Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) 시세

Berkshire Hathaway bought another $409 Million in shares of Occidental Petroleum as the stock hits new multi-year lows
By: TrendSpider | December 20, 2024

• Buffett goes Christmas Shopping

Berkshire Hathaway bought another $409M in shares of Occidental Petroleum as the stock hits new multi-year lows.



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Berkshire Hathaway Currently Down Eight Consecutive Days, on Pace for Longest Losing Streak Since December 2018
By: Dow Jones Market Data | December 17, 2024

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRKB) is currently at $454.18, down $1.01 or 0.22%

• Would be lowest close since Nov. 5, 2024, when it closed at $445.06
• Currently down 12 of the past 13 days
• Currently down eight consecutive days; down 3.48% over this period
• Longest losing streak since Dec. 24, 2018, when it fell for eight straight trading days
• Worst eight day stretch since the eight days ending Nov. 4, 2024, when it fell 3.98%
• Down 5.97% month-to-date
• Up 27.34% year-to-date; on pace for best year since 2021, when it rose 28.95%
• Down 5.98% from its all-time closing high of $483.08 on Nov. 27, 2024
• Up 25.53% from 52 weeks ago (Dec. 19, 2023), when it closed at $361.80
• Down 5.98% from its 52-week closing high of $483.08 on Nov. 27, 2024
• Up 27.81% from its 52-week closing low of $355.35 on Dec. 20, 2023
• Traded as low as $452.06; lowest intraday level since Nov. 5, 2024, when it hit $441.10
• Down 0.69% at today's intraday low

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Bar, Yes, the idea of him buying the entire company (Boeing) would seem like a non starter for sure. Even a much smaller stake would seem unlikely. A Bloomberg article mentioned the possibilty, in part because of Boeing's strong 'brand', and the wide moat with commerical airliners and limited competition (only Airbus). But better to stick with insurance companies and the like, something like Chubb, which Berkshire has taken a stake in, although the market cap is $111 bil so would be a 'whopper' size acquisition. So not likely, but would be more up Buffett's alley.

I remember him saying that he overpaid for the big Precision Castparts acquisition, and would probably not have done it in retrospect. OXY has been the big one in recent years, although he agreed to remain under 50% ownership.

At 94 you have to wonder how long before he passes the baton off to Able and the others. Then it gets tempting to start spinning off portions of the conglomerate to 'maximize value', and then Berkshire splits up like GE did.



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"rumors Buffett might buy Boeing." There's zero chance BRK would even consider buying BA. Fixing profoundly troubled tech or manufacturing companies isn't what Buffett does. It's way outside his or Berkshire's "circle of competence." He seeks acquisitions that can be fixed quickly merely by pumping in mountains of cash. That's what Buffett can do, and without even consulting a board of directors. He can do it after thinking it over for perhaps one day. That's BRK's strength. In that situation they phone Warren first.

I'll point out too that Precision Castparts has had some rocky stretches.

More on Heico -

(Note - this article sounds like it was written by an AI bot, and the SpaceX comparison seems bogus, but here's the article anyway) -


>>> Warren Buffett Just Bought A $185,373,840 Stake in This Little-Known SpaceX Competitor


AG Plus

by Caleb Naysmith

Oct 31, 2024


https://www.agplusinc.com/news/story/29331446/warren-buffett-just-bought-a-185-373-840-stake-in-this-little-known-spacex-competitor#:~:text=Buffett's%20Berkshire%20Hathaway%20(BRK.,in%20the%20conglomerate's%20extensive%20portfolio.


In a surprising shift toward the aerospace and defense sector, legendary investor Warren Buffett has unveiled a new position in HEICO Corporation (HEI), an established aerodefense contractor and emerging competitor to Elon Musk's SpaceX. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) purchased 1,044,242 shares of HEICO, valued at approximately $185.37 million, marking a 0.07% weighting in the conglomerate's extensive portfolio.

HEICO Corporation: A Silent Giant in Aerospace

Founded in 1957, HEICO Corporation has quietly become a powerhouse in the aerospace, industrial, defense, and electronics industries. The company's commitment to innovation and cost-effective solutions has made its products indispensable components in large commercial, regional, business, and military aircraft. Beyond aviation, HEICO's technology extends to industrial turbines, targeting systems, missiles, and electro-optical devices.

Operating through its Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group, HEICO has positioned itself at the forefront of technological advancements, offering essential solutions across multiple industries. With a market capitalization of over $29 billion and a year-to-date stock price increase of 34.77%, the company has demonstrated robust growth and resilience in a competitive market.

Buffett's Strategic Entry into Aerospace

Buffett's investment in HEICO represents 0.75% of the company's outstanding shares, signaling a significant endorsement from one of the world's most respected investors. This move aligns with Buffett's long-standing strategy of investing in companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.

The aerospace and defense sector has been gaining investor attention due to increasing global security concerns and the resurgence of air travel post-pandemic. HEICO's diversified portfolio and consistent performance make it an attractive investment for Berkshire Hathaway, known for its cautious yet opportunistic investment approach.

