NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 옵션

So in 6 weeks you think we will be at $50? Let's revisit that issue in June. It is in a downtrend at the moment, but $50 may be a stretch.

Analysts' estimates keep dropping for NVDA. Already estimates were low for the very lofty market cap. But they are dropping estimates by about 10% per month. NVDA business model appears to be broken. I would not be surprised to see NVDA share price below $50 per share by mid-2025. Beware.

All of that is true and NVDA is a great company.

However, its down nearly 25% for the year and we are in the middle of April.

It has consistently trended down in 2025. This is not about fundamentals, but the overall market response to the tariffs, wars and other concerns.

That being said, its a great stock and will bounce back, when the fears subside.

Below is a summary of the Magnificent 7’s performance, focusing on revenue growth, earnings growth, and forward P/E ratios, based on available data for 2024 and earlier quarters. Since exact quarterly breakdowns for all eight quarters are not fully detailed, I’ll use annual 2024 data, quarterly highlights, and trends where available.
Revenue Growth (2024 Full Year, unless specified):
NVIDIA: 114% (Q4 2024: $39.3B, up 78% YoY).

Meta: 22% (ad revenue-driven).

Microsoft: ~17% (Q3 2024, fiscal year ends June).

Alphabet: ~12-15% (strong Q3/Q4 2024).

Amazon: ~10-12% (Q4 2024: 12.8% for Mag-7 aggregate).

Apple: ~5% (Q3 2024 guidance).

Tesla: 1% (weak due to EV competition).

Earnings Growth (Q4 2024 and Recent Quarters):
NVIDIA: Led Mag-7 for six quarters, contributing ~73% of Mag-7 earnings growth in Q4 2024. GAAP EPS $2.94 (TTM, up 147% YoY).

Amazon: Strong Q4 2024, driven by AWS and AI.

Alphabet: Top 5 S&P 500 earnings contributor in Q3/Q4 2024.

Meta: Robust Q4 2024, high margins (>25%).

Microsoft: Steady, AI-driven (Azure) growth.

Apple: 16% YoY earnings growth in Q4 2023, slower in 2024.

Tesla: Declines (-33% operating profits Q2 2024, -40% Q4 2023).

Forward P/E Ratios (Estimated as of Q1 2025):
NVIDIA: 23.

Alphabet: ~20-25 (lowest, ~1.5x PEG in Jan 2024).

Meta: ~25-30.

Amazon: ~40-50 (down from 312x in 2023 due to earnings growth).

Microsoft: ~30-35.

Apple: ~30-35.

Tesla: ~80-100 (high due to low earnings, ~86x in 2023).

Mag-7 aggregate: 28.3x (vs. S&P 500 at 21.8x).

PEG Ratios (Jan 2024, where available):
Alphabet: 1.5x (lowest).

NVIDIA: 1.6x (likely improved with lower P/E and high growth).

Tesla: 1.8x (33% EPS growth projected 2024-2028).

Mag-7 average: 1.68 (Q3 2023).

Profit Margins (2024):
NVIDIA: 55.8% (gross 73%, operating 61%).

Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet: >25%.

Apple: High, but not quantified here.

Amazon: Lower, due to high costs.

Tesla: Lowest, impacted by price cuts.

Step 2: Analysis of Trends (Q1 2023–Q4 2024)
NVIDIA: Revenue surged 114% in 2024 ($130.5B), with Q4 2024 at $39.3B (up 78% YoY). EPS grew 147% YoY, driven by AI chip demand (90% margins). Forward P/E of 23 is attractive given growth, down from ~250x in 2023.

Alphabet: Consistent 12-15% revenue growth, low P/E (~20-25x), and PEG (1.5x) suggest value. Strong in search, YouTube, and cloud.

Meta: 22% revenue growth, high margins, and P/E ~25-30x. AI and ad revenue are key drivers.

Amazon: 10-12% growth, with AWS and AI boosting Q4 2024. Higher P/E (~40-50x) reflects growth expectations but lower margins.

Microsoft: 17% revenue growth, AI (Azure) strength, P/E ~30-35x. Stable but less explosive than NVIDIA.

Apple: 5% revenue growth, high margins, P/E ~30-35x. Growth slowed, tied to iPhone and Apple Intelligence.

Tesla: 1% revenue growth, earnings declines, and high P/E (~80-100x). Long-term EV/AI potential but current weakness.

