DiscoverGold
5 일 전
Gold Bear Flag Breakdown Faces Uncertainty
By: Bruce Powers | December 6, 2024
• Gold hovers near critical support levels, signaling either a potential reversal above the 20-Day MA or a deeper decline targeting Fibonacci and trendline zones.
Another failed breakdown from a bearish flag pattern triggered in gold on Friday. Gold dropped below the lower parallel line (purple) defining the flag and the 20-Day MA, which is in a similar price area.
However, so far, the breakdown does not seem to be attracting sellers as once support was reached at a low of 2,614 for the day, buyers took back control and drove the price back up to above the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,629. Gold may yet close above the 20-Day line and retain support. Moreover, there is the possibility that a bullish hammer candlestick pattern is formed today.
Breakdown Does not Follow-Through
Price behavior around the flag opens a question of whether the flag will turn out to be a valid pattern. As with all consolidation patterns, they can evolve and morph into larger or different patterns. There remains a bear flag but if gold closes above the 20-Day line it has a chance to continue to strengthen.
Therefore, a rally above today’s high of 2,614 could lead to gold again testing resistance around recent daily highs of 2,632 or the 50-Day MA at 2,668. A rally above and subsequent daily close above the 50-Day line would need to happen before gold was able to keep rising. Also, a minor swing low pivot is at 2,666 and it can be viewed in a similar manner to the 50-Day line.
Bounce Possible
Confirmation of the flag breakdown would be indicated on a drop below today’s low of 2,614, and more so on a decline below the bottom of the flag at 2,605. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the short upswing completed at 2,607, which led to the bounce that formed the flag. The next lower support zone is around the most recent swing low of 2,537.
If that price area fails to hold and reverse a decline, the next lower target zone is down around 2,473. It includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing that began from the May swing low, two trendlines, and the target for a falling ABCD pattern (D). The two trendlines to watch include the bottom falling parallel channel line and a rising trendline.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 일 전
Gold’s Monster Upleg Well
By: Adam Hamilton | December 6, 2024
Gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well, after weathering a sharp post-election selloff. One had certainly been due, as gold had just surged to extremely-overbought levels. The resulting pullback was big and fast, doing much essential rebalancing work. Gold’s resilience defying some bearish headwinds is a bullish omen. Despite its massive size, this monster upleg doesn’t look ready to give up its ghost yet.
I don’t use this “monster” term lightly, reserving it for gold uplegs exceeding 40% gains. Over a long 12.9-month span from early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold rocketed a jaw-dropping 53.1% higher! A year ago gold achieved its first nominal record close in fully 3.3 years. Since then, a whopping 42 more have been written into the books! Superlatives don’t overstate the magnitude of gold’s powerful bull run.
Technically this past year’s surge remains an extraordinarily-large upleg within a bigger bull market. Bulls are defined as 20%+ gains off major lows. Within those usually-secular uptrends, smaller uplegs and corrections meander. Uplegs last until they are formally ended by 10%+ corrections, which sometimes cascade into 20%+ bear markets slaying bulls. Sub-10% selloffs within uplegs called pullbacks don’t kill them.
As long as mid-upleg selloffs remain in that pullback range, uplegs remain intact. It’s pretty amazing to see gold blast 50%+ higher without retreating 10%+! Gold’s last couple 40%+ uplegs achieving monster status both crested in 2020, at 42.7% and 40.0% gains. Those were followed by correction-magnitude selloffs of 12.1% and 18.5%, which finished those uplegs. Subsequent ones can’t emerge until gold bottoms.
From late October to mid-November 2024, gold suffered an 8.0% selloff at worst which is a larger pullback. It wasn’t a correction-grade drop resetting gold’s upleg status. I had been warning that one was inevitable and looming, first in our weekly subscription newsletter in late September. I wrote “Specs’ gold-futures positioning being excessively-bullish betting on gold upside is actually really bearish for the yellow metal.”
“This continues to worry me considerably, as odds sure favor an imminent big-and-sharp gold selloff. It will probably be a larger pullback, 6% to 9%ish.” Later in early October I wrote an entire essay analyzing gold’s high selloff risk. The reasons were gold was extremely-overbought and speculators’ gold-futures longs were exceedingly-high, just hitting their 5th-highest levels on record! Both portended sizable gold selling.
Gold defied that for a bit, surging again into late October on momentum buying. Gold finally crested at $2,786 on October 30th, stretching way up to 1.183x its 200-day moving average! That is extremely-overbought, meaning gold had surged too far too fast for those price levels to be sustainable based on its own historic precedent. Dividing gold’s closes by its 200dma and charting resulting multiples quantifies this.
I call this Relative Gold or rGold, and this chart is updated from that gold-selloff-risk-high essay. Gold and its key technicals are rendered on the right axis, superimposed over rGold in red off the left. Dividing gold by its 200dma effectively flattens that important technical baseline to horizontal at 1.00x. Then gold’s price action relative to it is revealed in constant-percentage terms. Gold looked precarious before the elections.
Gold soaring 18.3% above its trailing 200dma on October 30th was exceedingly-rarefied territory. How rare? Over the last decade, gold has only closed 18%+ above its 200dma on 0.8% of all trading days. Seeing gold that overbought is less than a 1-in-125 event! And all past episodes seeing such extreme overboughtness marked gold toppings, usually major ones. Big correction-grade selloffs normally follow...
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 일 전
Gold Price Forecast: Bear Flag on Deck
By: Bruce Powers | December 5, 2024
• Bearish patterns in gold suggest further downside potential, with $2,536 as a key pivot and $2,470 as a possible target before a potential reversal.
Gold fell on Thursday and triggered a breakdown of a potential bearish flag pattern (purple lines). It dropped through both the 20-Day MA and the bottom line of the flag, which are marking the same price area. The low for the day was 2,624, at the time of this writing, which was below both the trendline and 20-Day line but not below the recent minor swing low within the flag at 2,622.
A daily close below the 20-Day MA, now at 2,631 will provide further bearish evidence, while a decline below the 2,622-swing low further triggers a breakdown. Nonetheless, a daily close below 2,622 will confirm the bear flag breakdown.
Watching for Bearish Confirmation
If the breakdown continues to progress the recent swing low 2,605 should be exceeded to the downside. The bear flag is contained within a larger developing bearish pattern reflected in a falling
ABCD pattern. That should increase the chance for gold to reach lower targets if sellers do take back control. In other words, if downside momentum increases. In addition, there was a sharp one-day decline in gold before the flag formed. The sharp decline created a clear flagpole. An initial lower target for gold is around the recent swing low of 2,536. That swing low completed a 50% retracement. Further, since there is only one more day left to the week, gold is on track to complete an inside week.
Falling ABCD Pattern Points to 2,470 Potential
The developing descending ABCD pattern indicates an initial lower target at 2,470. Since the bear flag is accompanying the ABCD pattern it would seem to improve the chance that gold tests the 2,470-price zone before the current correction is complete. Of course, support around the 50% level at 3,522 or a little lower, may be enough to stop the descent and lead to a bullish reversal. That will be the next key pivot if the flag breakdown progresses.