Competing with SpaceX: The New Frontier

HEICO's expansion into areas overlapping with SpaceX's domain adds an intriguing layer to this investment. While SpaceX has been a pioneer in commercial space exploration and satellite deployment, HEICO's advancements in aerospace technology position it as a formidable competitor in certain segments.

HEICO's expertise in electro-optical devices and missile components could play a pivotal role in the burgeoning space defense sector. As nations and private entities race to establish a foothold in space, companies like HEICO are essential in providing the technology and components that make these endeavors possible.

Buffett's investment could be seen as a strategic move to capitalize on the growing opportunities in space-related industries without directly investing in private companies like SpaceX. By backing HEICO, Buffett gains exposure to the sector's potential upside while relying on a company with a proven track record and established market presence.

Other Notable Moves by Buffett

In addition to the HEICO investment, Buffett's recent portfolio adjustments reflect a mix of consolidation and strategic diversification:

New Positions: Berkshire Hathaway acquired a 1.45% stake in Ulta Beauty (ULTA), signaling confidence in the retail beauty sector.

Exits: The conglomerate sold its entire holdings in Snowflake (SNOW) and Paramount Global (PARA). Both companies have faced significant stock declines this year, with Snowflake down 42% and Paramount down 25% year-to-date.

Adjustments: Buffett trimmed 50% of his stake in Apple (AAPL) and reduced his position in Capital One (COF) by 21.27%. Conversely, he increased his holdings in Occidental Petroleum (OXY) by 2.93%, now owning 27.86% of the company, highlighting a bullish stance on the energy sector.

Implications for Investors

Buffett's investment in HEICO underscores a growing interest in the aerospace and defense industries, particularly companies that stand to benefit from increased demand for advanced technology in both commercial and defense applications. His move may prompt investors to re-evaluate the sector's potential, especially as global dynamics shift toward heightened security and technological innovation.

The indirect competition with SpaceX adds a compelling narrative to HEICO's growth prospects. While SpaceX dominates headlines with ambitious projects like Mars colonization and satellite internet services, HEICO's steady advancements in aerospace technology represent a more understated but equally significant contribution to the industry's evolution.

Conclusion

Warren Buffett's new position in HEICO Corporation reflects a strategic investment in a company poised to capitalize on the expanding aerospace and defense sector. By aligning with HEICO, Buffett not only reinforces his investment philosophy of choosing fundamentally strong companies but also positions Berkshire Hathaway to benefit from the industry's future growth.

The move signifies confidence in HEICO's ability to compete in a landscape that includes formidable players like SpaceX. As the race for space and advanced aerospace technology accelerates, HEICO's role as a key component provider could yield substantial returns, validating Buffett's investment decision.

For investors, Buffett's latest moves offer insights into sectors that may offer growth opportunities amid market volatility. As always, his portfolio adjustments are closely watched indicators of potential shifts in market dynamics, making HEICO a company to watch in the coming years.

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Bar, In addition to Precision Castparts, Berkshire now also has some Heico, which is also in the broader Aerospace & Defense category. Fwiw, I've had Heico in my 'Best Long Term Stocks' portfolio for some time, based mainly on its nice 10-15 year chart. Berkshire's position isn't very large, so it might be a Weschler / Combs pick (?), but seems like a solid LT stock -


>>> Buffett Favorite Heico Reports Increased Revenue Despite Unit Sales Drop


Investopedia

by Bill McColl

August 27, 2024


https://www.investopedia.com/buffett-favorite-heico-reports-increased-revenue-despite-unit-sales-drop-8701903


Key Takeaways

Aircraft parts and electronics supplier Heico posted higher revenue despite a drop in sales at its Electronic Technologies Group unit. Fiscal third-quarter sales at Heico's Flight Support unit set a record high.

Investing guru Warren Buffett is a fan of Heico, adding the stock to his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the second quarter.

Shares of Warren Buffett-backed Heico (HEI) edged higher Tuesday after the aircraft parts and electronics supplier posted better-than-expected third-quarter profit despite declining Electronic Technologies Group sales.

Heico reported that fiscal 2024 third-quarter revenue rose 37% year-over-year to a record $992.2 million, a tick below analysts' consensus estimate of $992.7 million compiled by Visible Alpha. Earnings per share (EPS) of 97 cents came in above forecasts of 91 cents.

Sales in the Electronic Technologies Group declined 1% to $322.1 million. The company said the drop "principally reflects lower other electronics and medical products net sales." At the same time, Heico's Flight Support segment sales jumped 68% to an all-time high of $681.6 million.

Acquisitions Credited With Boosting Results

Heico Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Laurans Mendelson said that along with gains in the Flight Support group, the company's latest results were boosted by "strong contributions from our fiscal 2023 and 2024 acquisitions."

Heico shares, which hit a record-high $258.84 on Aug. 15, edged higher to $246.70 as of 1:15 p.m. ET Tuesday. They are up about 38% this year.

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👍. Agreed. I think he let some of the youngins pick to test their competency.