Step 3: Best Buy (Question A)
The best buy balances valuation (low P/E, PEG), growth (revenue/earnings), and risk (fundamentals, market position).
NVIDIA:
Pros: 114% revenue growth, 147% EPS growth, 55.8% margins, forward P/E 23 (lowest among Mag-7), PEG ~1.6x. AI chip dominance (90% share) and Blackwell platform demand are strong.

Cons: Volatility (beta 1.96), export restrictions ($5.5B Q1 2025 charge), and potential AI spending slowdown.

Why Strong: P/E of 23 is compelling for its growth rate, making it undervalued relative to peers.

Alphabet:
Pros: P/E ~20-25x, PEG 1.5x, 12-15% growth, diversified revenue, and high cash flows. Analyst optimism (high StarMine ARM score).

Cons: Regulatory risks (antitrust) and AI competition.

Why Strong: Lowest valuation with solid growth, but less upside than NVIDIA.

Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple: Offer growth but higher P/E ratios (25-50x) and slower growth (5-22%) than NVIDIA. Amazon’s margins and Apple’s slow growth are concerns.

Tesla: High P/E (~80-100x), 1% growth, and earnings declines make it the least attractive.

Best Buy: NVIDIA. Its forward P/E of 23, combined with 114% revenue growth and 147% EPS growth, offers the best value-growth mix. Alphabet is a close second for its lower P/E and stability, but NVIDIA’s upside is unmatched.

A nice play under the current circumstances.

NVDA $97 to $94 support exit NVD and enter NVDL ... Chief Executive Jensen Huang visited Beijing on Thursday to meet with company clients and government officials....

The Chinese government controls everything it owns I would think, but there are I am sure some companies that are both state and privately owned. But what that means, I have no idea. LOL

Just curious, you think China can't get control of something they already own?

Wolfe Research Adjusts Price Target on NVIDIA to $150 From $180

Wow that is a bold prediction, but not bet worthy for me. LOL

25.00 within one year, lets bet 1.00

Nice day

Jensen, it's time to retire. One should be wary of how close China is to actually entering Taiwan these Days... Then, no more restrictions nonsense talk, and to think, its actually part of China already?

I'm coming, faster than you think!

HMM

Thanks too 😊

No big deal.

But there’s been several times where people here have claimed things as factual, when it’s based on nothing but rumors and second/third hand info.

Thanks.

My bad if they didn't say it as I sold some when I heard that. So I fooled myself LOL

I don't see it anywhere I agree but I know they said it, but maybe they said it in jest, but i heard it, so sorry if you think I am TRYING to start a rumor

They said it was an accounting issue, not sure of the time but in the afternoon....I DO NOT LIE EVER Go replay the day if you can

100% agree that the Fed kept rates too low for too long...and then lowered them again right before the election, putting their hand on the scale.

Lets hope that all of those involved in decision making, (Fed and the admin) don't crash this economy. There is definitely risk with what is going on.

They said EXACTLY WHAT over on CNBC? And WHEN??

They said it on CNBC. I don't ever start rumors.

That's fine. He can be the scapegoat if things fail then, because we all know that the lessening of interest can do nothing but help the market. This administration has no issue with pointing the finger, that's for sure.

Not that I'm a fan of lowering interest rates and adding fire to an already overheated stock market (that has already been done previously). The fed kept rates too low too long IMO. But that's just my opinion.

No, we all knew the market was overvalued and that it was due for a correction. It's been talked about right here on this very board. Did we need it all at once? God no. But now it is happening. The only thing to do now is to hope that it doesn't get out of hand.

In my opinion, the current Fed, with Powell as the Chair, will work against this administration. They want to install as many obstacles as they can to success.

They believe they can reign in the policies of the current administration or get them to change direction, by sending the markets down.

No

There's no "accounting issue" for NVDA!

Or are you trying to start another rumor about NVDA? Any "accounting" issue rumors were all put to bed a long time back.

Exactly. It is Powell opening his fat YAP that is driving down the market now.

I think it was the NY Fed rep that said that interest rates might even be HIKED, if the fed sees more inflation. Now THAT would be a devastating thing on the markets indeed.

Powell sends markets and NVDA down by indicating the Fed will hold off on rate cuts, to see how the tariffs play out.

The Fed is not a friend to this administration. The deep state strikes again!

