Whalatane
3 일 전
Well disappointing they weren't added in the S&P rebalancing .
Thoughts from Grok
, short-seller reports from firms like Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research, which emerged in early 2025 (though after the December decision), alleged fraudulent practices in AppLovin’s ad-tech business, particularly its AXON software. While these reports likely did not directly influence the December 2024 rebalancing, they reflect pre-existing skepticism about AppLovin’s business model that may have been shared by the committee. Fuzzy Panda later urged the committee in a March 4, 2025, letter to exclude AppLovin from the next rebalancing (expected March 2025), citing these concerns.
If similar doubts were present earlier, they could have impacted the committee’s view of AppLovin’s long-term stability, a key consideration beyond raw financial metrics.
Another possibility is that the committee saw AppLovin’s valuation as overstretched—trading at 104 times earnings in late 2024—potentially signaling risk despite its growth. In contrast, Workday, added in December, had a lower market cap but a more established track record in cloud software, possibly aligning better with the index’s “gold standard” as described by critics like Fuzzy Panda.
Ultimately, the S&P 500 rebalancing decisions are discretionary and opaque, balancing objective criteria with subjective judgment. AppLovin’s exclusion likely stemmed from a combination of these factors—sector representation, perceived risk, or timing—rather than a single definitive reason.
So they may need to deploy that funded share buyback program next week . Q1 earning report at least 6 wks away .
Their advertising rev exploded in Q4 ...but recent signs of consumer pull back may pressure that this Qt.
I'm not trading it unless theres a crash to near $200..... where I may buy some more .
I'll wait for Q1 earnings before I sell any
JMO
Kiwi
Whalatane
1 주 전
https://www.investing.com/news/sec-filings/applovin-boosts-share-buyback-program-by-500-million-93CH-3900927
The company’s Board of Directors has authorized an immediate availability of $500 million for the repurchase of its Class A common stock,...after Fridays close
More detail
On February 28, 2025, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized the modification of the share repurchase program as follows:
(i) $500 million shall be immediately available for repurchase of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock (the “Current Limit”), notwithstanding the amount that otherwise would have remained available during the quarter under the prior Free Cash Flow limitation, and
(ii) the Current Limit shall be increased in future quarters by the amount of Free Cash Flow generated in the preceding fiscal quarter, with the Current Limit and any increases to be carried forward and remain available for future repurchases if not used and the aggregate amount that may be repurchased not to exceed the Existing Repurchase Maximum Amount.
The modifications do not change the Existing Repurchase Maximum Amount.
Kiwi
Whalatane
2 주 전
From X. AppLovin Corp has found itself at the center of Wall Street’s latest battleground after short sellers Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research released reports questioning the company’s business practices. The fallout was swift, with shares plunging 12% on Wednesday and continuing to slide into Thursday. However, major analysts are calling this a golden buying opportunity, arguing that the short reports lack substance and that AppLovin remains a dominant force in digital advertising.
Wall Street Rallies Behind AppLovin
Despite the stock’s decline, prominent Wall Street analysts remain unfazed. Many are doubling down on their bullish stance, emphasizing that the selloff is exaggerated. AppLovin still boasts 20 buy ratings, seven holds, and zero sell ratings, according to Bloomberg data. Piper Sandler analysts, led by James Callahan, reiterated their confidence, maintaining an overweight rating with a $575 price target.
The analysts argue that AppLovin’s clientele consists of some of the most sophisticated digital advertisers in the industry. If there were fraudulent activity, clients would have detected it through their own attribution and incrementality testing. The market overreaction, they believe, presents an opportunity for investors to buy in at a significant discount.
Jefferies analysts echoed this sentiment, dismissing the claims in the short reports as weak and, in many instances, inaccurate. They maintained their buy rating and set an even more aggressive price target of $600. Their argument is straightforward—AppLovin’s success comes from its ability to generate measurable revenue for its clients. If the company were engaging in fraudulent click and download schemes, it would have already faced legal repercussions.
