Nukemtiltheyglow
17 시간 전
Thanks Ram; I couldn't respond, too busy working full-time again, trying to maintain two households. What some folks fail to understand is the "Cause and Effect" relationship. That's all I'm going to say, let them figure it out. Just like the Border issue, you turn a blind eye, you can see the end result.
Now unto something lighter, SuperBowl Sunday next Sunday, February 9th. Some folks don't like Kansas City, some don't like Philadelphia. May the winner go spoils and bragging rights. Should be a good game. New Orleans is always a favorite place, Mardi Gras is always a fun time of the year. People talk about it alot, never been myself, should be on my "Bucket List" though. I'll talk to the Missus about it.
GLTA
FlyFishingStocks
1 일 전
So gambling on the "come" trumps all TA strategies? Haha... Ever heard of Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Most earth shattering announcements are telegraphed on the chart (if you know what your looking for). The R-It announcement results were.
If an acquisition is imminent traders will be the first to push prices up in anticipation.
I'm entertained by those who proudly declare they are a fundamental investor. Yet, ironically, they are bag holders because they failed to act on those fundamental AMRN metrics - which suck! I've not read one post on this board over the past ten years that stated, "I got stopped out, metrics are too poor to get back in." Why is it that fundamental investors don't employ an exit strategy?
AMRN is not an attractive fundamental investment. .. unless you are simply swinging for the fence for that "trump all" moment in time. Anyone who says otherwise is a delusional gambler.
For their sake and yours, I hope this dormant volcano blows once again ...
I'll be the first to congratulate you.
Whalatane
1 일 전
FFS TA may work for some until there is an unexpected announcement ...major clinical trial fails or spectacularly succeeds .
DeepSeek comes out of nowhere and decimates NVDA when the market opens .
If NVS announce a bid for AMRN before the open on Monday ( as example , not predicting ) your TA analysis gets destroyed .
Having said that ...in trending markets I consider TA. Traders pay attention to over sold RSI readings , 50 day MA , descending or rising chart lines etc etc , but IMHO ....fundamental events like buy out announcements , trials stopped for serious adverse events etc ...trump all
JMO
Kiwi
Whalatane
1 일 전
JR. thx for the detailed analysis ...appreciated
NVS has always seemed to most logical BP to have any interest in acquiring AMRN .
They are based in the EU and their Leqvio for LDL cholesterol is starting to gain significant traction .
They of course are spending $ on follow up trials etc ..from this past weeks CC
Leqvio showed a steady trajectory, delivered 114% constant currency full year growth in the quarter, 83% growth versus prior year. We're really pleased that now in the U.S.
our growth is outpacing the overall advanced lipid lowering market. We have over 3,000 health systems ordering now Leqvio that represents 68% of the overall market volume. We have depth that's increasing, and I think we're getting better and better traction with the overall buy-and-bill comfort levels within cardiology practices. We see demand growth in all relevant channels.
Outside of the United States, we've seen robust growth as well. Leqvio is now registered in over 100 countries. We see solid uptake in markets such as Germany. And in China, our out-of-pocket growth really makes it one of the top ranked markets we have outside of the United States.. ( my emphasis )
We have an ongoing launch as well now in Japan. So looking ahead, we have a number of clinical stage readouts coming over the course of 2025, which will help, I think, round out the profile of Leqvio as we await the outcomes trials readouts in secondary prevention in 2026 and 2027.
They obvious know what it takes to get sales going in Germany
Leqvio is just 2 sub Q injections per year to significantly lower LDL cholesterol .
One at your annual physical and one 6 months later ......no need for Statins unless you have very elevated LDL cholesterol .
I'm trying to get Kaiser to prescribe it to me instead of Repatha ( which is sub Q every 2 wks ) .
WAC is now down to around $6,500 a yr .
The question is ...Is there a price Novartis would be interested ...?
Kiwi
JRoon71
2 일 전
Kiwi, I think we are at the point where US revenues are no longer supporting international growth. With U.S. revenue at about $100M a year (annualized run-rate, based on where Q4 is likely coming in at), and cost of good sold at around $63M, that leaves us with $37M in U.S. Gross Profit Margin. Overall Operating Expenses are around $150M. Obviously, some of that is attributable to overseas operations (which they do not break out). So we are losing $75-100M a year on the U.S. operation alone.
Q3 annualized saw Amarin as a whole, losing $100M/year (run rate). Changes in A/R, Inventory, and add-backs due to stock-based comp helped minimize cash burn. But those items can't continue indefinitely (A/R and Inventory specifically). So very soon (probably starting in Q4), the cash is going to start burning quickly, assuming that revenues in Europe don't heat up exponentially (hint: they won't). We won't see anything from China, Italy, or anywhere else, other than UK, Spain, and a few of our RoW partners (Canada, etc.) contributing a few million. Revenues outside of U.S. in Q4 will likely be $5-7M more than Q3. After COGS, that leaves maybe $2-3M in Gross Profit on the incremental revenues. That's just not going to move the needle.
Bottom line, they have squeezed as much from the lemon as they are going to get on the expense side. And the only way out of this now is to grow revenues. This is probably why they have not initiated the buyback (and possibly won't - or maybe just a nominal amount as a show of faith). If they are burning $25M+ per quarter in cash, it's going to go quickly now. I am hoping the ER CC is going to be very revealing in terms of their plan.
ramfan60
2 일 전
Agreed depending on the product..........in my industry, semiconductor test equipment industry...... mostly moved to China, Taiwan, etc not to lower price to the end user but to lower cost to the OEM....... if you use a global contract manufacturer, they typically have manufacturing in multiple countries throughout the world. Depending on your volumes, it doesn't take all that long to move your product manufacturing to another country. Globalism at work.
