trading around $2,000. Those levels were considered very high then, as gold had just achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years of $2,071! Traders were generally still fairly bearish on gold then. But my essay written that week was quite bullish, arguing “While $2,450 is achievable, personally I’m more comfortable looking for a conservative 25% upleg taking gold near $2,275.”
That contrarian call came to pass in early April, and gold kept on blasting higher. In mid-September this gold upleg grew to monster status at 40%+ gains, before peaking in late October skyrocketing 53.1% in 12.9 months! Gold clocked in with an amazing 43 record closes in that span, the last being $2,786 six weeks ago. That left gold extremely-overbought and speculators’ gold-futures positioning extremely-overextended.
Thus gold was at high risk for a healthy selloff to rebalance sentiment and technicals, which soon came to pass. But it merely stretched to an 8.0% pullback at worst by mid-November, showing gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well. This year’s strong gold price action has been fueled by big global demand, from Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian jewelry buyers. Gold is shifting into a higher-price regime.
With 2024 almost over, gold has averaged $2,378 on close this year. That’s way higher than preceding years, with 2021, 2022, and 2023 averaging $1,798, $1,801, and $2,077. Gold-stock prices should reflect these higher prevailing gold prices which overwhelmingly drive their underlying earnings. Yet across these same four years starting in 2021, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF averaged $33.76, $29.88, $35.85, and $34.79.
From 2021 to 2024, average gold prices soared 32.2%. Yet average gold-stock prices per GDX only edged up 3.1%! This is a stunning anomaly, as historically major gold stocks dominating this ETF have usually amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x. That’s driven by gold-mining profits really leveraging higher gold prices. As mining costs only rise slowly, gold outpacing them fuels outsized earnings growth.
After every quarterly earnings season, I dive deeply into the latest results reported by GDX’s 25 largest component stocks. The latest published a month ago covers Q3’24, where gold averaged a dazzling record $2,477. Yet the GDX top 25’s average all-in sustaining costs ran far lower at $1,431 per ounce, implying sector unit profits of $1,046. Those skyrocketed 74.0% YoY, the fifth quarter in a row of huge growth!
Starting in Q3’23, GDX-top-25 implied unit profits soared 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0% YoY! During 2024’s first three quarters, those averaged $980 per ounce. That was a whopping 94.1% higher than 2022’s average, when prevailing gold prices were 24.3% lower! With earnings nearly doubling, it makes no fundamental sense at all for yearly-average GDX prices to only be running 16.4% better this year.
This unsustainable valuation anomaly is even more shocking when charted with another proxy. Since prevailing gold prices overwhelmingly drive gold-mining profits, looking at gold-stock price levels relative to gold reveal undervaluation and overvaluation. Dividing GDX’s daily closes by the mighty GLD gold ETF’s yields the GDX/GLD Ratio or GGR. It shows if gold stocks are relatively-cheap or relatively-expensive.
Here this GGR in blue along with key technicals are superimposed over the raw GDX in red. The major gold stocks certainly haven’t had a bad run, with GDX surging 70.2% at best during gold’s monster upleg. But that made for fairly-dismal 1.3x upside leverage to gold, far behind that historical 2x-to-3x range. Gold stocks have so greatly lagged their metal that relative to it they are still trading at secular-bottoming levels!
In late October GDX surged to a 4.2-year high, and was less than 1% under its best close in a whopping 11.8 years! That magnitude of secular breakout would’ve worked wonders to improve sentiment and attract traders to gold stocks. But that was torpedoed by the world’s largest gold miner’s Q3 results the next day, as analyzed in my latest quarterlies essay. Newmont missed big on AISCs, so its stock crashed 14.7%!
The only gold stock included in the S&P 500 suffering its worst daily drop in 27 years in the best of times for gold miners seriously tainted sentiment. Gold was still surging to more records, yet GDX rolled over dragged down by NEM. The GGR was decisively breaking out of its multi-year downtrend before that Newmont debacle! GDX’s selloff was soon exacerbated by gold’s own overdue pullback, slamming gold stocks.
GDX naturally bottomed with gold in mid-November, falling 19.5% to the metal’s 8.0% for normal 2.4x downside leverage. But the resulting GGR read of 0.150x was jaw-dropping! While gold stocks had been lower relative to gold earlier in its monster upleg, that was exceedingly-anomalous too. In late February after gold had started surging but gold stocks hadn’t really followed, the GGR slumped to an incredible 0.137x...
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 7, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 259.7k, up 9.4k.
Gold bugs were repelled at the 50-day ($2,681) for six successive sessions including the first four this week. They lost the average on November 11 and have since closed above it only once.
Earlier on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
On November 14, the metal ticked $2,542 intraday and reversed higher. The rally since has now stalled at the 50-day. This week, it lost 0.8 percent to $2,660/ounce. The longer it takes to reclaim the average, which is now flat to slightly falling, the higher the odds of continued downside pressure. There is support at $2,610s immediately ahead.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 7, 2024
At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 26596. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 26784 and support forming below at 26566. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 5.528%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25415. Resistance is to be found starting at 27369. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Signal Says Target This Gold Stock Right Now
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 4, 2024
• Gold mining stock Newmont could finish the year strong
• NEM historically outperforms in December in the last decade
Since running into $2,700 in October, gold prices have cooled off, consolidating below this mark, though still elevated compared to the last 12 months. Gold traders have joined the the safe-haven asset in pulling back, but if past is precedent, one industry heavyweight could be ready to rally.
Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is one of the top stocks on the SPX to own in December going back a decade. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the miner averages a 4.4% return in December, and has finished the month higher eight times in the last 10 years.
Last seen trading at $41.42, a move of similar magnitude would help NEM put some separation between its year-to-date breakeven level. The shares hit a more than two-year high of $58.72 on Oct. 22, but have since taken a 29% cut off that peak. The round-number $40 level has stepped up as support, while the 320-day moving average could be a pivot point going forward.
Options traders remain call skewed on NEM. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 12,737 calls have changed hands in the last 10 days, compared to just 2,926 puts. However, this ratio ranks in the middling percentile of its annual range, suggesting the rate of bullish bets may be tapering off.
Premium is affordable though, per the equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% that now ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. The stock has also tended to outperform these expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 30, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26810 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26701 and overhead resistance forming above at 27185. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 7.149%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26503. Resistance is to be found starting at 27221. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 22, 2024
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential just finished reporting a spectacular record quarter! All-time-high gold prices combined with relatively-contained costs catapulted unit earnings to another epic record. Those incredibly-rich profits leave mid-tiers even more undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices, portending massive catch-up rallying coming in this high-flying sector.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.1b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!
Its Q3 output is highlighted in blue in the table below. Juniors not only mine less than 75k ounces per quarter, but their gold output generates over half their quarterly revenues. That excludes streaming and royalty companies that purchase future gold output for big upfront payments used to finance mine-builds, and primary silver miners producing byproduct gold. But mid-tiers often make better investments than juniors.
These gold miners dominating GDXJ offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, excellent output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains. Mid-tiers are less risky than juniors, while amplifying gold uplegs more than majors. So we’ve long specialized in the fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors at Zeal, actively trading these smaller gold miners for a quarter-century now.
With gold blasting higher, this year’s pickings have been good. Our recent realized gains triggered by gold’s overdue and healthy pullback have run as high as +158%! We just started reloading our newsletter trading books this week, adding five fantastic mid-tiers and juniors with imminent big production growth from expansions and mine-builds. GDXJ itself has soared 79.5% higher at best over this past year, big gains!
Yet even they are small compared to historical precedent, really lagging gold. Its monster upleg since early October 2023 has rocketed up 53.1% at best! Before big gold uplegs give up their ghosts, the better mid-tiers and juniors often see their stock prices triple or quadruple. So the best gains in the cream-of-the-crop smaller gold miners are still ahead. Their latest quarterly fundamentals support way-higher stock prices.
For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDXJ’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly mid-tiers, they now account for 65.4% of this ETF’s total weighting. While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding smaller gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector. This research is essential.
This table summarizes the GDXJ top 25’s operational and financial highlights during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDXJ over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their recent GDXJ weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
Back in mid-October before gold miners started reporting Q3 results, I wrote an essay predicting they’d achieve an epic record quarter. That indeed proved correct, with smaller gold miners well-outperforming their larger major peers. Yet despite practically printing money at these lofty gold prices, the smaller gold miners still remain largely-unknown. That should change soon with the huge numbers they are putting up!
These fundamentally-superior smaller miners’ phenomenal Q3 performances trounced those of the major-dominated GDX top 25 I analyzed in depth in last week’s essay. The mid-tiers and juniors’ epic quarter is easier to understand compared to the majors’ still-mostly-great results. That contrast begins with gold miners’ Q3 production. The GDXJ top 25’s collective output sure looks weak, falling 9.0% YoY to 3,075k ounces.
That’s much worse than the GDX top 25’s only slumping 1.4% YoY to 8,491k in Q3. And both shrinkage rates fell way behind global gold mining output according to the World Gold Council. It publishes the best-available worldwide gold fundamental data, which showed total global production actually surged an impressive 5.8% YoY to 31,824k ounces in Q3’24! But GDXJ’s shrinking output is a composition thing.
As this table shows, there’s lots of shuffling among GDXJ’s top component stocks. This ETF’s managers periodically add or remove components for various reasons. A year ago in Q3’23, the heaviest-weighted stock in this mid-tier gold-stock ETF was super-major Kinross Gold. While one of the best larger gold miners with a higher weighting in GDX too, KGC was far too big to include in GDXJ. So it was finally booted.
If KGC’s colossal 585k ounces mined in Q3’23 is replaced with the 26th-largest GDXJ component then, the GDXJ top 25’s aggregate production actually surged 10.0% YoY in Q3’24! That is wildly better than the GDX top 25’s lagging 1.4%-YoY shrinkage. Unlike majors often struggling to overcome depletion, the mid-tiers and juniors are firing on all cylinders on the output front. And this is nothing new for smaller miners...