Bar, Boeing has the new CEO, and things will ultimately be turned around, but it looks like a long slog. There were some rumors that Buffett might conceivably buy Boeing, but that seems unlikely. Berkshire has Precision Castparts, a supplier to Boeing, but best to stay out of the aviation industry imo, other than maybe in the defense related areas since those companies have quasi monopolies. My dad was an aero engineer and project manager with GE when they had a space division, and back then Boeing was a stellar company, the absolute best. They'll get back to that level again, but will take time and a total re-dedication to quality.


>>> Boeing’s turnaround was always going to be hard. The failed union vote just made it even tougher


CNN

by Chris Isidore, Vanessa Yurkevich

October 24, 2024


https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/24/business/boeing-strike-offer/index.html


Problems at Boeing go back years, if not decades. And they just got a lot harder to fix.

In addition to the spate of safety incidents that has undermined the company’s public image, raised worries about quality, sparked numerous investigations and led to a shakeup of executives — including a brand new CEO — the aircraft manufacturer is battling a costly and lengthy strike at its Washington state factories.

Members of the International Association of Machinists just rejected Boeing’s offer to return to work after a bruising six weeks of strike action.

The strike is costing the company around $1 billion a month, according to an estimate from Standard & Poor’s.

Boeing this week reported a $6 billion third-quarter loss, one of the largest quarterly losses in the company’s history.

Boeing also warned investors that losses will continue for at least another year.

New CEO Kelly Ortberg said ending the strike — which has brought Boeing’s commercial airplane production to a near halt — was a top priority and a key to fixing its financial problems.

But with 64% of IAM members voting no on the company’s latest offer, getting a once-great American company back on track appears harder than ever.

Emphasis on profits proves costly

Problems with the quality and safety of Boeing’s planes have been well documented over the past five years. Numerous company whistleblowers and outside analysts say those problems came from Boeing cutting corners and putting speed of production ahead of quality and safety.

Now it appears that demands the company made during good financial times that its largest union forfeit a pension plan or risk losing their jobs is spurring backlash from employees and fueling a longer, costly strike.

The offer rejected in Wednesday’s union vote would have provided striking workers with an immediate 12% wage increase, another 23 percentage points of wage hikes over the next four years, a $7,000 bonus upon ratification and improved contributions to their 401(k) plans, as well as some job security guarantees.

But it did not restore the traditional pension plan that union members at the company lost 10 years ago, back when the company was threatening to build new nonunion factories to handle much of their future work. That loss, from when the company was doing well financially but wanted even more from its workers, still feeds an anger that was apparent in the vote.

“This membership has gone through a lot,” Jon Holden, president of the IAM’s largest local at Boeing and its chief negotiator, said at a press conference late Wednesday just after the vote was announced. “There are some deep wounds that were (caused by) some takeaways and concessions, threats of job loss. Our members haven’t forgotten that.”

Why traditional pension plans matter

Traditional pensions are what’s known as defined benefit plans. They pay a set amount every month to retirees or their spouse as long as they live.

Boeing union members are angry they lost their pension plan. They’re not likely to get it back

If the assets in the plan lose value due to the market or other problems, it’s up to the company to fill the gap. A 401(k) plan, known as a defined contribution plan, puts the investment risk on the retiree. Retirees can even outlive their assets.

The desire to shift risk onto employees and away from a company’s bottom line has led most private sector defined benefit plans to vanish over the last 45 years. Defined benefit plans are only available to about 8% of workers at US businesses today, according to data from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, down from 39% in 1980.

Traditional pension plans are “one of the hallmarks of retirement security,” Holden said Wednesday night. “It wasn’t right to take it away. It’s a righteous fight to try to achieve it back.”

And the loss of the pensions was one of the main things that rank-and-file members pointed to when explaining why they voted no.

“I would love to have my pension back. I’m bitter about it. We’re all bitter about it,” Nataleen Anderson, a 17-year Boeing employee, told CNN affiliate KIRO in Seattle. “It felt like, well, they stabbed us. I was too far into my career when they took it to be able to build a good 401(k). I have a son here too. I want him to have something when he leaves.”

Tough road to win back pensions

But no union that has lost a traditional pension plan has ever been successful in negotiating a return of the plan. The United Auto Workers union also lost the plans for workers hired at General Motors, Ford and what was then known as Chrysler since 2007.

When it went on strike against GM, Ford and Chrysler successor Stellantis a year ago, one of its demands was a return of those pension plans. But while it won record contracts from all three automakers, it did not win back the pensions. In a press conference during the strike Ford CFO John Lawler called the traditional pension plans being sought by the union “a plan of the past.”

Those three auto companies were reporting record profits. Boeing, however, has reported core operating losses of $39.3 billion since 2019, after two fatal crashes of its 737 Max caused a 20-month grounding of its best selling plane and a losses in almost every quarter since then.

Boeing flatly ruled out a return of the pension plans in a statement last week ahead of the offer that the union members just rejected.

“There is no scenario where the company reactivates a defined-benefit pension for this or any other population,” said the company on October 15. “They’re prohibitively expensive and that’s why virtually all private employers have transitioned away from them to defined-contribution plans.”