If the breakdown does not progress and instead a rally above the four-day high of 2,657 occurs, the flag is further developing. Key potential resistance would then be around the 50-Day MA at 2,668 and last Friday’s high of 2,666.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
7 일 전
Gold Bear Flag Pattern Signals Potential Bearish Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | December 4, 2024
• Resistance at $2,666 and 50-Day MA challenges gold’s recovery, while bearish continuation may lead to drop below November’s swing low.
Gold has formed a developing bear flag pattern (purple) since a 2,605-swing low was established a week ago Tuesday. Notice that the pattern has encountered both the 50-Day MA (orange), now at 2,669, and the 20-Day MA (purple) at 2,635, as it developed.
Today, support was seen at 2,632, around the convergence of the lower rising parallel line of the flag formation. Given the sharp selloff following a lower swing high of 2,721 (C) last week, the expectation is for an eventual bearish continuation. Once the top of the flag is determined by a flag breakdown, a potential target can be assessed.
50-Day MA Resistance
The area to watch for potential resistance is around the 50-Day MA as a daily close above it would be a sign of strength. Since the line was successfully tested as resistance last Friday with the high of 2,666, it may again represent resistance. Also, it has the potential of being the top of the flag, as does the 2,666 high. Currently, within the flag there is a higher daily swing low at 2,622 and therefore a decline below that price level would be bearish. Earlier indications of weakness may be noticed around the lower parallel line or the 20-Day MA.
Lower Swing High Followed by Bearish Behavior
Since last week’s swing high established a lower swing high, there is the potential for a bearish continuation of a developing ABCD pattern (orange). If the bear flag triggers, the possibility of reaching lower targets will increase. The prior swing low of 2,537 combines with the 50% retracement level at 2,534. Further down is a potential support range from 2,4873 to 2,470, consisting of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the target from a falling ABCD pattern, respectively.
200-Day MA Down at 2,441
The long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, is a little lower at 2,441. That moving average is important for the long-term gold trend. Notice that the line was reclaimed in mid-October 2023. There were then several tests of the line as support and price reversed to the upside each time. However, the current decline presents the possibility of another test of the 200-Day line as support following a strong advance and movement up and away from the line. Given the above bearish short-term implications, the possibility of gold eventually testing support around the 200-Day line needs to be considered.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 주 전
Gold in 60 Seconds
By: Mark Mead Baillie | December 1, 2024
Saluti dalla Toscana! As indicated a week ago, our missive this time ’round is a brief read, but to the point; (our usual month-end graphics content shall instead be to-date in a week’s time).
Gold settled the abbreviated trading week (Friday) at 2674, -128 points below its All-Time High of 2802 (30 October). But price’s points volatility is well above normal: the average high-low weekly trading range across these past four is 132 points, such like average not seen since that ending 09 April 2020 as COVID unsettled the investing world.
Regardless of Gold’s recent careening about, the current weekly parabolic Short trend just completed its third week. And should price in this ensuing week not eclipse up through 2791 (i.e. +117 points above present price), such Short trend shall have completed a fourth consecutive week for the first time since that ending 25 August 2023. Here are Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date:
Also as anticipated in our prior missive, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index would be this past week’s key metric. Such “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge registered for October at +0.3%, which annualized of course is +3.6%, thus exceeding the Federal Reserve’s preference for a +2.0% pace. And per our table for October’s inflation measures, the Core PCE’s actual 12-month summation of +2.8% too remains Fed-excessive, as does every cell in the graphic, save for the headline Producer Price Index:
Generally, Gold responds positively to Fed benevolence. And come the Open Market Committee’s next Policy Statement on 18 December, whilst ’tis not set in stone for a FedFunds rate cut, the conventional wisdom “assumption” shall look to another -25bp reduction. For after all, Fed policy tends — indeed is “expected” — to trend. And a Fed cut ought redound well for Gold, perhaps reversing the weekly parabolic trend from Short back to Long and further to a new All-Time High just in time for Christmas.
Further, the Economic Barometer remains rather steady through recent months. Were it instead to be rising, it might give pause for the Fed to — well — pause. Moreover, 33 metrics still are due for the Baro prior to the next Fed meeting in two-and-a-half weeks’ time. Alors, on verra. Here’s the Baro:
Thus in brief this week for Gold, our bottom line is to remain wary of price — at least technically — sporting some degree of confusion given the aforenoted volatility. To be sure, the weekly parabolic trend is Short, and by Gold’s page at the website, the 21-day linear regression trend is negative; however both Gold’s “BEGOS Market Value” and Market Magnet appear at present non-committal as to near-term direction. Yet to better one’s analytical perspective, by our Market Rhythms page, there are presently 11 for Gold which qualify to make that list, (as updated daily).
‘Course — fundamentally — priced today at 2674 versus the opening Scoreboard’s debasement valuation of 3778 reminds us that broadly: Gold is still ever so cheap!
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 주 전
Gold After Trump Wins
By: Adam Hamilton | November 29, 2024
Gold has sure had a wild ride in the several weeks since the US elections! It first plunged then surged after Trump’s decisive victory, which surprised legions of traders. Gold’s earlier big down days helped fuel fears another Trump administration is bearish for gold. Its poor performance after Trump’s first win eight years ago buttresses that case. But that’s probably not predictive in today’s wildly-different environment.
On Election Day 2024, gold closed at $2,743. That was just 1.5% under its latest nominal record high achieved four trading days earlier. But the next day when Trump’s big win was already apparent, gold plunged 3.0%. That was its worst day by far since a 3.6% plummeting in early June on a huge US-jobs upside surprise, which in turn was gold’s biggest daily loss in 3.6 years. Then more post-election selling came.
By Friday the 15th eight trading days later, gold had plunged 6.6% since Election Day. That extended its total selloff since late October to a big-and-sharp 8.0% pullback. Bearishness flared on that, and I heard from plenty of newsletter subscribers worried gold was following the post-2016-election script the last time Trump won. That’s understandable and certainly worth considering, as gold didn’t fare well eight years ago.
On November 8th, 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. He won 304 electoral votes to her 227, but lost the popular vote 46.1% to 48.2% with 63.0m Americans electing him. Gold closed at $1,276 that Election Day, then suffered sizable selling in its wake. Eight trading days later, gold had fallen 5.2%. And selling continued from there, hammering gold much lower.
By late December 2016 just over six weeks after Trump’s win, gold had fallen 11.5% in that span. That extended a larger correction since early July that year to 17.3%, threatening new-bear territory. Gold did start recovering from there rather than rolling over more, but a year later well into Trump’s first term it had only eked out a 0.4% gain since elections. The leading GDX gold-stock ETF slumped to a 4.5% annual loss.
Considering this history, and gold initially tracking 2016’s post-election precedent after Election Day this year, it’s easy to see why plenty of traders are worried about gold’s fortunes under Trump’s second term. But this superficial analysis ignores the broader context surrounding gold’s moves. Gold’s price action largely results from several major drivers interacting, and today’s setup is wildly-different from eight years ago.
