Oliver Wyman Predicts Renewables Will Become Dominant Energy Source by 2050 – & Reveals Four Mega-Trends Set to Shape the G...
22 5월 2017 - 8:01AM
Business Wire
A global energy system based mainly on renewables can be
achieved by 2050, but governments need to fully commit to a switch
over from existing systems and energy companies need to scale up
their efforts to transition to a low-carbon world. This is the main
prediction by global management consultancy, Oliver Wyman, as it
gears up to launch its annual Energy Journal.
Highlighting four mega-trends set to reshape the global energy
industry, the firm maps out a dramatically changed relationship
between the energy producer and the energy consumer, a shift from
West to East in the production of technologies used to power a
low-carbon energy system, and the emergence of an oil and gas
sector that will be dominated by four distinct business models.
The four mega-trends are:
1. Coal-fired power and nuclear will no longer be
viable sources of power in OECD (Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development) countries by 2050:
- Coal-fired generation in OECD countries
is in terminal decline, initially displaced by cleaner natural gas,
but increasingly by renewable generation sources that continue to
grow faster than predicted. The share of renewable generation has
doubled every 5.5 years. If we continue on this trajectory, by
2050, up to 90% of OECD generation will be from renewables. As the
cost of renewables decline with increased scale of deployment, the
economics of new fossil fuel or nuclear investments will become
uneconomic, especially when considering there is no ‘fuel cost’ for
renewable generation.
2. The speed of adoption of renewable generation and
distributed energy resources (DER) will result in a mostly
decentralised and highly democratised energy system by
2040:
- There will be a rise in the number of
‘prosumers’ (those that both consume and produce electricity) at a
local level. These participants will trade power among themselves
at a local level, operate flexibly (through demand side response,
aggregation and choices around when and through which mechanism
they consume or sell power) to ensure the system is in balance.
They will also play a far more active role in the energy system as
a whole.
3. The engine for developing the technologies that
will power the energy revolution will reside in Asia and to a
lesser extent in the US:
- China in particular will set the pace
of technology development and low-cost scale manufacturing by using
its domestic market to drive mass production and drive down costs –
from wind turbines and solar solutions to battery storage
technologies for large, grid-scale usage as well as to power
Electric Vehicles (EVs).
4. The energy transition will change the economics of
oil and gas industry, leading to the emergence of four distinct
business models:
- Low-cost, high-volume producers
– local oil and gas companies that operate in regions where
costs of exploration and production continue to be very low, such
as Saudi Arabia
- Onshore unconventional operators
– agile, low-cost operators. These companies will look to
minimise upfront capital investment in projects. They will focus on
using new technologies and very lean, efficient operations to
maximise a shorter well lifecycle where production can be ramped
up/down and brought online quickly
- Integrated asset-owning service
companies – highly-integrated, multi-disciplinary energy
businesses that will emerge as international oil companies and
oilfield services companies combine to bring their respective
capabilities to the post-transition global energy sector -
including engineering, project management, large-scale logistical,
technical and operational capabilities; as well as international
and national political insight and negotiation skills
- Finance-backed operators –
private equity and infrastructure funds investing in mature oil and
gas assets. This will allow international oil companies to divest
and redeploy capital investment in higher growth regions while also
participating in the new power business models and solutions
Francois Austin, Global Energy Leader, Oliver Wyman, says:
“Governments need to champion and commit to COP21 targets and
organisations need to be bold and agile in order to achieve an
energy system built mainly on renewables by 2050. Our four mega
trends represent the major drivers for change and disruption that
lie ahead for the industry in the coming years. Those players
willing to invest boldly in innovation and re-think their operating
and financial models will be best placed to succeed during this
period of transition.”
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With
offices in 50+ cities across nearly 30 countries, Oliver Wyman
combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in
strategy, operations, risk management, and organization
transformation. The firm has more than 4,500 professionals around
the world who help clients optimize their business, improve their
operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational
performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver
Wyman is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan
Companies [NYSE:MMC]. For more information, visit
www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on Twitter
@OliverWyman.For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.com.Follow
Oliver Wyman on Twitter @OliverWyman.
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Oliver WymanFrancine Minadeo,
212-345-6417francine.minadeo@oliverwyman.com
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