Is there a solution?

Holden wouldn’t rule out reaching a deal that doesn’t include a traditional pension plan, saying the company is open to try a hybrid plan that provides some kind of defined benefit for members. But he said so far in negotiations Boeing hasn’t entertained any kind of return to a pension plan.

“If they’re not willing to give it, then we have to get something that replaces it,” he said. “So it does come down to wages, it comes down to 401(k) plans. It does come down to potential other defined benefit options, which we are willing to do. We’re going to put all cards on the table, be creative.”

”We are disappointed in the vote result,” Boeing told CNN in a Thursday statement.

On Wednesday before the vote results, Ortberg, who only assumed Boeing’s CEO job on August 8, said that ending the strike was “first and foremost on everybody’s mind.”

The company needs a fundamental change in its culture, he said when reporting third-quarter results but before the final tally of votes, and he again said he wants to “reset” the relationship between the union and the company. But he also admits that change in culture, which he didn’t spell out, will be difficult and take years to achieve.

“We’re clearly at a crossroads. The trust in our company is eroded,” he said. “We’re saddled with too much debt. We’ve had serious lapses in our performance across the company, which has disappointed many of our customers. We have employees who are thirsty to get back to the iconic company they know.”

That small Ulta holding is odd. One reason BRK has done so well is because Buffett trades so little and makes no effort to time the market. I do about the same and have holdings that go back many decades especially my index funds and some fabulous blue chips like Cintas and Rockwell Automation.

Most IHUB investors trade way too often, plus they buy junk. The small amount of Boeing I have is from a spinoff from Rockwell International over 20 years ago.

Generally, most investors would do far better if they held stocks longer. That's assuming they aren't buying the usual IHUB penny rubbish. There's plenty of academic research on that point.

Titan, ULTA was probably another Weschler / Combs pick. With Buffett now 94, the new guys will have some big shoes to fill. The jury is still out on how well their stock picking abilities stack up, but still early.



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GFP, Buffett said he believed the airlines (all of them) would require huge government bailouts due to covid and Trump wouldn't want to bail out four enterprises closely associated with Buffett. Thus he made a quick U-turn to help the airlines survive.

Have you noticed how well Boeing stock is doing over the past few week? My engineer son is still fully employed there. He should get an annual bonus but I I haven't heard either way. Personally, I still hold some BA shares and have a nice profit in them going back decades.

Luckily my son gets most of his stock compensation in index fund shares, not BA shares. Main thing is my son is still fully employed there.

His purchase/then sale in Ulta Beauty is confusing, but he's entitled to a mistake occasionally. ✌️

Bar, >> he bought those four major airline stocks at the beginning of covid in 2020 <<

Buffett actually was in those airline stocks for some time before Covid appeared (article below), but then sold them in April 2020, right near the bottom, so in retrospect not the greatest timing. But who knew that Covid would come along out of the blue, and also that the fast recovery in the airline stocks would happen? With Barrick Gold, that was a big surprise, but was most likely a Weschler / Combs pick, and they exited the position within a few quarters.


>>> Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway missed out on $5 billion by selling the 'big 4' airline stocks


Business Insider

Theron Mohamed

Mar 18, 2021


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-missed-5-billion-selling-airline-stocks-2021-3-1030224860


Berkshire Hathaway sold its stakes for about $4.5 billion after the pandemic struck.

The shares would have been worth around $9.4 billion today.


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway missed out on $5 billion by exiting the "big four" US airlines last April.

The famed investor's company previously owned between 8% and 11% of American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. Berkshire spent a total of $7 billion to $8 billion in building those stakes, which were worth over $10 billion at the end of 2019, SEC filings show.

However, shares in the four airline stocks plunged with the broader market when pandemic fears peaked last spring. Buffett and his team dumped their stakes in April, likely netting about $4.5 billion based on the quartet's average trading prices that month.

Berkshire probably stomached a loss of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion as a result. The airline stocks have bounced back since then, meaning the conglomerate's former positions would be worth a combined $9.4 billion today — more than double their value when Buffett sold them.

Buffett famously says that his "favorite holding period is forever," and advises investors to "be greedy when others are fearful." If he had practiced what he preached, Berkshire would have avoided a significant loss and notched a solid gain on its airline investments.

To be fair, Buffett decided to exit the airlines based on the information available to him last spring. He couldn't have known that multiple COVID-19 vaccines would be developed in record time, paving the way for travel to resume and the global economy to reopen this summer.

Moreover, Buffett invested in the airlines back in 2016 because he expected people would fly more in the coming years, the companies would at least maintain their value, and they would continue buying back shares.

When he sold in April, it was unclear how long it would take passenger numbers to recover from the pandemic. The carriers had accepted government bailouts that restricted buybacks, required them to hand stock warrants to the US government, and left them on the hook for billions of dollars in loan repayments. At least two were pursuing equity raises that would dilute existing shareholders as well.

"The world has changed for the airlines," Buffett said at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting last year. "The future is much less clear to me."

