S&P 500 (SP500) 옵션

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--5407----R1--5456----S1--5355----SPY Pivot--540----R1--544----S1--534-----ES Pivot--5433-----VIX Pivot--31.97 !!LOl!!

AAPL looked better before 15:10 ET...

Dropping 47% on a major currency is quite an enormous move. I hope just a fat finger or dalio is right:(

Perhaps just another fat finger misprint ?
Since, "they" DO like to keep us all visually off balance..



Interesting that your numbers are the same as that fat finger tho.


This is its' chart drawn 4 years ago ;

USDCNY just went from 7.29 to 3.80. Can anybody confirm this???

Looks like midday big weakness in nasdaq and large cap techs are reversing nicely now, as is AAPL

spartex, the TA setup looks decent
but i'd be more confident if we had
a more steady hand at the national helm.

a random tweet at any random time
can blow any one-direction position.

i considered hedging with offsetting puts,
but decided to risk it, based on the setup for intraday trade.

re: "feeling better now after 4 months,"
time does dull the pain a bit.
but it's still hard.

Good luck imiloa! Hope you make some $$

SPY puts from the double-top ~544 R fail
at ~11:00 ET this morning
would have been a decent play.
but i didn't trust it, amid ongoing chaos
and potential for sudden white house news
changing everything in a second...

spartex,
fwiw, i got some AAPL 220c @ 0.32.
TRIX has been rising since 11:50 ET,
higher S levels since 12:30 ET,
with ADX gapping green.

planning to close all intraday
unless there is a compelling run
on high volume into the close.

in which case, i'll take off
enough to cover cost basis
and let the rest ride overnight.

One can only be sure of one thing, when they awaken me, something is coming no one saw!

spartex, re: "very unclear for any confidence of forward anticipation,"

exactly that.
imo, there is no playbook.
trump is shooting from the hip with reckless abandon,
attempting to bully world leaders into bending the knee.

which will probably work for smaller nations,
but seems the worst possible strategy for china.

1. it suggests trump has no clue about
the importance of "face" in asian culture.
ie: xi can't afford to look weak.

2. usa needs chinese goods far more than china needs usa goods.
viz, the ongoing trade imbalance,
esp electronics which will take many years to source within usa.

3. xi doesn't need to worry about how his citizens react to austerity,
because he's an entrenched dictator,
whereas trump is a wannabe dictator,
in a country with more guns than people,
who is about to dramatically increase the cost-of-living
which he promised his avid and well-armed supporters
he would bring down "on day one..."

nutshell, imo, trump is playing chicken with a brick wall.
what could possibly go wrong?...

spartex, re: "Frustrating and almost seems to be creating confusion, but for what goal?"

yeah, makes no sense,
esp claiming that the friday tariff exemption never happened,
when it clearly did, per copious evidence, widely reported.

as for what goal,
could be as simple as trump suffering onset dementia,
of which there are many parallel indications.

could also be trump, family, cabinet are, in fact, insider trading
via shell corps and proxies.

imagine how much you could have made on options
trading the swings of the past 2 weeks,
if you knew the policy decisions,
an hour before each announcement.

eg: SPY 530p ran 166x from weds to fri
two weeks ago, when the tariffs became official.

that's $10k rolling into $1.66m in 2 days.

ditto for calls on the bid spike last weds
on 90-day delay news,
but in 15 min rather than 2 days.

VIX LITS Now ---S1 at 34.23 ?

Out 531P 1.34!~ Daily Double! Take It ! Tks Boys!

Riddin 531P .67! Back down to Da 5 min Red Line & Pivot !

Tariffs are the distraction for monetary reform.$37 trillion in the hole has to be refinanced at the lowest rate possible. Just change the value of the medium of exchange works wonder as well;)

Don't think to much, I said that years ago! "China has a saying, you better be able to make it, big talk harms a nation", It took a while for that to sink in for me, but, it's right, and, respecting it has proven to improve peoples lives worldwide... The problem with America? it's always been harmed by over regulation/policies that put people out of business, these days, you can't even find anyone to work. Additionally, America is only a place to make money, nothing more, nothing less, certainly not to live and retire peacefully... Social Security should have been handed of too Wall Street years ago!

I'm not only focused on one area... It's about pointing out the issues behind the scenes that people don't wanna talk about.

We Import Energy?

DUMB POLICIES, EVERYWHERE WE LOOK...

And who was it that suggested a one tax policy?
Remove local, state and FED taxes? HMM,
States hang onto funds in the Billions without returning it, using those funds in money market sweeps is better than being honest with voters?
Banks are going to start cancelling accounts if not used within two years? HMM

Even though, DOGE is in their with there big talk about reducing, the Trade Deficit will still go up!
(Lets bet a dollar on that shall we)??? If I win, you donate it to a children's home near you, because their gonna need it...