An accounting issue?

I would think.

Yes, it could possibly impact this quarter or next quarter.

I welcome all buying opportunities, nothing wrong with the company. Massive overreaction to something that will 100% benifit America! 

BofA drops NVDA Price Target to $160 From $200

NEW LOWS COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 50 BUCKS IS TARGET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHIP MAKING IS NOW IN A PARALIZED ZONE OF NOT KNOWING WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BOGUS MANUFACTURING IN THE US TALK!!!!!! NO ONE IS GOING TO BUILD HERE JUST TALK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHINA WILL GAIN CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!! MUAHHAHAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!! DOW 30K TO RESET BUMPY RIDE IS COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BLAHHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok thanks

Explained in my analysis

Agree, but maybe when earnings come out?

Typical market over reaction to a scenario that will have little to no impact on NVDA, longterm.

All that being said, and there was a lot there, then the hope is that we get a quick upturn today on buying by NVDA stalwarts. It would be nice to get into the mid teens by end of week. 

Chat GPT4.o is very very smart. Look what it says about the evolution of AI.
https://markets.financialcontent.com/1discountbrokerage/article/accwirecq-2025-4-16-chatgpt4o-deepseek-copilot-validate-rltrs-reel-intelligence-ris-potential-advantages-over-all-ais-as-smarter-more-efficient-less-costly-and-better-on-the-environment

1y Target Est $166.33 (Yahoo)

Where did you get $300 target price? Yahoo has it at $166.