The investor may have missed a trick in hindsight, but it's hard to fault his thinking at the time.

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BTW, I follow IHUB for the scams which are tons of fun to follow. Years ago I'd contact the SEC to try to shut some of them down and was often successful in doing that. IHUB is mostly a sleazy casino. Many of the inhabitants are addicted to penny stock trading and have little interest in making a long term profit. They're here for the extremely rare 100-bagger. Very few have any real money. For such, penny stocks are just like a lottery or slots. I share Buffett's utter disdain for gambling (he's talked about that a few times)

Among pennyland regulars, divorces and even suicides have occured here and on similar boards. I never buy penny stocks, never buy anything with a market cap under about $10 billion. Never buy any unlisted stocks. I started following online stock boards around 1995. During the Dot Com crash of 2000, many players lost everything.

My portfolio of about 20 stocks and several funds is intended to survive in good times and bad. Hence, I hold rock solid stocks with strong finances like BRK.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
By: Zacks Investment Research | December 13, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.

Shares of this company have returned -1.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.3% change. The Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, to which Berkshire Hathaway B belongs, has lost 2.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Revisions to Earnings Estimates

Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Berkshire Hathaway B is expected to post earnings of $4.43 per share, indicating a change of +13% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +11.2% over the last 30 days.

The consensus earnings estimate of $19.78 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +15.1%. This estimate has changed +0.9% over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $19.97 indicates a change of +1% from what Berkshire Hathaway B is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.3%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Berkshire Hathaway B.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth Forecast

While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

In the case of Berkshire Hathaway B, the consensus sales estimate of $88.3 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -5.4%. The $364.82 billion and $375.35 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +0.1% and +2.9%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

Berkshire Hathaway B reported revenues of $93 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.2%. EPS of $4.68 for the same period compares with $4.96 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $96.62 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -3.75%. The EPS surprise was -2.7%.

Over the last four quarters, Berkshire Hathaway B surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.

Valuation

Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Berkshire Hathaway B is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom Line

The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Berkshire Hathaway B. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

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DiscoverGold

BRK Is a good first stock because Buffett (and Munger before him) would often explain their stock transactions. Why did he buy? Why did he sell? And sometimes, why did he do nothing. Occasionally Buffett makes puzzling moves such as when he bought those four major airline stocks at the beginning of covid in 2020. Buffett had lost money in airlines before and he often spoke out against that sector. Eventually he explained those airline trades for those who paid attention.

Similarly, observers were stunned when the boys picked up a small chunk of Barrick Gold which they sold a few months later for a nice profit. Munger especially often made fun of gold as an investment. That's one trade they never explained, as far as I know.

A curious investor can learn a lot from BRK which is why I follow their moves. I usually listen to broadcasts of the full May SHM.

So, for the educational value I regret not picking up some BRK shares for my kids. Note that my youngest son is a CPA with a university degree in finance as well.

I've held BRK.b for decades, apparently we're just beginners. Have a good day. 🍷

Is BRK a "beginner stock" (whatever that is) ?

Why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) Is the Best Beginner Stock to Invest in Now

"We recently published a list of 11 Best Beginner Stocks To Invest In Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B) stands against other best beginner stocks to invest in now."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-berkshire-hathaway-brk-b-190705540.html

Greg Abel would not likely leave in any spinoff, which I doubt would happen. He is designated to become CEO upon Warren's death.

"if BRK's shares drop after Warren passes, it will be a huge buying opportunity."

I don't think BRK would drop much. Plenty of analysts believe BRK will eventually begin paying dividends like the vast majority of profitable large cap stocks. The original first or second generation gang of friends and family from Omaha in the 1960s -- mostly billionaires now and in no need of dividends -- are mostly gone. Plenty of investors are like me in that they prefer tax managed stocks that favor capital gains and pay low or no dividends.

Dividends are some proof a company is doing well and because paying them regularly is a minor check on management. If BRK plummets on Buffett's death, shares could be propped up by initiating paying dividends or by spinning off assets, perhaps BHE, the energy division with Greg Abel at that helm.

As Buffett has often mentioned, a shareholder can always sell off some of his shares if cash is needed. That gives him, not the company, control of when income is received and taxes are payable.

Ted Weschler and Todd Combs were hand-picked by Warren to fill those shoes and work with the company under him to eventually take over the investments. They both love Omaha and have been immersed in the company. Todd Combs has actually served as CEA of some of BRK's operating companies. They were 2 of the top investment advisors around when Buffet brought them in. Warren has indicated he knows he is in the 4th quarter and will not be around much longer. I like to say I am on the back 9 but am in no hurry to get to the Clubhouse and like to play 14 and 15 over again.

Bottom line, IMO, is that if BRK's share price drops significantly after Warren passes, it will be a huge buying opportunity. The asset base and underlying intrinsic value are there.

With one "cure" I briefly followed, the "doctor" turned out to be a veterinarian... who specialized in COWs. He made a 7-figure salary. When the stock drops, which usually happens, you see lots of dumb averaging down. And down. and down...