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27122 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. As of now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 yet it is trading below last month's close of 27493.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26882 and overhead resistance forming above at 27127. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.964%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 234.4k, down 2.1k.
Four weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Gold then dropped the next couple of weeks. Last Thursday, it ticked $2,542 intraday, and that generated buying interest.
Earlier, on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
Last Thursday’s defense of $2,540s-50s laid the foundation for this week’s 5.5-percent jump to $2,712/ounce. More gains are likely ahead, with immediate resistance at $2,740s, which was decisively breached on the 6th.
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Gold Miners’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 15, 2024
The major gold miners’ latest quarterly results proved epic! Thanks to record gold prices, they achieved record revenues, record bottom-line earnings, and record operating cash flows. Such amazing profits drove down gold-stock valuations to their most-undervalued levels in many years. These super-strong fundamentals combined with gold’s healthy and overdue pullback are creating excellent buying opportunities.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.2b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 19x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for over 53% of GDX.
Gold stocks have been correcting hard in recent weeks, exacerbated by gold plunging in the wake of the US elections. Traders view Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs as inflationary, slashing Fed-rate-cut odds. The prospects of higher yields going forward catapulted up the US Dollar Index a massive 2.9% in just six trading days! That shook lose colossal gold-futures selling, hammering gold 6.1% lower since Election Day.
Gold stocks per GDX plunged 11.3% in sympathy, actually making for fairly-mild 1.9x downside leverage to the metal which overwhelmingly drives their profits. Usually GDX tends to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. At worst since late October, gold’s total pullback is running 7.6%. That selloff was overdue and expected. Just a few weeks earlier, I wrote a whole essay analyzing why gold’s selloff risk was high.
At best gold had soared an incredible 35.0% year-to-date, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21.9% gains! That left gold extremely-overbought, and speculators’ gold-futures positioning exceedingly-overextended. So a sentiment-rebalancing selloff on these hyper-leveraged traders normalizing their bets was inevitable. We ratcheted up trailing-stop-loss percentages on our gold-stock trades to prepare, soon realizing big-to-huge gains.
While gold stocks have surged dramatically this year, they still really lagged gold with GDX up 42.2% YTD at best in late October. Gold stocks were starting to catch up with their metal, accelerating towards that 2x-to-3x upside leverage. But GDX’s correction ignited before gold’s, after the world’s largest gold miner reported disappointing and misleading Q3 results. There’s much more below on Newmont’s latest debacle.
Gold stocks’ total correction extended to 19.3% as of mid-week, which is perfectly-normal 2.6x downside leverage to gold. Speculators and investors rushing to buy gold stocks in mid-October as GDX made a dazzling secular breakout and challenged a far-bigger one ought to be licking their chops! Being able to now buy in about 20% cheaper with gold miners printing money in this gold environment is awesome.
For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 85.0% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.
This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
In mid-October well before this latest earnings season got underway, I predicted gold miners’ epic quarter in an essay. That concluded “dazzling record gold prices combined with forecast lower mining costs will catapult unit earnings to astounding levels. They are likely to about double to amazing records, extending gold stocks’ massive-earnings-growth streak to five consecutive quarters.” Indeed that mostly came to pass.
Despite their epic quarter, as long-time readers know I’ve never been a fan of most of the world’s largest gold miners that dominate GDX. They perpetually fail to organically grow their production at their vast operational scales, unable to overcome depletion. They’ve mostly been able to boost output only through expensive acquisitions. And paradoxically their mining costs have been rising faster than their smaller peers’.
So for a quarter-century now, our very-profitable subscription-newsletter gold-stock trading has focused on fundamentally-superior smaller mid-tiers and juniors. Operating fewer gold mines often at lower costs, they are better able to consistently grow production through expansions and new mine-builds. Both their earnings growth and stock-price appreciation have long proven way better than GDX’s super-majors and majors...
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.
The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.
A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.
Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.
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Gold Mining ETF (GDX) Sees Huge Volume Surge
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 13, 2024
• Options volume for GDX surpassed 90,000 in the top two contracts
• GDX sports a solid year-to-date lead despite a 10% pullback this quarter
Market volatility stemming from the presidential election, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, as well as dollar and Treasury yield fluctuations have sent gold prices on a wild ride this year. While the yellow metal was last seen lower amid a surge in the dollar index, it wasn't long ago it was stringing record highs, as traders sought a safe haven from instability.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was last seen 1.3% lower to trade at $35.63, but still sports a 15.1% year-to-date lead after hitting an Oct. 22, four-year high of $44.29. Though the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is on track for its fourth-straight loss, it has maintained its popularity with options traders.
At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GDX's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 5.55 sits higher than 82% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating calls are getting picked up at a faster-than-usual rate.
Just yesterday, volume at the January, 2025 42- and 47-strike calls -- the top two options contracts -- totaled 91,033. Positions were being opened at the March 21, 2025 38 call, which points to long-term optimism. It's also worth noting that after GDX's 10% quarterly drawdown, the ETF now sports a 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 16.1, deep in "oversold" territory and indicating a short-term bounce could be imminent.
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