Why the $5.5 Billion Charge Should Not Significantly Impact Stock Price
1. One-Time, Non-Recurring Charge:
o The $5.5 billion charge for H20 inventory, purchase commitments, and reserves due to U.S. export restrictions to China is a one-time expense in Q1 2026 (ending April 27, 2025). It equates to 5.7% of NVIDIA’s fiscal 2025 revenue ($96 billion) or 14% of Q4 2025 revenue ($39.3 billion).
o Investors typically overlook one-time charges for growth companies, focusing on recurring revenue and future earnings. NVIDIA’s history of beating forecasts (e.g., Q1 2025 revenue of $26 billion vs. $24.7 billion expected) and navigating prior China restrictions (e.g., launching H20 after the 2022 H100/A100 ban) supports its ability to absorb this hit without long-term damage.
2. Limited Impact on Core Business:
o NVIDIA’s growth is driven by its Data Center segment, which generated $22.6 billion in Q1 2025 (87% of revenue) and grew 112% year-over-year in Q3 2025. The H20 chip, tailored for China to comply with earlier restrictions, is less critical than NVIDIA’s flagship H100, H200, and Blackwell GPUs, which power global AI workloads and are unaffected by the ban.
o China’s revenue share has fallen from 26% in 2022 to ~13% in fiscal 2025 ($17.11 billion). The $5.5 billion charge is less than a quarter of NVIDIA’s annual China revenue, a manageable loss within one market. Global demand from hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon) and emerging sectors like automotive AI (e.g., BYD, Lucid) offsets this setback.
3. Temporary Market Reaction:
o The 6% stock drop after the April 15, 2025, announcement (from ~$113 to $106) reflects short-term sentiment, but NVIDIA’s stock has consistently recovered from such dips. For example, it gained 58% since Q4 2024 earnings and 12% after Q1 2025 earnings despite earlier China curbs. At $106, the stock is arguably oversold, presenting a buying opportunity.
o Analysts like Bernstein suggest the H20 ban has limited strategic impact, as Chinese alternatives (e.g., Huawei’s Ascend 910B) may already outcompete the H20, reducing NVIDIA’s reliance on that product in China.
4. Financial Resilience:
o NVIDIA’s gross margins (79% in Q1 2025, ~75% in Q3 2025) and strong cash flow (supported by $26 billion in Q1 2025 revenue) provide ample cushion to absorb the charge. Its current ratio of 4.44 and $500 billion U.S. AI supercomputer investment signal financial strength.
o The charge may reduce Q1 2026 net income by ~25% (based on Q3 2025’s $19.3 billion), but this is a single-quarter impact. NVIDIA’s ability to redirect resources to high-growth areas like Blackwell GPUs and Spectrum X ethernet ensures sustained momentum.
Why NVIDIA’s Stock is Severely Underpriced at $106
At $106, NVIDIA’s market cap is approximately $2.65 trillion (25 billion shares outstanding). This valuation is significantly undervalued for a company with NVIDIA’s growth, market dominance, and AI leadership. Here’s why:
1. Exceptional Growth Profile:
o NVIDIA’s revenue surged from $7.64 billion in fiscal 2021 to $96 billion in fiscal 2025, a 12.5x increase, driven by the AI boom. Recent quarters show 262% growth in Q1 2025, 122% in Q2, and 97% in Q3. Analysts project ~$43 billion for Q1 2026 (65% growth from $26 billion in Q1 2025), per X posts.
o A 65–100% annual growth rate is unprecedented for a $2.65 trillion company, outpacing large-cap tech peers like Microsoft (15% growth) or Apple (5%). This growth suggests NVIDIA’s valuation has not fully reflected its earnings potential.
2. AI Market Leadership:
o NVIDIA commands an 80–90% share of the AI GPU market, with its Data Center segment growing 112% in Q3 2025. The shift to “AI factories” (per CEO Jensen Huang) drives demand for its H100, H200, and Blackwell GPUs, which are sold out for 2025.
o New revenue streams, such as automotive AI ($300 million in Q3 2025, up 50%) and networking (Spectrum X ethernet, projected at $10 billion annually), diversify its portfolio. The $500 billion U.S. AI supercomputer investment and domestic chip manufacturing further reduce China reliance and align with U.S. policy.
3. Undervalued Metrics:
o Forward P/E: Fiscal 2026 EPS is estimated at $5.50 (based on analyst consensus and Q3 2025’s $0.81 EPS). At $106, NVIDIA’s forward P/E is ~19.3x ($106 / $5.50), exceptionally low for a company growing at 65%. Compare this to AMD (40x, 20% growth) or TSMC (~30x, 25% growth).
o PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio is ~0.3 (19.3 / 65%), well below 1.0, indicating severe undervaluation. Historical growth stocks like Amazon traded at 50–100x P/E during high-growth phases.
o P/S Ratio: On $160 billion projected fiscal 2026 revenue, the P/S ratio at $106 is ~16.6x ($2.65 trillion / $160 billion). This is reasonable for 66% growth and 75% margins, compared to Salesforce’s 7x P/S with 10% growth.
o Free Cash Flow: NVIDIA’s ~$30 billion annual FCF yields ~1.1% at $106, attractive for a growth company reinvesting in R&D and infrastructure.
4. Market Mispricing AI Potential:
o The AI market is projected to grow at a 37% CAGR through 2030, with GPU demand exceeding supply. NVIDIA’s Blackwell GPUs and projects like Stargate (using Spectrum X ethernet) position it as the backbone of AI infrastructure, yet the stock’s $106 price reflects caution over China risks or AI bubble fears.
o NVIDIA’s consistent execution (e.g., Q3 2025 revenue of $35.1 billion vs. $32.7 billion expected) and diversified growth drivers suggest the market underestimates its role in a $1 trillion AI market by 2030.
Justifying a $300 Stock Price Target by April 16, 2026
A $300 stock price implies a market cap of $7.5 trillion ($300 x 25 billion shares), a 183% increase from $106. This is achievable given NVIDIA’s growth, historical stock performance, and AI tailwinds. Here’s the justification:
1. Earnings Projections:
o Fiscal 2026: Analysts project ~$160 billion in revenue (66% growth from $96 billion) and EPS of ~$5.50, assuming 75% margins and the $5.5 billion charge’s one-time impact in Q1. This is conservative given Q1 2026’s $43 billion forecast (65% growth).
o Fiscal 2027 (Mid-2026): Assuming 50% revenue growth (down from 65–100% trends) to $240 billion and EPS of ~$8.00 (maintaining margins), NVIDIA’s earnings power by April 2026 supports a higher valuation.
2. Valuation Multiples:
o Forward P/E: Apply a 37.5x P/E to a mid-2026 EPS of $8.00, yielding $300 (37.5 x $8.00). A 37.5x multiple is justified for 50–65% growth, compared to Microsoft’s 30–40x with 15% growth or Amazon’s 50x historically.
o PEG Ratio: At $300, the P/E on fiscal 2026 EPS ($5.50) is 54.5x ($300 / $5.50), implying a PEG of ~0.84 (54.5 / 65%), still undervalued for NVIDIA’s growth.
o P/S Ratio: On $160 billion fiscal 2026 revenue, a $7.5 trillion market cap implies a P/S of 47x, high but warranted by 66% growth and 75% margins, compared to peers like Snowflake (15x P/S, 20% growth).
o From Current Price: At $106, the forward P/E of 19.3x is anomalously low. A rerating to 37.5x on $5.50 EPS yields ~$206 by fiscal 2026 end. By mid-2026, $8.00 EPS at 37.5x supports $300.
3. Catalysts for 183% Upside:
o Blackwell GPU Demand: Blackwell chips are projected to generate $50–60 billion in 2025, dwarfing the $5.5 billion charge. Strong Q2–Q4 2026 results will drive stock gains.
o Networking Growth: Spectrum X ethernet’s $10 billion annual run-rate and projects like Stargate will boost high-margin revenue.
o China Mitigation: NVIDIA may secure export licenses or develop new compliant chips, as with H20 post-2022. Even without China, global AI demand ensures growth.
o Earnings Beats: NVIDIA’s history of exceeding estimates (e.g., Q1 2025 revenue beat by $1.3 billion) and analyst upgrades (e.g., Bernstein’s “outperform”) will fuel sentiment.
o AI Market Rally: A broader AI stock rally, as seen in 2023 (NVIDIA up 239%), could push multiples higher.
4. Historical Precedent:
o NVIDIA’s stock rose 239% in 2023 and 127% in 2021 during AI-driven rallies. A 183% gain from $106 to $300 aligns with these periods, especially given the lower starting valuation (19.3x P/E vs. 50x in 2023).
o The stock’s 58% gain since Q4 2024 and 12% post-Q1 2025 earnings suggest momentum can accelerate with strong catalysts.
5. Risk Considerations:
o China: At 13% of revenue, further China losses are limited. NVIDIA’s U.S. manufacturing pivot and global focus mitigate geopolitical risks.
o Competition: AMD and Intel are growing, but NVIDIA’s 80–90% AI GPU share and CUDA ecosystem maintain its edge. Huawei’s impact is confined to China.
o Macro: A 50% growth assumption for 2027 accounts for economic slowdowns, and high margins buffer inflation or supply chain issues.
Conclusion
The $5.5 billion H20 charge is a minor, one-time hit (5.7% of fiscal 2025 revenue) that should not significantly impact NVIDIA’s stock price, as it does not affect core drivers like Blackwell GPUs or global AI demand. At $106, NVIDIA is severely underpriced, with a forward P/E of 19.3x and PEG of 0.3 for 65% growth, compared to AMD (40x P/E, 20% growth). A $300 target by April 16, 2026, implies a 183% upside, justified by a 37.5x P/E on mid-2026 EPS of $8.00 (50% growth to $240 billion revenue). Catalysts like Blackwell sales, networking growth, and earnings beats, combined with historical rallies (239% in 2023), support this target. The lower $106 base makes $300 more achievable, reinforcing NVIDIA’s undervaluation as the AI market leader.