And old geezer investors think they're doing something to cure disease when they buy those junk shares. Insiders and middle-men are making staggering salaries. Often 7 figures.

I don't tell my kids what stocks to buy but I explained to my one son how the drug testing can go on almost forever. There's always another round of testing.

And the boards are often wall to wall shills

Prudent Capitalist, That is amazing, imagine getting A shares for $1700. I remember when the B shares came out, and thinking that Buffett was getting too old, and he didn't like tech stocks, so I didn't invest in the B shares -- big mistake. He did finally take the tech plunge with the concentrated Apple position, which was a key source of gains over the past decade, but overall he's avoiding the Dot Com and Mag 7 crazes and still had phenomenal performance.

Fwiw, I'm still on the fence with Weschler and Combs, although it's still early. They have some gigantic shoes to fill, and it will be a sad day when the Oracle is gone. He's been a continuous presence for so many decades. Buffett gets most of the attention, but Munger was also a vital component to the magic that is Berkshire -







---

Bar, Yes, biotech is a sector to avoid for sure. But as a young investor it has all the 'get rich quick' qualities, plus the cutting edge science attraction. But a very dangerous road. Luckily I (almost) never took large positions. One exception was with Dendreon and their early cancer vaccine (Provenge). I made $40 K on that gambit, but managed to lose that plus more on other ill conceived wagers. I actually had some Amgen when it was still a small company. It jumped from 12 to 17 so I gleefully took the profits, but decades later I figured out that tiny investment would be worth several hundred thousands $ today.

Anyway, that was the school of hard knocks, although I still follow the sector loosely out of general interest. But the moral of the story for young investors is to just dollar cost average into the S+P 500 every month. Let it ride, and when retirement time comes you will be fine. Maybe own some individual conservative stocks with 1/4 of the total stock allocation, but put the rest in a broad index and let time do its magic.



---

I was talking on the phone to a client the day after the 87' crash and he mentioned he had just bought a share or 2 of Berkshire Hathaway for $1,700 per share. Yes, that is what a share was trading for the following morning after Black Monday. And, the B shares were not around then. You could buy 1 A share for $1,700 back then and those A shares are $705,815 right now here today.

LOLOL! "only stock I owned at the time (a doggy biotech)"

I still have never owned a biotech. I consider most of them to be obvious scams, with even scammier management.

GFP, what a treat to again hear the supremely polished and urbane Louis Rukeyser compared to the raspy Jim Cramer.

1987 was another time buying and holding an index fund would have worked brilliantly had they been popularized yet. Some time around then I began hearing John Bogle talking about his new creation, the index fund. I tracked a paper index fund for quite some time before I tip toed into investing in one, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund, symbol now VTI/VTSAX.

Within two or three years my stocks were outperforming 80% of investors, every quarter and outperforming perhaps 95% of investors over longer periods.

Bar, >> Oct 1987 <<

That was a wild few days, but as you said, it stabilized and quickly bounced back. I remember on the Friday night 'Wall Street Week' program, guest Marty Zweig said he thought a crash was imminent, and sure enough it happened on Monday. That was a wild / crazy period, but the only stock I owned at the time (a doggy biotech) actually went up that Monday. But not much of a victory since it had already been pummeled severely a few months before, lol.

Btw, here's that Wall Street Week episode, with Zweig's comment at 6:50 -




---

Once you have some money investing becomes vastly_easier. Munger talked about that often, the importance of getting your first $100,000. I love watching local penny addicts make the same mistakes over and over and over. They trade far too much, always chasing fads whether it be MJ or electric vehicles or whatever is hot at the moment (AI?). Always trying to hit home runs. where putting together bunt singles will eventually make most people wealthy. I'm always puzzled by why many IHUBers don't seem to improve even over many years. Buffett reads constantly and he had professor Ben Graham, a genius, as a guide. He also had his father, a broker, to steady his hand.

I've never met anyone who was born a great investor. The best ones had mentors who helped. Buffett and Munger flailed around at first but "the boys" lucked into Geico and the insurance business and they made very few dumb errors except at the very start. They tried everything, but they had the ability to learn and improve. Plus Buffett read constantly.

Ihubbers are the dumbest people on the planet, and many are gambling addicts whether they know it or not. What a lethal combination! They don't read... anything about stocks! I used to recommend articles on the DD board but no one read them, even when the author was highly respected and successful.

GFP, Thanks for that list of bear markets. I remember the early ones because I was starting off so even small, brief drawdowns were painful to me. But back then I had money in real estate, bonds and bank CDs. Stocks weren't all that important to me. I was single and had a secure job. I've always been well diversified, especially by the IHUB standards of slobbering penny gamblers.

I certainly remember the 2007 event with its Depression-like 57% fall. I recall Buffett coming on primetime TV urging people to stick with their stocks which I did. Above all I think I remember every minute of the excruciating but brief October 19 1987 when the Black Monday collapse when the Dow sold off 22% in a single day. I went out and bought a small TV to take into my office to see what the next few days would bring. If we were going into a real depression I sure wanted to watch it unfold.

Anyway, the market began recovering almost immediately.

