MTG Downgraded to Neutral - Analyst Blog
28 6월 2011 - 9:30PM
Zacks
We are downgrading our recommendation on the shares of
MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) to Neutral from
Outperform, following the company’s first quarter 2011 results,
which missed the earnings guidance due to higher paid losses, lower
rescission and increased claims.
For the past couple of years, MGIC has been hit hard by the
deterioration in mortgage and housing markets. However, the gradual
improvement in residential mortgage markets is expected to lead the
company to profitability.
MGIC attempted to narrow mortgage-related losses by reviewing
more claims for rescissions. Historically, these have not accounted
for a material portion of the company’s resolved claims. But, with
the detection of fraudulence in 2006 and 2007 books of business,
the rescission activity in 2008 substantially mitigated the
company’s paid and incurred losses. However, the rescission benefit
declined in 2010 and will likely decrease further in 2011, as the
benefit has already been realized almost up to its full extent.
MGIC’s net investment income has been under pressure for the
past couple of years due to a drop in the average investment yield,
offset by an increase in the average amortized cost of invested
assets. The decrease in investment yield was driven by lower
prevailing interest rates and a fall in the average maturity of
investments. We expect the same trend to continue in 2011 as
well.
Moreover, owing to stiff competition from the Federal Housing
Authority (FHA), MGIC’s market share has been declining. Also, FHA
has received the regulatory approval to increase its monthly
premium since October 2010. However, this rate hike is being viewed
positively by MGIC. Management expects that the rate hike by its
competitor, along with MGIC’s new credit tiered pricing, would make
MGIC’s products more competitive and enhance its market share as
well. This was also evident from the company’s fourth quarter
results, wherein new insurance written improved 20% sequentially to
$4.2 billion.
Delinquency rates declined 113 basis points sequentially and 179
basis points year over year to 16.4% in the first quarter. We
expect delinquencies to improve further and reserve per delinquency
to trend down going forward.
However, MGIC is also experiencing a setback with respect to
credit ratings. The mortgage insurance industry has historically
viewed a financial strength rating of “Aa3/AA-” as critical to
writing new business. The company is currently rated “Ba3” by
Moody’s Investors Service and “B+” by Standard & Poor’s Rating
Services; the outlook for both the ratings is negative. Therefore,
MGIC’s below-par rating renders it incapable of writing
considerable new business.
Based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, MGIC competes closely with other
mortgage providers such as PMI Group Inc. (PMI)
and Radian group Inc. (RDN). The stock of MGIC
carries a Zacks Rank # 4, which translates into a Sell rating over
the short term (1-3 months). However, over the longer time horizon
(6+ months), as the mortgage market slowly recovers, we expect the
company’s business to improve and therefore, we rate the shares
Neutral.
MGIC INVSTMT CP (MTG): Free Stock Analysis Report
PMI GROUP (PMI): Free Stock Analysis Report
RADIAN GRP INC (RDN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Zacks Investment Research
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