NVIDIA tumbles after hours: U.S. limits chip exports to China...
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 NVIDIA tumbles after hours:

U.S. limits chip exports to China
? Nvidia hit with new license requirements
? Up to $5.5B in charges expected next quarter

$NVDA -5.60%



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DiscoverGold

Yes, this is tariff related.

Restrictions have been placed on the NVDA H2O chip, that is sold to China.

WTF?
In extended trading, shares of Nvidia dropped more than 4% after the chip giant said it will post a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to exporting its H20 graphics processing units to China and other nations.

What is that all about? NVDA is allowed to sell H 20 gpu’s to China. Are they not paying us? Is this tariff related?

Tencent , Bytedance and Alibaba placed $16 billion worth of orders for H 20 GPUs in first quarter

lol. At my age I try to do away with checks and balances……..just let’er rip😁

$NVDA Unusual $700M Dark Pool Mid-day Activity
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 $NVDA Unusual $700M Dark Pool Mid-day Activity.



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DiscoverGold

This MAJOR news! I like where NVIDIA is headed. I just bought shares.

Quantum Computing: Where We Are and Where We’re Headed | NVIDIA GTC 2025 Fireside Chat

The International Year of Quantum Global Industry Challenge Launch Webinar



Has price bottomed and OBV is turning higher.