Gold’s two dominant primary drivers are speculators buying and selling gold futures and investors’ capital inflows and outflows. These two groups of traders have very-dissimilar focuses and time horizons. Gold-futures trading allows crazy-extreme leverage, running as high as 22.9x mid-week! At those levels a mere 4.4% gold move against positions wipes out 100% of capital risked, forcing an ultra-myopic worldview.
Those guys can’t afford to be wrong for long, so they only care what gold is likely to do in hours, days, or maybe weeks. Gold-futures speculators watch the US dollar’s fortunes for their main trading cues, then usually do the opposite. They tend to aggressively buy when the dollar weakens substantially, and rush to sell on material dollar strength. Gold futures’ huge leverage gives them proportionally-outsized gold influence.
At 23x, every dollar traded in gold futures has 23x the price impact on gold as a dollar invested outright! So though the overall capital deployed in hyper-risky gold futures is quite small, it punches way above its weight. Specs’ gold-futures trading often proves the tail wagging the gold-price dog, influencing how even investors view gold’s prospects and thus their capital flows. Investors naturally have far-longer time horizons.
While spec gold-futures positioning is reported weekly, comprehensive global gold fundamental data is only published quarterly by the World Gold Council. But the combined holdings of the mighty American GLD and IAU gold ETFs, which dominate global ones backed by physical gold bullion, are often a good proxy. The WGC’s latest Q3’24 data revealed GLD and IAU command 39% of the world’s gold-ETF bullion!
So understanding how gold fares after Trump wins not only involves its prices, but specs’ gold-futures trading on both the long and short sides, the benchmark US Dollar Index’s fortunes often driving that, Fed-rate-trajectory expectations which fuel material dollar moves, capital inflows and outflows into GLD and IAU as evidenced by their gold-bullion holdings, and gold’s degree of overboughtness and oversoldness!
I’ve been racking my brain trying to coherently distill all that into a pair of charts covering each Trump win, but failed to figure it out. So rather than risk getting bogged down in a half-dozen-plus charts, I’m going all-text this week. For our purposes today, the high-level interaction among all these key gold drivers is more important than their individual detail. Gold’s setups surrounding both elections couldn’t be more different.
Back in early July 2016 four months before Trump’s first win, gold had blasted to $1,365 for the first time ever. That was driven by a combination of spec gold-futures buying on a weakening USDX and American stock investors buying GLD and IAU shares faster than gold was being bought. Gold’s strong run then included an enormous 4.8% up day, and stretched gold to extremely-overbought levels 1.152x its 200dma!
Speculators were all-in gold futures, holding 440.4k long contracts which was then a record! Their shorts were very low too at 100.2k. Since gold-futures trading is so incredibly-risky, the traders and capital in that realm are very finite. Once spec gold-futures positioning grows too extreme, major mean reversions back the opposite ways are inevitable. So huge gold-futures selling hit both before and after 2016’s elections.
Again speculators’ gold-futures contracts held are reported weekly. Huge moves in longs or shorts start at 20k contracts in a single week. In early and mid-October 2016, total spec longs plummeted 33.0k and 42.0k contracts! Then in mid-November in the week immediately after Trump’s first victory, spec longs cratered an even-huger 45.9k contracts! That epic long liquidation was fueled by a surging US dollar.
The USDX blasted up 3.4% in the eight trading days after 2016’s elections, a big move for the world’s reserve currency. Traders were flocking to the US dollar because the Fed was increasingly signaling it would soon resume its interrupted rate-hike cycle. Back in mid-December 2015, the FOMC had hiked rates for the first time since way back in June 2006, finally slaying its 7.0-year-old zero-interest-rate policy!
Then Janet Yellen was running the Fed, a lifelong Democrat partisan. And the Fed is overwhelmingly Democratic, with over 90% of its current 400+ PhD economists registered Democrats! Fed officials prize central-bank independence above all else, and Republican lawmakers have questioned that over the years. So Yellen held off on hiking rates again for an entire year, trying to boost Clinton’s odds of winning in 2016.
Trump’s first win that November was considered one of the biggest political upsets in US history, with way-lower expectations he’d pull it off than in 2024. Once he prevailed, the Fed no longer had to worry about how rate hikes would affect voters’ perceptions of the US economy with Democrats in power. So Yellen and crew hiked rates a second time in that cycle in mid-December 2016, telegraphing that since elections.
That Yellen Fed would hike three more times in 2017, then another four in 2018! Gold was staring down the barrel of a major Fed-rate-hike cycle after Trump’s 2016 win. Traders really worried about that, despite the fact gold thrived through hiking cycles historically. After that election, Republicans regaining power unleashed the Democratic Fed to hike aggressively. Thus investors fled gold along with gold-futures specs.
Between gold’s early-July-2016 peak and Election Day that year, GLD+IAU holdings stayed very stable merely edging 1.2% lower to 1,180.7 metric tons. American stock investors weren’t worried about that paused Fed-rate-hike cycle with Obama still president and Clinton universally expected to win. But once the underdog Trump prevailed, rate-hike fears exploded given the Fed’s history of political monetary policy.
So from Election Day to the Fed’s second rate hike of that cycle in mid-December, GLD+IAU holdings suffered a major 11.4% or 134.9t draw! American stock investors were selling gold-ETF shares way faster than gold itself was being sold. That forces gold-ETF share prices to decouple from gold’s to the downside, failing their tracking mission. So ETF managers sell gold bullion to use the proceeds to buy shares.
That sops up excess supply, keeping gold-ETF prices mirroring gold’s own. Investors’ frightened exodus from gold started just two days after Trump’s first win, when GLD+IAU holdings suffered a series of big 1.4%, 1.1%, and 1.0% daily draws! Those persisted with a 1.2% one in late November and another 1.4% one in early December. Selling begets selling, driving gold lower multiplying worries triggering more selling.
Interestingly the dust didn’t settle on American stock investors fleeing gold until late January 2017, when the total GLD+IAU-holdings draw since Election Day extended to 15.5% or 183.3t! Specs aggressively dumped gold futures in that span too, with total longs collapsing 89.2k contracts while total shorts climbed 24.5k. But again all that centered around Fed-rate-hike expectations and a resulting surging US dollar.
Higher rates are bullish for the dollar because they increase yields on dollar-denominated bonds relative to major-currency competitors. Between Election Day 2016 and just after the Fed’s second hike of that cycle in mid-December, the USDX blasted 5.3% higher! The gold action after Trump’s first win resulted from the Fed’s first rate-hiking cycle accelerating after seven long years of ZIRP, it wasn’t a Trump thing.
Fast-forward eight years, and top Fed officials are again waxing way more hawkish than they were a month ago when traders generally expected Harris to win. The Democratic Fed is way more likely to hold rates low or cut during Democrat administrations, and way more likely to keep rates high or hike during Republican ones. So the expected Fed-rate trajectory has again shifted since Trump’s second win this month.