I remember people asking, what's the next big thing, telling them, you better consider easing the policies on WEED, its the only thing that help people stay relaxed with what' coming, its just around the corner time based in the timeline...

Interesting too; what can't be tariffed? Crypto, or a new form of payment other than the USD which is also nearing its end as a reserve currency, why would the elites want to consider a limited reserve like BTC? what are their real plans for that we wonder? but, look, its a full moon, everything/body happy now, POTUS said its a good time to buy stocks? a couple other presidents did that, everyone cheered? this one called it too soon is all!

Who is managing the current administration? the SOROS team, what is their end game with all countries? always has been to ?

Nice day

OT: Sometimes you focus on one issue that isn't a problem, but the real issue may be here! Just think about the "big picture" National security may not mean much to you, only your wipes business that produces stuff in China??

"China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.Jul 26, 2023"

Security risks to USA being investigate further by the Senate below link.

A Hidden National Security Problem

VIX----LITS For Open Fib at 35.47! ( 15 min Red Line at 41.49 --- Bears Above////Bulls Below )

Charge Tariffs and Export Tariffs on anything Grown on those foreign owned Lands, but at what % makes sense to force them to sell the land back?

Click here to see what's the real problem

Red Line Round Up ----15 & 30 Min Red Lines Retaken SPX--SPY--ES------SPX 60 min Around 5410 ??

America is at a critical BOILING point,
Stock up, buy local before its too late!

Piovot Calcs: SPX Pivot--5321----R1--5422----R2--5482----S1--5261----S2--5160-----SPY Pivot--530----R1--540----S1--524-----ES Pivot-5352 ----R1--5461----R1--5522----S1--5291-----VIX Pivot--40.17----S1 34.23 !!LOL!!

Something else that is overlooked, how much farmland does China Own in the USA?

Are they already FEEDING America, or are they Exporting there own Harvest?
If there Exporting their own Harvest, would you charge yourself any Tariff? "YOU CAN'T",
"But, they can raise the food prices on Americans"...

Click here to see why Tariffs are irrelevant

That's what a win win looks like,

HMM

Complaining or good points?

The only thing that might happen, Hyperinflation as we saw in Venezuela which led to Whats coming April 20th? "Martial Law"...

Commerce Secretary Lutnick walks back tariff relief on electronics
April 13 2025 - 5:44PM, Cointelegraph
"He is the proponent/component of Tariffs, part of the Soros Educated Team"

Sorry, I won't build a shop with all the RED TAPE, preventing me from producing anything needed, take something as simple as Alcohol Wipes, which are also now under ATF Control as well, what do they get involved for?? Increased requirements regardless of whose in the office means? "SORRY", WE WON'T be building, Public companies will take your seed money and make promises till the next administration comes in, and b no means will I borrow money I paid in tariffs to BUILD EITHER !!! "You have a REAL GOOD IMAGINATION"...

Additionally, do you know whose in the office now? "The Soros Trained Team, Global Market Chaos ("C"-rashers")..

There talking about deporting Americans now too, and, if your innocent, your "ON YOUR OWN BABY", to bad if you can't afford an attorney to bring you back AFTER THE DAMAGE IS DONE...

Have faith,

RIGHT, YOU MUST BE RIGHT...

Keep in mind, He played the tariff card when the Tariffs weren't actually implemented,only delayed for ?

Explain this chart where the current low isn't even factored in yet...

I believe that is correct, the 20% is still on as it relates to the fentanyl. And Commerce Sec mentioned there are some other chip tariffs that may come on in a month or two. So it is very unclear for any confidence of forward anticipation. Hell if we can figure out the "playbook" as it is constantly moving.

Thx for your thoughts regarding my parents. I'm feeling better now after 4 months has passed, as time does heal ones losses.

Yeah, I saw that update today too. Frustrating and almost seems to be creating confusion, but for what goal?

spartex, sad to hear about your parents.
even when expected, it's def still hard.

re: USA national debt,
def agree it needs addressing.
but i'm not confident trump will do it.
his clear priority is hefty tax cuts for wealthy and corps again.
and trump increased the deficit in his first term
more than either obama or biden.
some of that was covid spending,
but ~2.5t was directly due to tax cuts for the wealthy.
time will tell.

re: AAPL, check the trump post in my prior msg.
looks like the electronics tariffs are back on,
but, if i'm parsing his babble accurately,
maybe only 20% tariffs for AAPL,
instead of the 125%?

of course, that might all change tmrw morning.
nothing is certain with trump.
just a wild unpredictable rollercoaster.

bond market clearly showing
that global investors are losing faith
in the stability of usa markets.

spartex, trump flip-flopped yet again...
after clearly exempting electronics on friday,
he posted today that the exemption never happened...

ES futs gapped up at the open tonight,
but sold off a bit since then.

no telling what will happen tmrw.
markets hate uncertainty
and there is nothing certain about trump trade policy.