Bank of America Stays Firm on Its Top Pick
Bank of America analysts, led by Omar Dessouky, reaffirmed their bullish stance on AppLovin, calling it their top pick. They pointed to several near-term catalysts that could drive the stock higher, including an eCommerce ramp-up and a valuation that now looks extremely attractive following the selloff.
Dessouky argued that any skepticism surrounding AppLovin is more about the complexity of mobile adtech rather than fundamental issues with the company. Over time, he expects this complexity-driven discount to disappear as investors become more familiar with the mechanics of digital advertising auctions. Maintaining a buy rating, Bank of America set a $580 price target, emphasizing that the current price drop presents a compelling entry point for long-term investors.
The Role of Buybacks and Upcoming Financial Reports
AppLovin’s aggressive share repurchase program further solidifies the bulls’ case. In 2024 alone, the company bought back $1 billion worth of its own shares, a move that analysts at Citi Research view as a strong signal of internal confidence.
Citi analysts are also keeping a close eye on AppLovin’s upcoming 10-K filing. If the company’s financial disclosures remain unchanged from previous years, it would suggest that the short sellers’ accusations hold little weight. The timing of the short reports, just as AppLovin was coming off a record-breaking 700% gain in 2024, raises questions about the motives behind them.
Fundamentals vs. Fear: What’s Next for AppLovin?
William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart sees the situation as a classic case of fundamentals versus fear. If AppLovin’s business model were fraudulent, as alleged, it would have likely faced legal action from advertisers or regulators long before now. Instead, the company has consistently reported strong earnings and revenue growth.
Schackart believes that while the debate over AppLovin will rage on in the short term, the company’s long-term fundamentals will ultimately dictate its trajectory. The real test will come with its next earnings report. If AppLovin continues to beat expectations, as it has done in the past, it could trigger a sharp rebound in share price.
Final Thoughts
The selloff in AppLovin stock may have rattled investors, but Wall Street’s confidence remains unwavering. With top analysts reaffirming their buy ratings and pointing to strong fundamentals, the dip appears to be a temporary blip rather than a red flag. The combination of upcoming financial disclosures, continued revenue growth, and strategic buybacks suggests that AppLovin is still in a strong position. For investors with a long-term horizon, this may well be the buying opportunity they’ve been waiting for.
Kiwi
rosemountbomber
2 주 전
Yep, price bounced back very, very quickly when it dipped under 300. Saw an article written on Feb 18 saying the stock was overvalued. But on Feb 18 stock was $500. In the low 300's it is a different story. Great blowout earnings a couple of weeks ago.
As far as the cracks (thanks for your offer by the way but getting done under warranty) it is in corners and joints at opposite ends of where the ceiling transitions from 9 ft to 12 ft. I think there is a very long beam that runs from one side to the other that is probably 23' long. Guess there is a big load there. We have over the past year heard loud bangs that we could never identify but I guess it is the house settling and the joints cracking at those critical spots. House is built on a crawl space. When a kid, lived in house with basement, then 45 years in Fl in homes built on monolithic slabs, and now crawl space so the whole gamut.
Whalatane
2 주 전
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FundamentalBottom
@FundaBottom
$APP Responding to these two short reports—actually, we analyzed these issues several months ago. The two key points were that Applovin is accused of exfiltrating META data and that Applovin is engaging in backend direct download activities.
Regarding the data exfiltration claim, Applovin has already issued a response.
AppLovin: Two short seller reports from Fuzzy Panda and Culper. Notes it has been told AppLovin stealing data from Meta in their e-commerce push. WFC analyst said he spoke to APP, they fully refuted META point, said they have an agreement with meta and Meta can audit them whenever they want.
Based on my previous research, Applovin offers a streamlined SDK that facilitates advertisers in transmitting data back; because the data belongs to the advertisers, META really has no means to block it.
As for backend downloads, almost all smartphone OEM use this approach, and Applovin is a client of these OEMs. Your app has undoubtedly been directly downloaded from other OEM as well. If there's a problem, then the responsibility should lie with the OEMs to ban this ad service.
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