According to betting markets, Trump’s odds of winning in November 2024 hit their low ebb around late September. That’s also right when the USDX slumped to a 14.2-month low of 100.4. In the middle of that month, futures implied traders were expecting 110 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the rest of 2024 along with another 126bp next year! That was nine-plus 25bp rate cuts over eleven FOMC meetings by year-end 2025.
In mid-September leading into elections, the political Fed not only executed its first rate cut in 4.5 years but made it a crisis-level 50bp one! That outsized cut certainly wasn’t justified economically, but it would goose stock markets. When they rally in the final few months before voting, Americans feel better about the economy really upping the odds the incumbent party will retain the presidency. So a cutting cycle was born!
Yet as Trump’s betting-market odds of winning again surged in October, so did the USDX. In just a month out of those lows, it soared 4.0%! The main reason was if Trump managed to pull off a victory, the Democrat-dominated Fed was less likely to cut rates as aggressively. It certainly wouldn’t start hiking, but it could dramatically slow its new rate-cut cycle. So expected Fed rate cuts already collapsed by Election Day.
They ran 39bp more in 2024 on top of that maiden 50bp cut, followed by another 66bp in 2025. That was the equivalent of just six 25bp cuts total, down by over a third since Harris’s chances of winning looked highest! The FOMC cut another 25bp two days after this year’s elections, but this week only 71bp more cuts were priced in by year-end 2025 on top of the 75bp so far. That makes for 146bp total, a massive drop.
Again back in late October, fully 236bp of cuts were priced in over that span! So though gold certainly isn’t facing an accelerating rate-hike cycle like eight years ago, it is definitely contending with fewer cuts driving the dollar higher. That more-moderate rate trajectory under Trump than had Harris won really amplified dollar buying after 2024’s results were in. Trump’s second victory proved way more decisive.
He had already won the morning after Election Day, securing 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226. Trump also won the popular vote 50.0% to 48.4%, with a way-higher 76.9m Americans selecting him to be the next president! That surprised so many traders the USDX soared 1.6% higher the day after elections this year, its biggest up day since March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic! That’s why gold plunged 3.0%.
One of gold’s biggest down days in years right after Trump won again kindled all these 2024-to-2016 gold comparisons. And there are some parallels. Gold had just surged to extremely-overbought levels way up at 1.183x its 200dma in late October. And spec gold-futures longs had soared way up to a near-record 441.0k contracts in late September, a hair over July 2016’s extremes. So gold was overdue for another selloff.
I warned about this extensively before the elections, even dedicating an entire essay to gold’s high selloff risk in early October. With gold so exceedingly-overbought and spec gold-futures longs so extremely-overextended, we ratcheted up the trailing-stop-loss percentages in our newsletter gold-stock trades to lock in more of our big unrealized gains. A sizable-to-big gold selloff was looming with or without elections.
Interestingly enormous gold-futures mean-reversion long dumping erupted the week before elections, when specs jettisoned a colossal 30.6k longs! That ranked in the top 3.1% of all weeks since early 1999. Yet in the week immediately following Trump’s second win, specs’ gold-futures long selling was almost cut in half to 16.4k despite gold’s huge 3.0% down day. The week after, long selling moderated again to 11.3k.
Two weeks of speculators’ gold-futures-positioning data has been reported since 2024’s elections, with 27.7k longs sold. The first three weeks after 2016’s saw a way-larger 65.6k dumped! So speculators are not fleeing gold futures anywhere near like they did eight years ago. And they shouldn’t, as no rate-hike cycle is looming. While the expected pace of cutting has moderated, we’re still in a young Fed-rate-cut cycle.
At best since Election Day, the USDX has surged 3.9% as of last Friday. That’s right in line with the 3.8% eight years ago over a similar post-election timeframe. Yet not only has specs’ gold-futures selling been way smaller, so has investors’ according to GLD+IAU holdings. Following Trump’s second win, there was a six-trading-day streak of draws. But they were small, 0.3% at worst with all totaling just 1.0% or 13.1t.
Again after 2016’s elections, GLD+IAU suffered major daily draws as big as 1.4%. In the first six trading days after Trump’s first win, they had already plunged 3.8% or 44.3t! And that mass exodus from gold-ETF shares with Fed rate hikes threatening would continue. By 16 trading days later which is where we are mid-week today, GLD+IAU holdings had collapsed 9.3% or 109.8t after November 2016’s Election Day!
Investors weren’t fleeing because they were worried about Trump’s tax cuts or tariffs, but because they knew the Democrat-dominated Fed was likely to aggressively hike rates with a Republican administration bearing the consequences. This time around all they have to fear is slower cuts, not hikes. So stunningly in the comparable 16 trading days after 2024’s elections, GLD+IAU holdings have actually fully recovered.
Since Trump’s second win, GLD+IAU holdings have edged up 0.3% or 3.6t! That’s a stark contrast to the huge draw by this point after his first win. On the seventh trading day after these latest elections, GLD+IAU holdings builds resumed on differential buying. That initially started on the IAU side, which professional institutional investors tend to favor over GLD due to IAU’s lower annual percent-of-assets fees of 0.25%.
While GLD is over twice as big and way more popular, it charges 0.40% per year. So gold investment demand quickly recovered and resumed climbing this month with Trump 2.0 nearing, despite similar big US-dollar gains as eight years ago! This psychological environment for gold is way different looking at slower rate cuts than fearing a looming hiking cycle. Gold’s powerful bull-market upleg remains alive and well.
Despite 2024’s sharp post-election pullback that was overdue anyway, gold again merely retreated 8.0% at worst. That cut away all gold’s extreme overboughtness, dragging it back from 1.183x is 200dma in late October to just 1.071x at its nadir on the 15th! Since then gold has bounced 5.7% higher at best in a sharp recovery. Mid-week it was down 3.9% since elections, compared to 8.1% at this point eight years ago.
Trump returning is actually quite bullish for gold, even without more Fed rate cuts. He wants to extend big tax cuts from his first term and pass new ones. American taxpayers having more money to spend will increase inflationary pressures, bidding up prices on goods and services. And big tariffs on imports will also force prices higher before supply chains adjust, which can take years. Higher inflation is bullish for gold.
Given these wildly-different setups leading into Trump’s first and second terms, it’s pretty irrational to worry gold’s post-2024-elections price action will follow post-2016-elections’ precedent. The recent gold selling has already proved short-lived, and offers a great opportunity to load up on bargain gold stocks. They got sucked into gold’s post-election selloff, yet have epic fundamentals as they achieve all-time-record profits!
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The bottom line is gold’s behavior after Trump’s second win has already proven nothing like after his first eight years earlier. Back then the Fed was ramping up its first rate-hike cycle in about a decade, driving the US dollar higher and hitting gold. That helped fuel a mass exodus by both gold-futures speculators and American stock investors, pounding gold much lower. That setup was wildly-different than today’s.