[[ NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff “bucket.” The Fake News knows this, but refuses to report it. We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations. ]]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114332337028519855

Bend the knee or be tariffed (from MarketEar; ZeroHedge premium account)

A week for the history books. Largest 1-day gain since the GFC – before that, the last time it happened was in 1939 (!). It feels like more and more countries will bend the knee to Trump in terms of tariffs. And the collective bending of the knee of Big Tech at the inauguration now directly pays off as tech will be exempt from China tariffs. Looking at some extreme positioning data, one would conclude that bears also will have to bend the knee soon and that there won't be another low.

My guess is Bitcoin to trade sideways to down for the next few weeks to a month to hit my target 72k then eventually take off from there. S&P to follow it’s trend as usual.

As of November 1st, 2021 Yahoo’s suite of services will no longer be accessible from mainland China. Yahoo products and services remain unaffected in all other global locations. We thank you for your support and readership.

I remember when Yahoo was so kind as to put my moms email in the spam folder. The problem still exists with spam sent through email, I wonder, when will they realize it's how undesirables communicate these days...

No, I don't. in the future, you'll remember mine more than anyone else's

You need to break down your charts using clear standard units and labeling versus cartoons.

Is your right side Y axis the DOW index (see below) asa it seems from the number values; right size Fib?
And is your DOW pivot from the next "top" Dec 2025 from what I could see on your chart?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/

Potus, played a good one on us last time, which played into our hands seen here;



Frankly speaking, the market goes up, I make money, the market goes down, I make even more money to use that money to increase my dividend paying shareholdings... No, I'm not interesting in sharing which Ones;

But, I will say, the "Benner Fibonacci" trend back to 2026 is a big possibility now with "Trumps good time to buy Stocks", But here's the problem with that, it resets every 48 years? Meaning, 2025 swing, my only problem with Trump, he didn't Admit he inherited a Bubble, and then played his only Trump card off our 36500 Trend Line claiming it's a good time to buy stocks? One only review my profile, I do keep track of past comments from former Presidents... "but, IHUB limits data we can keep available and I won't be able to enter the current POTUS message, so what IHUB? Here we are today? We see that the real selling hasn't even begun yet? Meaning, the tariffs aren't even the real underlying problem..



I'm keeping all my stocks, "none are the top 1000", "rolled up my shorts"...

Yes, "I'm still short"...

Oh, and by the way, that news was released on Saturday to/for? Certainly not the Iphone distributor sitting on millions of Iphones he will have to liquidate them now, thinking he would get an extra 25-100%, and, not to me... I won't look to buy Liquidations until the first quarter of 2026

Hey imiloa, good to hear from you!

Yeah, Trump heard from Tim Cook and a few other CEOs that they need some serious chunks of time to make their transition shift.

I think your projection of a possible 10% pop or more for Apple is very realistic. For me, I'm just happy with my position in S&P500 indexes after it started to fall in into March, and then the tariff bottom fell out!

The US still needs to manage its massive debt, and that requires reducing spending, inflation and the 10 year yield, and other longer end treasuries as there will be a large amount of debt issuance this Fall and beyond. Good luck imiloa on your positions, and hope you are doing well! PS: both of my folks have passed in Nov and Dec, and it was all expected, but always a difficult time right in the middle of Thanksgiving and Christmas. 🙏 Life is short, and much shorter as we enter retirement! Need to enjoy the beauty of Life before we enter the next stage!

for clarity,
here's what i'm looking at.

before the tariff crash,
AAPL support was ~219.
with R in the ~250+ range.

seems likely tariff-exempt AAPL
is worth at least 220,
if not 230+.?

hey spartex,
long time, not chat.

re: "exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs,"
i saw that, too.
my first thought was,
"tim cook threw donnie some manner of bone..."

2nd thought was,
consider SPY and AAPL calls monday morning,
depending on how far they gap up...

Notice to US tech investors, and shorts too!

Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs

Hah, another shift to take the tariff heat off w/ big exemptions to allow tech and chip companies time to adjust to shifting their factories!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

US's tariff negotiation = asking and forcing the country victim to buy more and more US T- Bills notes every week, every month!! non stop!!

So your charts are indicating DIA goes down to 262.5 ....."confidence restored" line????

Notice to Day Traders?

What a surprise! the algo went to reset line to load more inventory



.. and you KNEW all those lines before market open! crazy

Macro---SPX needs take out Weds Hi 5481---Otherwise just 2 inside Days ???

Red Lines--- Red Lines Retaken 15 & 30 mins-----With exception of SPX----Allways the Holdout ??

VIX---9:00--VIX Dropped Below DA 15 MIN -SPX 5 min CCI By/Sig---Mkt Advanced Off Da 5 Min Red Line!!-----539C .52---1.85---DD Tks Boys! Lookin Good So Far !!

much nicer Boyz, we know how to play that