trunkmonk
17 분 전
Issue is too much info or bantering confuses new GSE investors, or just people who don’t come here that often. Here a lot of clowns say they are online for entertainment, even pretend to be young interesting women for men. One of those guys worked for me at a Hospital. Good thing he was very good at his job, his hobby and entertainment was concerning. Too many freaks out there, don’t be one of them I keep telling myself. Have fun at expense of no one, defend God, family, country, investments in that order. If not the priorities are messed up and will never lead to the golden streets in the markets, in life, and after. Me hostile🤣, u ain’t seen me hostile.
navycmdr
2 시간 전
Possibility Of Privatizing Fannie, Freddie Raises Questions About
The Future Of Crucial Mortgage Guarantee
December 9, 2024 Matt Wasielewski, South Florida
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited speculation about
the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, an effort he proposed during his first term.
As the housing sector waits for details of a plan to emerge, economists, bankers and brokers are
keenly interested to see whether the federal government's guarantee on
mortgage-backed securities will survive any reform.
A product of the Global Financial Crisis, the government's support of the sector has become its
defining feature and a facet of the system that would have widespread impacts on multifamily
lending if dropped.
“No matter what structure they come up with that they call privatization, the government is going
to have to be heavily involved with its balance sheet as a backstop,” said Stuart Boesky, founder
and CEO of New York-based multifamily lender Pembrook Capital Management. “Otherwise,
our whole system of financing will drastically change.”
Since the mortgage market collapse and subsequent Great Recession, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac have been under federal oversight. The government sets the rules, but it also
guarantees that the mortgage-backed securities being sold will never default in a process
called conservatorship.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are by far the most active participants in the $11Trillion
mortgage-backed securities market, with $310B in average daily trading volume as of
November, according to trader-broker trade organization Sifma.
Trump’s allies have been preparing to relaunch privatization efforts since before his
election night victory, and Republicans have for years chafed at the conservatorship
program.
“Markets expect — maybe not immediately, but over the course of the second Trump
administration — much more of an effort to release them from conservatorship,” said
Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers
Association. “From a market participant's perspective, it's really a question of,
what does that look like?”
In a 2018 proposal, the Trump administration promised to make Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac “fully private entities,” HousingWire reported at the time. The plans
fizzled after Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 race for the White House, but Trump’s
win last month has once again shifted the calculation.
“With the [2024] election, it went from unlikely to possible,” Fratantoni said.
The stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have more than doubled since
Donald Trump won a second term in the White House on Nov. 5, an indication
that investors feel privatization is likely.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exist by charter to ensure the supply of capital in
mortgage markets and to promote affordable housing development. The agencies
don’t directly underwrite any mortgages, instead purchasing loans from other
firms before packaging the debt and selling it into a secondary market.
The mortgage guarantee limits investor exposure, reducing their overall risk and
increasing the security asset’s value. While key in the multifamily commercial real
estate space, the federal guarantee is also the key reason for the success of the
30-year fixed-rate mortgages that underpin the U.S. housing market, a uniquely
American creation made possible because the government assumes some of
the long-term risk.
Fannie Mae
The Trump administration first floated a plan to privatize Fannie Mae in 2018.
Any significant change to the securities market would create volatility in the
housing market and could upend the Federal Reserve’s attempt to avoid a
recession while taming inflation.
Mortgage Bankers Association CEO Bob Broeksmit wrote in a blog post last
week that his organization wanted to help facilitate a “safe and sound exit
plan” from conservatorship that included an explicit federal mortgage
guarantee, which Broeksmit said was essential for maintaining stability
and liquidity in the secondary market.
“An unwelcome outcome would be confusion about to what extent the
government is standing behind the security,” Fratantoni said. “Our worry
is that there's a sense that there's a rush to get through this.”
The elimination of a federal guarantee would not only push down the
value of the securities offered by the agencies but also likely lead their
credit to deteriorate and their debt costs to rise, Boesky said.
The agencies are also amid an expanding investigation meant to root
out fraud in its books that Fannie Mae said in third-quarter reporting
was the greatest risk factor facing the agency. It has suspended deal
making with several mortgage brokers as it scrutinizes its
balance sheet.
“If they have the same capital level and it was privatized today, they
would gap out so wide that it would be prohibitive,” Boesky said,
using a term that refers to a wide and rapid swing in valuation.
It is a risk officials in the first Trump administration seemed aware of.
The 2018 plan included the creation of an insurance program with
an “explicit Federal guarantee” that would only be “exposed in limited,
exigent circumstances,” according to HousingWire. The program
would effectively replace the backstop that exists through conservatorship.