Rather than hiking, the Fed is now engaged in a young cutting cycle. While the rate-cut pace will likely be slower under Trump, that’s still a far cry from hiking. So spec gold-futures selling has been way smaller since elections. And American stock investors quickly resumed differential gold-ETF-share buying after initial kneejerk selling, leaving GLD+IAU holdings higher since Election Day! Gold’s Trump-2.0 outlook is bullish.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
NYBob
2 주 전
The World’s Biggest Buyers of Gold Are Now Among East European Central Banks
By Peter Laca, Agnieszka Barteczko, and Misha Savic
November 28, 2024 at 12:00AM EST
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/11/28/the-worlds-biggest-buyers-of-gold-are-now-among-east-european-central-banks/
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175454013
Peace In The Valley (song) - November 2024 - Pastor Bob Joyce - Household of Faith, Benton, Arkansas
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Kamala seems DRUNK in Latest video, what happened to her? Democrats are all over the place.
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40.3K subscribers
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Multiple Sex Trafficking survivors NAME and EXPOSE Justin Trudeau's "FATHER" in very serious claims.
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STAR NEWS -- Man believed to be member of wealthy Rothschild family dies in LA house fire
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2.41M subscribers
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Gold's U.S. Market Share to Quadruple? $10k+ Price May Be Closer Than You Think | Rick Rule
Kitco NEWS
684K subscribers
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PRAYERS THANKS NOVEMBER 27; I have directed you -
in the way of wisdom. I have led -
you in upright paths.
PROVERBS 4:11
PASCAL NAJADI BOMBSHELL - THEY WERE ALL EXECUTED AT GITMO!
https://rumble.com/v5titoz-pascal-najadi-bombshell-they-were-all-executed-at-gitmo.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
Get To The Bottom Of The NWO Genocide
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Gen. Flynn Issues Emergency Message To President Trump To Call For Global Peace
This Thanksgiving
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What if Canada, United States and Mexico Joined in One Single Country? - Alternate History
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United States vs Canada Country Comparison 2022 | Country Comparison | Canada vs USA
Agent Compare
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Trump threatens sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China
Valley News Live
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North Carolina dumps on hurricane survivors and the Amish
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Elon Waiting For Black Friday Half-Off Sale So He Can Buy MSNBC For Just $30M
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by Tyler Durden
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GAETZ OUT, BRUNSON CASE + TREASON, WHAT COMES NEXT.
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Brunson’s arrest in October 2016 and later indictment on charges of espionage and
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who have enlisted the power of the White House.
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who is being “persecuted in Turkey for no reason”. Vice-president Mike Pence said
Turkey should release Brunson or “face the consequences”.
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STAR NEWS Brunson Brothers William Tell Overture
leatherlips
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Bannon's War Room Rewind | Today 9am Est.
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PRAY HIS PEOPLE - NEWS Breaking: NWO EVIL ELITE WANT Senile Biden To Arm Ukraine with Long-Range Missiles
to Hit Russian Targets!
TO GET WORLD US NUCE GENOCIDE MASS-MURDER WAR GO BEFORE TRUMP IS IN -
TexasNewsStudio
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61.6K subscribers
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How To Make America Great Again ❤️
James Turk 14 November, 2024
https://www.fgmr.com/how-to-make-america-great-again/
Republicans win 218 U.S. House seats, giving Trump >
and Republicans control of government >
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/nov/13/republicans-win-218-u-house-seats-giving-trump-rep/?bt_ee=0qwb4SIOwaN4rELJDOhv3kJECeEIpIQT7GBJmZvQ6UfO2AKeFCmHFEtQLojjpdJ%2B&bt_ts=1731556713886
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Gold prices are up on Friday morning. The price of gold is trading at $2571.25, up $6.40.
The price of silver is trading at $30.69, up 24 cents.
Judy Shelton’s book “Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money” advocates
for a return to a gold standard to restore stability to the U.S. dollar and monetary system.
She criticizes the Federal Reserve’s wide discretion in monetary policy, which leads to
unpredictable decisions and rapid interest rate changes that disrupt markets.
Shelton argues that the current system has led to a significant decline in the dollar’s value
over time, distorting price calculations and favoring those with investment savvy over savers.
To address these issues, Shelton proposes reconnecting the dollar to gold by issuing federal
treasury bonds with gold-redeemability clauses.
She suggests that this approach could provide a more stable monetary regime, reduce currency
manipulation, and potentially allow for longer-dated government debt at lower interest rates.
While acknowledging the political challenges of implementing such a system,
Shelton contends that it would create a more predictable and prosperous economic environment
by limiting the ability of government officials and central bankers to manipulate the currency
for short-term gains.
Japan Officially Names COVID mRNA Vaccine 'Most Deadly Drug in History of Humankind'
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550K subscribers
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Foundation to Battle Injustice
Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:41 UTC
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more than 290,000 children of illegal aliens who have crossed the border are missing.
Thousands of children left without parental supervision are effectively enslaved.
According to Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz and staff of social and medical organizations that work with migrants,
the U.S. government, represented by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, has become a
middleman in the multi-billion dollar child trafficking business.
https://www.sott.net/article/494332-Joe-Biden-and-Kamala-Harris-represent-the-final-leg-of-a-global-human-trafficking-network
Trump Blasts Biden-Harris Regime for Running ‘Largest Pedophile Ring in History’
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September 15, 2024
https://thepeoplesvoice.tv/trump-blasts-biden-harris-regime-for-running-largest-pedophile-ring-in-history/
Kamala Harris sold out 350,000 children
entering the US illegally being used as sex slaves
https://cairnsnews.org/2024/09/28/kamala-harris-sold-out-350000-children-entering-the-us-illegally-being-used-as-sex-slaves/
Biden-Harris admin loses track of 320,000 migrant children —
with untold numbers at risk of sex trafficking and forced labor
by Jennie Taer, The Washington Post, August 21, 2024
TRUMP ANNOUNCES MASS CHILD RESCUE as ABC NASHVILLE CONDUCTS CIA PSYCHOLOGICAL
OPERATION AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO COVER CRIMES AGAINST CHILDREN
AT FORT CAMPBELL ARMY POST
Timothy Holmseth
by Pentagon Pedophile Task Force on September 1, 2024 – USA
President Donald Trump recently alerted the world that 325,000 children have vanished
under the Biden/Harris administration – many are dead and
others are captive in sex slave operations, Trump said.
Trump’s timing was calculated.
On July 13, 2024, the day President Trump was shot in Butler, Pennsylvania, we reported,
“SPECIAL BREAKING REPORT! “CHILD AUCTION” – HILLARY’S BODYGUARD CRAIG
(SAWMAN) SAWYER’S (VETERANS FOR CHILD RESCUE) CHILD TRAFFICKING CAMP
DISCOVERED (PHOTOS and VIDEOS)“. The story reveals Craig Randall (Sawman)
Sawyer has been operating a child sex trafficking farm with an employee of Veterans
For Child Rescue Inc, Kim Kelley, as well as their partner Phillip Drake.
https://timothycharlesholmseth.com/trump-announces-mass-child-rescue-as-abc-nashville-conducts-cia-psychological-operation-against-the-american-people-to-cover-crimes-against-children-at-fort-campbell-army-post/
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550K followers
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HUGE: COURT SAYS NO TO COUNTING BALLOTS RECEIVED AFTER ELECTION DAY!