JRoon71
2 일 전
That's my point - if the price goes low enough, anyone would buy them. But then we get screwed.
But honestly, I think the lost patent, and the extreme resistance in Europe is probably scaring potential buyers away. If V was flying off the shelves, we could name our price.
It all goes back to the fact that they should have sold post-Reduce-it, before anyone knew how badly commercialization would fail. Amarin just blew it. But it probably would have done incredibly well in the hands of a BP. Hell, we flew to $600M revenue in the U.S. in just a few years.
JRoon71
2 일 전
RMB, if they want the best price possible, then being publicly traded DOES matter.
Most buyouts are in the 1.5x to 3x range. If we get delisted, the stock probably drops into the $0.30's.
What's a BP going to offer then? 10x?? 20x??
It's not like anyone is beating down our door to buy the company. There's no incentive for anyone to pay a huge premium at that point.
Amarin can't even sell its only product. What makes you think a BP wants to buy us? Sure, for $0.30, anyone will buy us. That's a rounding error on most BP's balance sheets.
JRoon71
2 일 전
Kiwi, May 19th is the date, but we need to be in compliance for 10 consecutive business days PRIOR to that date, which puts us around May 5th.
So we basically have 3 months to hit $1.
As some have alluded to, I think (hope) we will have a clearer picture after the ER CC. But at that point, we only have about TWO months to get in compliance.
I just feel like this waiting game, with no news, no communication, no PRs, no apparent effort, and no clear game plan, is clearly being done on purpose. They are consciously choosing NOT to make an effort to support the stock price. And you have to ask yourself why that is.
I still go back to the resignations of a new CEO and new CFO, and wonder the significance of that as well. The two guys in the room that know more than anyone else about what is going on.
SMH
Whalatane
2 일 전
Re You can reverse split this 1 for 10 and I guarantee the stock is sub $1.00 in 6 months
I'll take that bet ( against U ) . Co has to much cash on hand especially if it can operate breakeven ...for it to lose 80% of its value after a R/S in 6 mths .
By the way ...all a CAD patient like moi needs is Leqvivo ( see previous post ) and Vascepa . Difference is that NVS is funding extra trials to show / confirm Leqvio's risk reduction ..and AMRN isn't
Completed major Leqvio trials to date
Below is a list of key clinical trials conducted for Leqvio (inclisiran), a small interfering RNA (siRNA) therapy used to lower LDL cholesterol:
Phase III Trials
ORION-9:
Participants: 482 patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH).
Results: Reduced LDL-C by 48% compared to placebo at 17 months.
Design: Double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted across eight countries1.
ORION-10:
Participants: 1,561 patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).
Results: LDL-C reduction of 52% compared to placebo at 17 months.
Location: Conducted at 145 sites in the US1.
ORION-11:
Participants: 1,617 patients with ASCVD or ASCVD risk equivalents.
Results: LDL-C reduction of 50% compared to placebo at 17 months.
Location: Conducted across seven countries1.
V-MONO:
Participants: 350 patients at low or moderate ASCVD risk.
Results: Clinically meaningful LDL-C reduction compared to ezetimibe and placebo at day 150.
Design: Randomized, double-blind trial25.
Open-Label Extension Studies
ORION-3:
Extension of ORION-1 trial with 233 participants over four years.
Results: Maintained LDL-C reduction of ~47.5% at Day 210 and ~44.2% over four years with twice-yearly dosing1.
ORION-8:
Largest trial to date, with over 8,500 patient-years of exposure.
Results: Sustained LDL-C reduction (~50%) and consistent safety profile over six years4.
Kiwi
Whalatane
2 일 전
Well CBB. you always wanted a BP owner .
Here's what NVS has achieved with Inclisiran ( brand name Leqvio ) that they bt from Denner when he controlled MDCO
Leqvio® continued steady trajectory, delivering +114% cc FY growth
US: Growth outpacing advanced lipid-lowering market1,2
• 3,230 health systems, representing 68% of aLLT market volume, have ordered Leqvio®, with depth increasing +42% vs. PY
• Demand growth in all channels (ASOCs, hospitals, outpatient groups)
Ex-US: Robust growth in all markets
• Leqvionowregisteredin>100countries
• China out-of-pocket growth makes it the top-ranked market ex-US
Multiple Ph3 studies expected to be presented in 2025
• V-MONO:Superiority of Leqviovs.both placebo and ezetimibe inLDL-Creduction3
• V-INCEPTION:First study evaluating the effectiveness of Leqvio initiated in
real-world ASCVD population with ACS = 5 weeks prior to study screening
• ORION-13:Evaluating Leqvio in adolescents with HoFH, first completed study in pediatric program
Constant currencies (cc) is a non-IFRS measure. An explanation can be found on page 47 of the Condensed Financial Report. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to same period in PY. Novartis obtained global rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio under license / collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.
Sales evolution
USD m, % cc
FY USD 0.8bn +114% cc
Note they are doing real world studies with ACS less than 5 wks prior to screening .
At the time a lot pf people thought NVS over paid for Inclisiran ( Leqvivo ) ...amazing what a great BP can do when they get behind a drug
Kiwi
couldbebetter
2 일 전
Skipperdog, My fear is that Denner will reverse split,
wait for the drop, then have his Sarissa pick up shares
and after they get what they want they will initiate the
share buyback. Such a plan would give Denner the
most bang for the buck. "If" Denner does have an
actual plan to create value through either sales development,
a new formulation (for BP,) or a planned sale to a BP...My
guess is that he would initiate and complete a share buyback.
What disturbs me is the seeming disinterest in doing anything
that would support the share price or show a sign of AMRN
having a prosperous future. Amazing how Sarissa communicated
with shareholders when they wanted our votes, but now, nothing.
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