KKR Releases 2024 Global Macro Outlook
15 12월 2023 - 9:00PM
Business Wire
Henry McVey: Investors Should Approach Markets
with a ‘Glass Half Full’ Lens
KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2024
Global Macro Outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet and
Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA).
In “Glass Half Full,” McVey and his team maintain a constructive
tilt on the investing landscape for 2024, despite ever-present
geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. They note that there is
still a significant amount of dispersion within and across asset
classes that long-term investors can harness to create substantial
value. They also note that, while they continue to believe that
inflation will remain higher for longer, they expect a temporary
disinflationary impulse in the first six months of 2024, which
could create opportunities for short-term investors to lean into
fixed income instruments.
The following key tailwinds underpin the GMAA team’s continued
constructive view in 2024:
- Central Bank balance sheets, which are still near record
levels, are creating a cushion that is helping support asset
prices, especially during periods of market stress.
- We still believe the bear market in Equities ended in October
2022. Returns tend to be above average after a 25% decline in the
S&P 500 for the next five to seven years.
- We think earnings for this cycle bottomed in Q2 2023, despite
our forecast for significantly slower nominal GDP in 2024.
- The technical bid for parts of Credit and Equities remains
compelling, as new issuance remains near record lows.
- We believe central banks are closer to ending their tightening
campaigns, which should help narrow spreads on cost of capital for
deal activity.
Against this backdrop, McVey and his team identify the following
key mega-themes that can serve as compelling investment
opportunities and hedges in both disinflationary and reflationary
environments.
- Industrial Automation – We are seeing the emergence of
an industrial automation cycle, as companies search for new ways to
drive productivity and efficiency in a world where demographics and
cross-border connectivity are becoming increasingly
challenged.
- Security of Everything – We are still very bullish on
this theme as regulators and executives around the world continue
to prioritize the resiliency of key inputs such as energy, data,
transportation, and pharmaceuticals. We also expect governments to
spend more on the intersection of climate and supply chains, and on
cybersecurity, especially in the financial services industry.
- Intra-Asia Connectivity – Asia is becoming more
Asia-centric as more trade occurs within the region, a trend that
we believe is now accelerating. We also see more countries in the
region participating in and benefiting from Asia’s global growth
engine.
- Labor Productivity/Work Force Development – We continue
to see labor shortages accelerating the trend towards automation
and companies focusing more on technology-driven productivity
gains, especially in fields like retail, leisure and hospitality,
and health care. We are also bullish on worker retraining to help
employee skills better match employer demand.
- Artificial Intelligence – We think some of the most
compelling opportunities in AI are in the buildout of the physical
infrastructure that is needed for Generative AI to scale and reach
its full potential. This includes data centers, semiconductor
manufacturing, power transmission, and distribution, among other
areas.
- Decarbonization – We are particularly bullish on
brown-to-green transition across existing corporate and government
platforms. These are large scale opportunities that will allow big
sectors of the global economy to become more energy efficient.
In addition to the aforementioned insights and themes, the
report details the GMAA team’s updated views on growth, interest
rates, commodities, currencies, and asset allocation.
Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of
Henry McVey's previous publications follow:
- To read the latest Insights, click here.
- For an archive of previous publications please visit
www.KKRInsights.com.
About Henry McVey
Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global
Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief
Investment Officer for the Firm’s Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide
Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR’s Strategic Partnership
Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm’s Global
Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior
to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio
Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan
Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey
here.
About KKR
KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative
asset management as well as capital markets and insurance
solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by
following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing
world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio
companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that
invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic
partners that manage hedge funds. KKR’s insurance subsidiaries
offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the
management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR’s
investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and
insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR &
Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR’s website at www.kkr.com.
For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group,
please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group’s website at
www.globalatlantic.com.
The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the
personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect
the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR offers or
invests. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal,
tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an
investment or other decision. This release is prepared solely for
information purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past
recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any
securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release
contains projections or other forward-looking statements, which are
based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a
result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs,
actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak
only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor
Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as
required by law.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231215317885/en/
Media: Julia Kosygina 212-750-8300 media@kkr.com
KKR (NYSE:KKR)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 4월(4) 2024 으로 5월(5) 2024
KKR (NYSE:KKR)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 5월(5) 2023 으로 5월(5) 2024