Judicial Watch
551K subscribers ♥️ 😇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnxyDvsVLFA
ELECTION 2020 TOTAL WIN FOR TRUMP!
This is our Last Chance - Elon on Rogan:
Please share this video everywhere...............
https://youtu.be/SWmBHmuWS7c
‘WATCH USA True American patriot’: TV host reveals the passion behind Donald Trump supporters
Sky News Australia
4.87M subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IumtSljjwjo
Rick Miracle Video Library #76, 2021 video, 5G is a Sterilization, Eugenics Program, Deborah Tavares
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BEWARE; If Harris wins, the United States, as those of us old enough to remember how it used to be, will be over.
PRAYERS FOR HIS CHILDREN - Satanic Hollywood Elites Rape and Eat Children,"
Mia Farrow confesses.
NIGHTBREED
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Y1DkUp4lArR4
John Rustad hails 'historic night' for B.C. Conservatives ❤️
CBC British Columbia
105K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bZzBqqY3PI
US to pay $20 billion into loan for Ukraine – FT
https://www.rt.com/news/605951-us-ukraine-loan-russia-assets/
Reset Coming: New One-World System to Revalue Gold to $150k, Is BRICS the Trigger?
Andy Schectman
Kitco NEWS
680K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-K6tTaqPXXk
BREAKING Voter Fraud?: MTG Investigates Report Of Votes Being Flipped In Georgia + Biden's Martial Law Directives
https://www.bitchute.com/video/kg1RbBkWw4rn
The Biden-Harris Admin ‘Just Made the Biggest Handout to Illegal Aliens in American History
The nation exists not for illegal aliens but for citizens. It has no other purpose. And that explains why affluent liberals like Biden and Harris seek to destroy it.
https://truthpress.com/news/the-biden-harris-admin-just-made-the-biggest-handout-to-illegal-aliens-in-american-history/
Voter Fraud: The Only Issue That Matters in 2024
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/10/voter_fraud_the_only_issue_that_matters_in_2024.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawF_d8NleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHdr6KPZd2azh5PKlVKjaZln9LH9gkUMOnD3_zHYbKAv5tJANpsASxr3fAg_aem_FTk2po_6-4kmTudDwdWQdA
OWG / NWO / World Government Is Our True GENOCIDE EVIL Enemy
https://www.bitchute.com/video/8FWefQSxE3pI
Elon Musk hosts town hall on absentee, early voting | FOX 29 News Philadelphia
FOX 29 Philadelphia
196K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax-mqV9wido&t=45s
WORLD CURRENT NEWS -- THE FED JUST WENT BANKRUPT |
Mike Maloney
https://vigilante.tv/w/wEfP43QVWU9G2gYjRBK9Ab
LOY BRUNSON ON THE INSIDERS CLUB WITH PAUL BROOKER
Charlie Ward and Friends
https://www.bitchute.com/video/qrC7fHd4zWOF
[B]BREAKING! Billionaire Jim Rogers WARNS Buy Silver BEFORE it's TOO LATE.
Silver Slayer
105K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx1riZ7JLqw
Gold's About to Shock Us All! Prepare for BIGGEST Gold & Silver Rally in 50 Years - Francis Hunt
Money Sense
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4uq_HBk4SA
$Gold Breaking Out vs Commodities (Top Chart) As US Dollar Weakens (Bottom Chart)
$GOLD MINERS NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI
The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…
$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRqgjDx8fs4
Central Bank $Gold Buying Doubled in July
Mike Maharrey
September 3rd, 2024
·
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/central-bank-gold-buying-doubled-in-july-003427
DD....$Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX:...
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/aris-mining-ARMN/stock-news/94431244/aris-mining-publishes-its-2023-sustainability-repo
DD....$Pelangio Exploration Inc. NEWS -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015670
DD....$Patagonia Gold Corp, formerly known as Hunt Mining Corp., is a Silver and Gold production company.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175046791
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172090585
$HGLD & $PGDC With One Of The Richest Highest Grade Silver Mine On Earth - Patagonia Gold
& Silver Mines Hard Asset Safety Bargain --
https://patagoniagold.com/wp-content/uploads
BREAKING NEWS: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Urges Voters To Reject Kamala Harris At Trump Michigan Rally
Forbes Breaking News
3.61M subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu47cE8mwqM
http://www.jesus-is-savior.com/
MONUMENT MINING LTD. - MMY - MMTMF -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDpc8GK2EdM
Overview for Monument Mining Limited -
https://www.researchfrc.com/stocks/MMY.V/monument-mining-limited
https://www.researchfrc.com/content/reports/post/152/record-revenue-eps-turns-positive
https://www.researchfrc.com/content/reports/post/111/anticipating-record-gold-production-and-eps
https://monumentmining.com/site/assets/files/4364/mmy-corporate-presentation-october-2024.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monumentmining/
Message in reply to:
report out 0.51 fair value
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1j8gklp-Monument%20Mining%20-%20July%202024%20-%20Update-1.pdf
$Monument Mining Ltd TSXV : MMY / MMTMF ❤️
October Presentation -
https://monumentmining.com/site/assets/files/4364/mmy-corporate-presentation-october-2024.pdf
https://monumentmining.com/news-media/photo-gallery/
https://monumentmining.com/
DiscoverGold
2 주 전
Gold Price Forecast: Faces Resistance at 20-Day MA, Bearish Outlook Builds
By: Bruce Powers | November 28, 2024
• Resistance at the 20-Day MA and bearish candlestick patterns suggest gold’s downtrend may extend, with key support levels at 2,537 and further at 2,470.
Gold found resistance around the 20-Day MA on Thursday with the day’s high of 2,650. It followed a lower daily low to 2,621 earlier in the session. This was the second consecutive day that the price of gold was rejected to the downside from the 20-Day MA. Since today will likely end with a lower daily low and lower high, it supports the possibility of a continuation lower. Notice that today’s low triggered a one-day bearish reversal from Wednesday’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.
Aggressive Selling Seen in Bearish Reversal Candle
On Monday a long red bearish engulfing pattern completed that reflects aggressive selling. Once there is one day of aggressive selling, there is a chance a second or third day. Last week’s high of 2,721 (C), established a lower swing low. Since that is one half of the definition of a downtrend, it increases the chance for a deeper correction.
And the last three days do little to counter that perspective. Resistance was seen the last three days at either the lower trend channel line or the 20-Day MA. This is bearish behavior as it follows a second breakdown of a rising parallel trend channel that triggered on Monday. Note that the short-term bearish outlook may change if there is a sustained rally above Wednesday’s high of 2,658.
