GRG Greggs Plc

1 October 2024

GREGGS PLC

("Greggs" or the "Company")

Q3 TRADING UPDATE

Further good progress, full year outlook unchanged

Q3 highlights

* Like-for-like (LFL) company-managed shop sales performance against comparable period in 2023

Trading performance

Greggs continued to deliver good LFL sales growth over the third quarter of 2024, with total sales up 10.6% and LFL sales in company-managed shops rising by 5.0% when compared with the same period in 2023, with September the strongest month of the quarter.  Year-to-date total sales are up 12.7%, with LFL sales up 6.5%.  This growth was supported by menu development and further progress in extended trading hours and new digital channels.  Our new over-ice drinks range is already available in 800 shops, and we now expect to extend this to a total of 1,000 shops by the end of the year.

Our autumn menu is now available, featuring the new All-Day Breakfast Baguette and Mexican Bean & Spicy Cheese Flatbread. We've also introduced a Pumpkin Spice Doughnut to our sweet range, complementing the return of our seasonal drinks range including the Pumpkin Spice Latte and Salted Caramel Latte which are both also available as part of our over ice range. We introduced a new pizza option, BBQ chicken, and our pizza sharing boxes are now available in both four slice and six slice boxes.

Shop estate and supply chain development

In the year to date we have opened 152 new shops and closed 66 shops (including 43 relocations), giving a total of 2,559 shops trading at 28 September 2024 (comprising 2,016 company-managed shops and 543 franchised units).  Openings in the third quarter included two Drive-Thrus in Bristol, at Abbeywood Retail Park and Harlequin Business Park.  For the year as a whole, we expect 140 to 160 net shop openings, including around 50 relocations and 55 net openings with franchise partners.  In line with our strategic plan, our shop opening programme is improving the quality of the Greggs estate, as well as extending its reach.

Investment in our supply chain is progressing well, supporting our ambitious growth plans.  We have completed the redevelopment of our Birmingham distribution centre and the extension of our Amesbury distribution centre, adding logistics capacity to support a further 300 shops in our southern network. 

Construction of our new frozen product manufacturing and logistics facility in Derby is progressing in line with plan and we expect to sign the lease in the fourth quarter of 2024.  Once the lease is signed we will take over the development of the site, fitting out the building to our requirements, ahead of the site opening in 2026.  The planning application for our new chilled and ambient National Distribution Centre in Kettering has been submitted.  Subject to planning permission being granted we expect the land purchase to complete in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the site being developed for opening in H1 2027.

Our full year guidance for capital expenditure in 2024 remains in the range of £250 to £280 million, with the timing of the land purchase at Kettering being the primary uncertainty.

Outlook

Greggs continues to extend its reach, bringing new shops closer to customers and establishing the supply chain capacity to support further growth.  With increased forward buying cover we now expect the overall level of cost inflation for 2024 to be towards the lower end of the 4-5% range previously communicated.  At a time when consumers continue to face uncertainty Greggs offers exceptional value for money.

Whilst acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty, the Board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations.  The Board remains confident in the long-term growth opportunity for Greggs, and we are investing to support that growth.