The Trump transition team didn’t respond to Bisnow’s request for comment.
“Pretty much everyone thinks that [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] should
pay the Treasury some sort of standby commitment fee for backstopping
their obligations,” said Michael LaCour-Little, a semiretired finance
professor at California State University, Fullerton and former director of
economics at Fannie Mae. “Nobody knows quite what that number
should be either.”
The 2018 proposal said “other competitive entrants” to the mortgage
securities market would have access to the insurance program. But the
reach of any insurance program would likely be a sticking point in any
effort to unmoor the agencies from the federal government, Boesky said.
The backstop would have to be offered to every mortgage securities
broker to avoid creating a two-tiered market where one type of
investment is significantly riskier.
“You’d have private mortgage companies and private securitizers,”
Boesky said. “And then you’d have this gold-plated group.”
JSmith5
2 시간 전
Uplisting - There should not be too many concerns about whether or not an uplisting to NYSE and any sales of the Government's interest would be successful regardless of the size of the amount. Because of the Government backing (whether it ends up implicit, explicit, a vague "maybe" or whatever) as this stock would be considered more closely analogous to a Government bond. If the companies become "utility-like" even more so. The world is awash in cash looking for a home. For example, I googled to find the amount of average daily Treasury sales and got the following:
"According to data from SIFMA, the average daily amount of US Treasury debt sold is around $879 billion. This figure represents the average trading volume in the Treasury market, which includes both primary dealer activity and secondary market transactions.."
So sales involving a couple of hundred billion dollars - and it won't be all at once - will be money coming out of the chump change jars of some hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds and/or companies like Berkshire Hathaway ($277B cash/treasuries and growing). We are talking less than 1/4 of one day's Treasury sales. Although large, you can't compare it to a normal stock offering.
And for those of you who insist that the Government won't cash in any of its interest whether seniors or warrants or both - regardless of whether they do or not - the demand for these shares will be overwhelming once they get on a real stock exchange.
Again, don't get wrapped around the axle because of a concern that it may "set the record". And definitely don't be concerned about investor demand because "they screwed the legacy stockholders over". They will buy because that screwing provides an opportunity for them.
Compared to the volume of daily transactions of Treasuries and other transactions of similar size across the globe - the size of the sales would be nothing to brag on - sort of like saying you own the biggest house in Hyattsville - like, so what!!
Nats
NeoSunTzu
14 시간 전
Back in 2013 Pagliara, along with Investors Unite, took a large group of us out to D.C to meet lawmakers ... a sort of citizens lobby. I have no way to measure the impact we made, but I don't think it was meaningful. Also, I'm not so sure we were not some sort of pawns in the game for Cap Wealth's end goals - again, no way for me to truly assess that possibility.
I do know that 4 or 5 of the small group I was associated with are either no longer in this, no longer allowed to post on this board (one received a lifetime ban from iHub - I'm not even sure how you go about earning that rather unique badge), or have just decided to go silent. The guy with the rather odd music (country?) videos was one - he was totally unlike the videos you see - although those came later, maybe fannie blew his mind out ... Bradford was there and If I'm not mistaken Rick was there as well. Anyone know if David Sims is still around?
mrfence
15 시간 전
In addition to running CapWealth, Tim has evolved into an activist investor, working on non-partisan projects with elected federal officials to fix America’s debt problem and promote a pro-growth agenda that has the potential to put the country and her citizens on a better fiscal and economic path. In 2014, he founded The Main Street Growth & Opportunity Coalition. The group is a national alliance of businesses, local trade organizations, and concerned citizens that support Tim’s pro-growth hopes for America.
Also, in 2014, Tim founded Investors Unite. The organization would become the inspiration behind his book, Another Big Lie, which tells the story of Tim’s tireless work representing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders. The group works closely with Washington insiders to seek a full restitution of dividends seized from investors by the Treasury Department.
An active philanthropist, Tim’s foundation, Pagliara Family Charities, helped start a school in Tanzania that now enrolls 4,300 students with a curriculum that prepares them for careers in math and science.
Tim earned his undergraduate degree at St. Louis University and a law degree from St. Louis University School of Law. He also graduated from the Wharton School Securities Industry Institute at the University of Pennsylvania and is a Tennessee Bar Association member.
https://timpagliara.com/about/
mrfence
16 시간 전
Your preaching to the Choir. Nadar only got us from a penny on the dollar to a nickel on the dollar but 500% is 500%. My point was, an FHFA director pick that advocated for writing down the Senior PREF and Warrants could yield 10, 20, 30 cents on the dollar overnight. Give me the guy that wrote the book, Tim Pagliara, and I say 50 cents on the dollar right now.
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