Bearish Continuation Below 2,605
A bearish signal will be indicated on a drop below today’s low of 2,621 and further still on a decline below this week’s low of 2,605. The 2,605-price level is key as a drop below it triggers a continuation of the bear trend from Monday’s high. It is part of the second leg down (CD) of a falling ABCD pattern (purple). Previous support around 2,600 would then likely give way to lower prices.
The prior swing low of 2,537 (B) would then be the next lower price target zone. However, a continuation of the ABCD pattern, which seems likely, points to possible support around 2,470. That is part of a confluence zone from 2,484 to 2,470. Several indicators point to the same relatively tight price range, and it includes potential support from an uptrend line and lower declining channel line.
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2 주 전
Gold Faces Bearish Momentum After Bullish Reversal Falters
By: Bruce Powers | November 27, 2024
• Gold’s bullish reversal failed as sellers pushed prices below key support the mid-point of the day’s trading range. Bearish patterns target a confluence zone near 2,470 if the 2,605 daily low is busted.
Gold triggered a one-day bullish reversal of a hammer candlestick pattern on Wednesday. Enthusiasm from the bulls was quickly swatted however, around at the 20-Day MA. Following the day’s high of 2,658, sellers took back control and pushed price down below the half point (2,643) of the day’s trading range. At the time of this writing, gold continues to show weakness as it is trading in the lower half of the day’s trading range. If closes below 2,643, assuming there is not a new high or low for today, then gold should be ready to proceed lower.
Price Rejected at 20-Day MA – Bearish
The 20-Day MA line recently indicated dynamic support for the uptrend, and it was successfully tested today as resistance as the price of gold was rejected to the downside around the line. Also, the same could be said about the relationship to the rising internal trendline. It represented an area of resistance today after previously showing support for the uptrend. This is bearish price behavior typically seen in the development of a downtrend.
Friday’s Plunge May be an Omen
Last Friday’s sharp one-day bearish engulfing reversal day shows aggressive selling, and it mimics the wide range red candle from November 6. That occurred as the decline from the 2,790-record high accelerated. It may have been a warning sign that a bearish continuation may be coming as last week’s high is a lower swing high relative to the record high. If the bears retain control, then the November swing low at 2,537 would be at risk of failing to sustain support.
Falling ABCD Pattern Formed
The bearish pattern that may be developing is a falling ABCD pattern. It is nothing more than a way to calculate two sequential measured moves that are connected by a pullback. Initial targets from the pattern occur where the price change seen in the CD leg of the pattern matches the change in the first AB leg. The first target is where there is symmetry in price between the two swings. Extended targets can also be calculated, and they are based on Fibonacci and other ratios. Nonetheless, although the analysis can provide potential targets, ideally there is confluence with other indicators that point to a similar price target.
The calculation of the purple ABCD pattern on the chart indicates a potential target of 2,470. That level is strengthened as a target because it is also identified in several other ways. Fibonacci ratio analysis shows the 61.8% retracement at 2,473, while there are two trendlines nearby as well, one rising and the other falling. Further, resistance from an interim swing high in July is at 2,484.
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2 주 전
Gold Targets Lower Levels Amid Bearish Signals
By: Bruce Powers | November 26, 2024
• Gold’s correction deepens as bearish patterns dominate, targeting 2,470 where indicators converge, if weakness persists.
Gold fell back below a lower rising channel line on Monday and then stayed below it today, Tuesday. It reached a low of 2,605 following a drop below yesterday’s low before finding support. That low completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,607.
This puts the precious metal in a bearish position following a sharp rally last week. The five-day counter-trend advance ended on Friday with gold in a strong position, above a minor interim swing high of 2,710. Nonetheless, the rally ended on Monday following a slight new high of 2,721. Sellers took back control from there, leading to an enthusiastic drop.
Drops Below Key Levels is Bearish
Although last week’s rally was persistent and saw the price of gold reclaim a rising trendline and two moving average lines, Monday’s sharp drop to a five-day low and weak close negated any bullish indications that may have occurred. For example, potential resistance on the way up was quickly overcome as gold reclaimed a rising channel line, the 50-Day line (orange), now at 2,666, and the 20-Day MA (purple), currently at 2,662, one day at a time.
Those lines represent key potential resistance areas currently, as the correction sets up for a continuation lower. In addition to a new daily close below the moving averages and trend channel, notice that the 20-Day MA is starting to cross below 50-Day MA.
Falling ABCD Pattern Points to 2,470
Since Monday generated a lower swing high, a descending ABCD pattern has been added to the chart in case the correction evolves to a new swing low. Certainly, given yesterday’s bearish close and again today, below the rising trendline, rallies may be met with resistance that leads to lower prices.
The initial target from the pattern, where there is 100% symmetry in the price change between the two falling swings, AB and CD, is at 2,470. Since that price level coincides with both a 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2,473 and a previous support and resistance zone, it becomes a lower target. Further, an uptrend line also goes through that price area and should be watched for signs of support if gold does continue to weaken.
Descending Channel May Lead to Decline Below 2,537
A declining parallel trend channel is shown on the chart by taking the top trendline and making a parallel level to touch the recent swing low at 2,537. It can provide a guide as gold progresses. For example, resistance can be anticipated at or below the top channel line. Additionally, if gold gets above that line and stays above it, demand would be improving rather than declining. The bearish case would be retained if gold stayed below the top downtrend line.
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2 주 전
Gold Continues to See Supporters After Falling Previous Day
By: Christopher Lewis | November 26, 2024
• The gold markets continue to see a lot of noise, as the Monday session has seen a lot of selling pressures. However, the market looks like it is ready to bounce a bit, and at this point, we could see value hunters jumping in.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold markets initially fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks like it is trying to recover and bounce a bit to break above the 50 day EMA.
The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to, and breaking above that opens up the possibility of a move toward the $2,740 level. Anything above that level then opens up to the $2,800 level. There are a multitude of reasons for gold to go higher, the first one of course being simple momentum. We’ve gone pretty directly straight up in the air for several months now.
But beyond that, we also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of geopolitical concerns. I think a lot of the selling from the Monday session probably correlates quite closely to Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a bit of a ceasefire that probably took some of the geopolitical premium out. However, let us not forget there’s a country called Russia, which has a pretty sizable army that’s in a hot war with Ukraine, which is backed by NATO.
So, there are still a lot of things to think about out there. And I do believe the gold will continue to be a large portion of quite a few different portfolios. Short-term dips, I think, continue to be buying opportunities. And the volume has been fairly steady. So that’s actually a good thing. It means that we could probably keep up this momentum over the longer term. Indonesia, India, Russia, and China are all known to be buying gold at the moment through their central banks, so that obviously has an influence as well. At this point, it is a buy on the dip market.
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2 주 전
Gold's Cyclical Picture: What's Next?