Don't look back bar. You have had many home runs in investing, and we all have those that got away and ran without us. But spot on with the lesson. very Warren-esque

Art Cashin was a giant. an institution at the NYSE and on CNBC.

Bar, >> neither has ever suffered thru a bear market <<

We've had numerous bear markets (below), though the one in 2020 was very brief. The 2022 bear wasn't pleasant, but was predictable due to the Fed tightening. Also, during the 12 year period from 2000 - 2012 the S+P 500 essentially went nowhere, due to the Dot Com crash and then the 2008 crash. So not a great time to be LT buy / hold, but if you stuck with it everything finally recovered.

A logical approach for the very long term would be to hold the broad stock index and then don't follow it. Don't have stocks as a main hobby, and hardly follow them at all, check your brokerage account value maybe once or twice a year. That's what my dad did (he was an aero engineer like your son). He just wasn't interested in stocks, and his investments did great. But when stocks become a key hobby / interest, that's when the trouble starts, lol.


S&P 500 Bear Markets

August 1956
-21.6%

December 1961
-28%

February 1966
-22.2%

November 1968
-36.1%

January 1973
-48.2%

November 1980
-27.1%

August 1987
-33.5%

July 1990
-19.9%

March 2000
-49.1%

October 2007
-56.8%

February 2020
-33.9%

January 2022
-25%



https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652


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This is kinda amazing. I have two sons; one is an engineer for a large aircraft company, the other is a CPA for a Big Four accounting firm. I don't believe either has ever sold a single share of stock! Both kids were given S&P 500 index funds right after they were born and both have small amounts of blue chip stock and funds they've bought themselves. Both have also owned the red hot QQQ for years. So they've done VERY, well as you can imagine.

Have you ever heard of someone who has never sold even one share of stock? They are the exact opposite of you but I'm not sure that's ideal. LOLOL!

I'm a buy and hold guy, but my kids have taken that to the extreme. Of course, neither has ever suffered thru a bear market which makes holding a lot easier. Neither has kids.

Bar, >> sell them the moment a cloud appears <<

Yes, I have trouble holding after the profits have built up, and am compelled to grab the gains before they evaporate. With the choppy market, this has actually worked well in recent years, but is obviously not the ideal. What makes this active approach workable is that I still have some carry forward losses from the 'bad old days', so there are no cap gains taxes on the stock sales. But once those losses are gone it will be a different ballgame. I should have used your LT buy / hold approach from the beginning, but unfortunately in the early years got side tracked by the lure of fast riches.

That said, while holding on to an individual large cap stock forever may be the ideal, even Buffett can change ships relatively often when he thinks his analysis was wrong, or when situations change, etc. And even the S+P 500 has approx 30% in the Mag 7 bubble stocks, so finding a relatively 'safe' place in the stock market isn't easy. Even utilities have become hot potatoes in recent years, with the nuclear and AI power aspects bringing a casino like atmosphere to the sector.

Buffet and Peter Lynch both said that if the prospects of a 20% or 30% plunge would keep you up at night, you shouldn't be in stocks. Fwiw, my own max stock allocation is down to 15%, and I still worry, and have moved a lot into a 3 year Treasury ladder. Buffett himself reportedly has more in cash / T-bills than in stocks right now, so I assume he is also worried, but in a specific way, about valuations, etc. In contrast I'm just a nervous nellie in general, lol.




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LOL: "I also wonder why Ajit Jain has sold over half his stake in Berkshire? Seems ominous to me, but then I tend to worry about everything lol."

At least you understand yourself. You generally buy good, solid stocks and then you sell them the moment a cloud appears. BTW, notice how that crappy Else Baby food stock is disintegrating. I pegged that stock as rubbish on first glance a few years ago.

About 50 years ago, when I was very young and in college, I was uniquely positioned to buy CAT shares. An economics professor I had was also on Caterpillar's board (or some kind of major consultant for them) and thought well of the company. Anyway I decided instead, for some reason, to buy shares in Allis Chalmers, not CAT.

Lesson learned: Own the #1 company in a sector, not the #3 or #4. Allis Chalmers shut down in 1999. I had sold it long before that with a moderate loss. .

Art Cashin was truly a genius when it came to understanding the market. By the age of 23 he had become a member of the NYSE. A class act that will be sorely missed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/02/art-cashin-new-york-stock-exchange-fixture-for-decades-dies-at-age-83.html

Art Cashin, New York Stock Exchange fixture for decades, dies at age 83
Published Mon, Dec 2 20243:40 PM ESTUpdated Mon, Dec 2 20245:11 PM EST

Key Points
Art Cashin was UBS’ director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange and a man The Washington Post called “Wall Street’s version of Walter Cronkite.”
In the intensely competitive and often vicious world of stock market commentary, Cashin was that rarest of creatures: a man respected by all, bulls and bears, liberals and conservatives alike.

