New Oliver Wyman and Clifford Chance Report Estimates Brexit ‘Red Tape’ Will Cost EU27 and UK Exporters £58 Billion a Year
12 3월 2018 - 4:00PM
Business Wire
- The annual ‘red tape’, or tariff and
non-tariff, costs of Brexit for EU27 exporters is around £31
billion and for UK exporters is around £27 billion even after
initial steps to mitigate costs have been taken. This is
proportionately 4 times larger for the UK as a percentage of Gross
Value Added (GVA1).
- 70% of the aggregate impact falls in
just five sectors in both the EU27 and UK.
- Disproportional impacts in specific
regions such as Bavaria in Germany and London in the UK.
- A future customs arrangement
equivalent to The Customs Union reduces the EU27 impact to around
£14 billion and the UK impact to around £17 billion. Mitigating the
costs of Brexit are non-trivial and impacted firms need to be
taking steps now. Small firms will be least able to mitigate these
costs and in turn pose risks to their supply chain.
In a unique assessment of the business costs of Brexit, Oliver
Wyman and Clifford Chance have partnered to calculate the impact of
tariffs and non-tariff barriers on companies if the EU27 and UK
reverted to a World Trade Organisation (WTO) trading relationship
with each other.
The ‘red-tape’ cost of Brexit estimates that the direct costs
will total around £31 billion for EU exporters and around £27
billion for UK exporters, with non-tariff barriers accounting for
more of the effect than tariffs. The report focusses only on the
direct impacts of the UK’s exit from the EU which are of immediate
importance to companies for Brexit planning. It does not model
additional impacts such as migration, pricing changes or third
country Free Trade Agreements, which are likely to increase the
overall impact.
In the EU27 the hardest hit sector will be automotive, where the
direct impact will be around 2% of current GVA. Country level
differences will vary considerably, with Ireland’s agricultural
sector’s exposure to UK consumers, for example, a particular pinch
point. In Germany, four of the sixteen states – Bavaria, North
Rhine-Westphalia, Baden –Wuerttemberg, and Lower Saxony – will
shoulder around 70% of the country’s direct impacts as a result of
exports to the UK that arise from their leading global positions in
automotive and manufacturing.
In the UK the Financial Services sector will take by far the
biggest hit, incurring around a third of the extra ‘red-tape’
costs. However, there are very significant impacts in other sectors
where firms are highly integrated into European supply chains – for
example in the automotive, aerospace, chemicals and metals and
mining sectors.
Kumar Iyer, Partner, Oliver Wyman, says: “There will be both
winners and losers from Brexit. In order to navigate the
uncertainty companies should be thinking about impacts under
different scenarios both operationally and strategically. We see
the best prepared firms taking hedges now based on the direct
impacts on themselves, their supply chains, customers and
competitors. Unfortunately we see that small firms are least able
to take these steps at present.”
The impact assessment also reveals that the ability to mitigate
the impacts of post-Brexit trade barriers will vary by sector and
company size. Before designing their response, firms need to think
through the impact on different levels: operations, supply chains,
customers and competitors. Small firms will find this particularly
challenging especially where they have no non-EU trade experience
and may be rendered uncompetitive as they seek to make the changes
needed. Automotive and aerospace industries will be able to
localise supply chains and take advantage of domestic suppliers in
some areas but with the loss of “passporting” financial services
will require relevant front and back-office staff to relocate to
the EU. However, even within each industry individual impacts and
the appropriate response are highly variable. The differences will
depend on things like the mix of goods and services the business
sells, where it is based, where its customers are, and how complex
its supply chain is.
Jessica Gladstone, Partner, Clifford Chance, says: “Failing to
prepare is preparing to fail. Given the difficulty of knowing
exactly what turbulence lies ahead many businesses are putting
Brexit in the 'too hard' box. However, exporters that understand
exactly what Brexit's risks and rewards could be for them will be
able to implement the right plans at the right time to ensure that
they are one of the winners rather than one of the losers.”
Access the full report: The Red-Tape cost of Brexit
Notes to Editors
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With
offices in 50+ cities across nearly 30 countries, Oliver Wyman
combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in
strategy, operations, risk management, and organization
transformation. The firm has more than 4,700 professionals around
the world who help clients optimize their business, improve their
operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational
performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver
Wyman is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan
Companies [NYSE:MMC]. For more information, visit
www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on Twitter
@OliverWyman.
About Clifford Chance:
Clifford Chance is one of the world's pre-eminent law firms with
significant depth and range of resources across five continents. As
a single, fully integrated, global partnership, we pride ourselves
on our approachable, collegiate and team based way of working. We
always strive to exceed the expectations of our clients, which
include corporates from all the commercial and industrial sectors,
governments, regulators, trade bodies and not for profit
organisations. We provide them with the highest quality advice and
legal insight, which combines the firm's global standards with
in-depth local expertise.
1 Gross value added (GVA) is the measure of the value of goods
and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy.
GVA is GDP plus subsidies less taxes; Tariff is a tax or duty to be
paid on a particular class of imports or exports.
View source
version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180312005138/en/
Oliver Wyman:Gregor Ridley, +44 7342
053449Gregor.ridley@oliverwyman.comorClifford Chance:Michael
Osborne, +44 7949 054340michael.osborne@cliffordchance.com
Marsh and McLennan Compa... (NYSE:MMC)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 6월(6) 2024 으로 7월(7) 2024
Marsh and McLennan Compa... (NYSE:MMC)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 7월(7) 2023 으로 7월(7) 2024