By: Jim Curry | November 25, 2024
As mentioned in my prior articles, Gold was in the range where a key peak was expected to form, and with that was due for a sharp correction, first with a tracked 72-day wave, but ideally also with a larger 310-day component. Having said that, a sharp, short-term rally was expected to play out in-between.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The 72-day cycle is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown on the chart below:
From my 11/17/24 article: "the analysis called for a drop back the 72-day moving average for Gold, which has obviously been met with the sharp decline. In terms of time, the detrend that tracks our 72-day wave has now locked in on the late-November to early-December window for its next trough to form."
As mentioned above, our outlook favored a drop back to the 72-day moving average for Gold, which was seen into the most recent swing low. In terms of time, the detrend that tracks this 72-day wave had adjusted its bottoming estimate to the late-November to mid-December timeframe.
While there is at least the potential for this 72-day wave to have troughed at the 2541.50 swing low (December, 2024 contract), the ideal path favored a sharp short-term rally, followed by a push back to or below that figure, to complete that bottom.
From my 11/17/24 article: "the metal should be at or nearing a very sharp short-term rally, coming from the smallest cycle that we track, the 10-day component. The next upward phase of this cycle - once confirmed in force - would be expected to see a sharp rally, ideally taking prices back to - at minimum - the 10-day moving average. Having said that, due to the position of a larger tracked 20-day wave, there would be the potential for that rally to move on up to the higher 20-day moving average."
As noted a week or so back, even with the larger-degree cycles seen as pointing south, Gold was looking for a sharp, short- term rally. In our Gold Wave Trader report, we noted the 2590.20 figure (December, 2024 contract) as the key upside 'reversal point' with price, for our 10-day wave.
With the above said and noted, once Gold took out the 2590.20 figure to the upside, that confirmed a sharp rally to be in force, one which would take Gold back to - at minimum - its 10-day moving average.
You can see this 10-day cycle on the chart below:
Having said the above, due to the position of an a larger tracked 20-day wave, I mentioned the potential for prices to rally back to the higher 20-day moving average. With the above chart, we can see that each of these moving averages have been hit on the most recent swing up, thus meeting this assumption.
In terms of patterns, due to the position of the larger 72-day (and 310-day) cycle, the ideal path favors only a countertrend rally with the smaller-degree waves. If correct, a drop back to - or below - the 2541.50 swing low would have the best technical 'look', and would set up the next buy with our 72-day component.
For now, it is too early to confirm a new downside reversal point for the short-term, though one should ideally materialize in the coming days, depending on the action. The exact number is always posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day wave for Gold, there is the larger 310-day cycle, which last bottomed back in October of last year - and is seen as pushing lower into next Spring:
With the above, Gold recently tested key mid-term resistance, which was the intersection point of the upper 310-day and four-year cycle channels. That resistance level was tested several times, eventually holding the bigger rally - for the sharp decline that followed.
In terms of time, the ideal path - as projected by our detrend - is looking for this wave to push down on the market, ideally holding up into the Spring of 2025 or later. Even with this, there will be the normal up-and-down gyrations in-between, some of which have been seen with the most recent action.
In terms of price, the downside 'risk' for the mid-term view is back to the 310-day moving average, a level which is also expected to provide key support to the bigger bull market in Gold. In terms of patterns, we are expected the decline into the next 310-day trough to end up as a larger - but countertrend - affair, before turning sharply higher again into later next year.
In terms of price, the next rally phase with our 310-day cycle is likely to be something in the range of 20-25% or more off of whatever bottom that forms with this wave. We expect that rally to eventually peak our largest-tracked cycle, the four-year wave, which is shown on the chart below:
For the longer-term outlook, the next major top should come from this four-year wave, ideally made on or after the late-2025 to early-2026 window. From whatever peak that forms with this component, we would expect a drop back to the 48-month moving average or lower for Gold, most likely playing out into the late-2026 to mid-2027 region; more on this as we get closer to that window.
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3 주 전
Gold Buyers Hold Ground as Gold Tests Critical Price Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 21, 2024
• Gold climbed above the 50-Day MA to $2,674 but faces key resistance levels, with potential consolidation or bearish pullback if strength wanes.
Gold busted through the 50-Day MA on Thursday, reaching a high of 2,674 before stalling the ascent. That high was around potential resistance of the 20-Day MA at 2,677. A daily close above the 50-Day line at 2,661 will indicate greater strength than a close below it. The 20-Day line may continue to act as resistance but there are also a couple identified price levels a little higher at 2,686 and 2,692.
If gold can continue to rally, a daily close above the 20-Day line would provide the next indication of strength, followed by a daily close above 2,692. Until there is a daily close above last week’s high of 2,686, however, the expectation remains for an eventual bearish pullback once significant resistance is encountered.
Testing Resistance Around 20-Day MA
The 20-Day MA had done a good job of defining trend support before the breakdown, since it was reclaimed on August 8. Notice that last week’s breakdown fell through the 20-Day MA at the same time as the internal uptrend line was broken to the downside. Further weakness was indicated on the drop below the 50-Day MA and then the next lower uptrend line. Therefore, a pullback looks likely once prior support levels are tested as resistance. That could occur at the levels noted above, including the 2,710-swing high. For now, the buyers remain in charge.
Near-term Support at 2,648
A decline below today’s high of 2,648 signal weakness and the possibility of a deeper pullback. The prior swing low, also a monthly low, looks to be the first key support level that may be tested on the way down. Both the low from Wednesday at 2,619 and from Tuesday at 2,610 can also be watched for signs of further weakness or potential support that is above the swing low.
Inside Week Likely
Gold will likely end this week with an inside week pattern. Until gold either drops through the bottom of the week at 2,564 or the top, currently at 2,674 (week not over), it will remain inside the week’s range and therefore choppy trading and consolidation on the shorter daily time frame may dominate for a little while. As noted previously, this week’s low bounced right off a test of the support at the 20-Week MA, while last week’s low closed at support of the moving average last week after a minor dip below the line.
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3 주 전
Gold Continues to Look Strong on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | November 21, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of strength in the early hours of Thursday, as the geopolitical issues only get worse in Ukraine, as well as many other places in the world. Furthermore, there are a lot of central banks around the world that continue to collect gold.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, as it looks like we have a scenario where breaking above the 50 day EMA has perhaps brought in more buyers. The market is more likely than not to continue to favor upward movement towards the $2,800 level. The $2,800 level of course is an area where we had pulled back from previously, so I think that has a lot to do with perhaps topping out the market. If we can get above there, then that opens up the $3,000 level. Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to see plenty of support near the $2,600 level. And at this point in time, I think there are plenty of reasons for gold to go higher, even beyond the chart.
While the chart does show a lot of momentum, the reality is that the geopolitics are getting worse in Ukraine, not better. Because of this, some asset managers will put a little bit more money into the gold market in order to protect wealth. Furthermore, we also have central banks around the world doing everything they can to accumulate gold, mainly China, Russia, Indonesia, India, and several other big ones, especially in that part of the world. So, I think gold has quite a bit of momentum and it is a buy on the dip market. I just don’t have any interest whatsoever in trying to get short of this market anytime soon, as it is so strong.
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