Bar, Yes, Deere is a high quality company. It does have a substantial amount of debt though, ~ 66 bil, so approx half of its market cap. The stock has been basically flat for the last 3-4 years, but recently broke out so could be ready to resume its long tem uptrend. Caterpillar is another nice one in the heavy machinery area. They have considerably less debt (38 bil), which is only 20% of the market cap. That's the one I owned, but with Deere's breakout it could be ready to play catch up. Reportedly there was a big surge in agro equipment sales back in 2022, but a relative dearth since then. But DE might be a good contrarian value play. I noticed that Buffett doesn't seem to mind companies with higher debt levels, so Deere might potentially become a new Berkshire holding again at some point (?)


>>> Deere Shares Surge on Optimism Farm Gloom Will Lift in 2025

CAT and DE were obvious buys after the infrastructure bill passed under Biden. Both have performed extremely well for me.

Yes. Howard used to be an elected official in Omaha (Douglas County Commissioner) but then moved east into Illinois and has also been involved with ADM over the years. John Deere (DE) has done very well as has Caterpillar (CAT). I have held CAT for many years and the position has grown considerably through automatic reinvestment of all dividends. CAT's share price has more than tripled over the past 10 years not counting the dividends, and I suspect DE has done just as well.

BTW, one new holding for me that's doing great is John Deere. It's risen nicely, plus I 've had several dividend increases. As I recall BRK owned some DE a few years ago and his son Howard was on the DE board at one time. Howard is the Buffett son who is a farmer in central Illinois.

Yes, valuations are high. Here's the 5 year history for share buybacks -

(figures rounded to 1 decimal place) -


Dec 2019 --- $ 2.0 bil
_________________
Mar 2020 --- $ 1.7 bil
June 2020 -- $ 5.0 bil
Sept 2020 -- $ 9.0 bil
Dec 2020 --- $ 9.0 bil
_________________
Mar 2021 --- $ 6.6 bil
June 2021 -- $ 6.0 bil
Sept 2021 -- $ 7.6 bil
Dec 2021 --- $ 6.9 bil
_________________
Mar 2022 --- $ 3.2 bil
June 2022 -- $ 1.0 bil
Sept 2022 -- $ 1.1 bil
Dec 2022 --- $ 2.6 bil
_________________
Mar 2023 --- $ 4.5 bil
June 2023 -- $ 1.4 bil
Sept 2023 -- $ 1.1 bil
Dec 2023 --- $ 2.2 bil
_________________
Mar 2024 --- $ 2.6 bil
June 2024 -- $ 0.4 bil
Sept 2024 -- zero
Dec 2024 --- ?
_________________


https://ycharts.com/companies/BRK.A/stock_buyback



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gfp: Given the significant appreciation in BRK's share price and with it recently trading near all-time highs, it is not at all surprising that the buybacks of BRK shares have ceased.

Bar, As I understand it, OXY is especially sensitive to the oil price, compared to other companies. I don't follow the sector too closely, but lots of countervailing factors go into the oil / gas price at any given time. Right now there's the economic slowdown in China, war related disruptions, OPEC members cheating, oil / gas coming back into favor with Trump, which increases demand, while 'drill baby drill' boosts supply, etc.

But another key aspect with OXY is it's leadership in 'carbon capture', which could eventually generate more revenue for OXY than it's oil / gas business. But with Trump / Reps in, carbon capture and climate change in general should be a much lower priority, at least for a period of years. We'll see what happens. Imo, 'carbon capture' is the most ridiculous concept ever, and anthropogenic climate change is being pushed for reasons unrelated to climate. But business is business, and if carbon capture and carbon credits are the future, Buffett's big OXY bet should pay off.

But either way, OXY will benefit from oil / gas retaining a more dominant role in energy, thanks to Trump. There's also another aspect to carbon capture related technology, since injecting CO2 into older gas reserves can boost their output (link below). So a plus to have OXY as the leader in this technology -


>>> CO2 enhanced gas recovery and sequestration in depleted gas reservoirs: A review

A very solid post. I own no Oil/gas stocks as you know. Considered buying OXY when he bought in to it. But didn't because I figured BRK's big OXY/CVX holding was enough,,, which was correct. I see that OXY is off 15% YTD. CVX was even worse.

Bar, Looking at the Japanese conglomerates, they've had pullbacks from their highs earlier in the year of between 15-35% (approx). The broader Japan ETF (EWJ) is only down ~4%, but over the past five years most of the 'Buffett 5' have blown away the broader Japan index by a wide margin. Not sure if Buffett has been buying more at these levels, but growing concerns over China may have him reluctant to add more exposure to Asia right now (?)

As we know, Buffett has been hoarding cash in a major way, with 8 consecutive quarters of net stock selling. The Chubb move has been doing great, OXY not so well but it's still early. But overall Buffett's been net selling and not reinvesting much back into stocks, or even purchasing Berkshire stock. I also wonder why Ajit Jain has sold over half his stake in Berkshire? Seems ominous to me, but then I tend to worry about everything lol.



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GFP, have you continued following Buffett's five Japanese trading houses? They were doing great for awhile but I haven't checked lately.

Have time to kill. Where I am it's bitter cold with a dusting of snow.

Posted by Bar on another board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175438625