false 0001691303 0001691303 2025-02-21 2025-02-21 0001691303 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-02-21 2025-02-21 0001691303 us-gaap:SeriesAPreferredStockMember 2025-02-21 2025-02-21
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 21, 2025
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in its Charter)
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Delaware |
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001-38061 |
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81-0706839 |
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) |
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(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) |
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16243 Highway 216 |
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Brookwood Alabama |
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35444 |
(Address of Principal Executive Offices) |
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Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (205) 554-6150
Not Applicable
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
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Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) |
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Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) |
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Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) |
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Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) |
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Exchange Act:
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Title of each class |
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Name of each exchange on which registered |
Common Stock, par value $.01 per share |
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HCC |
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New York Stock Exchange |
Rights to Purchase Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share |
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New York Stock Exchange |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company ☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
Item 7.01 |
Regulation FD Disclosure. |
On February 21, 2025, the Company issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing an update on the transformational Blue Creek steelmaking coal project. The Company also issued a slide presentation regarding the Blue Creek project (the “Blue Creek Presentation”). The Company is furnishing herewith, and incorporating by reference herein, a copy of the Press Release and the Blue Creek Presentation, as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, respectively.
The information provided pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Item 9.01 |
Financial Statements and Exhibits. |
(d) Exhibits.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. |
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Date: February 21, 2025 |
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By: |
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/s/ Dale W. Boyles |
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Dale W. Boyles |
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Chief Financial Officer |
Exhibit 99.1
Warrior Provides Update on Transformational Blue Creek Steelmaking Coal Project
Implementation of Innovative Technologies and Best Practices Significantly Increases Nameplate Capacity
Valuation Metrics Revised Upward Reflecting Increased Efficiency
BROOKWOOD, AL February 21, 2025 - Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) (Warrior or the Company) today
provided several positive operational and financial updates regarding its progress towards developing its world-class Blue Creek project. Warrior is the leading dedicated U.S.-based producer and exporter of high-quality steelmaking coal for the
global steel industry.
Key Highlights
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Nameplate capacity increased 25% to 6.0 million short tons per year from original production plan of
4.8 million short tons per year; |
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At revised nameplate capacity, Blue Creek is expected to generate approximately $1.3 billion of incremental
revenues, $735 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA, and $637 million of incremental free cash flows annually; |
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Net present value (NPV) of Blue Creek is approximately $5.4 billion with an internal rate of
return (IRR) of 35% and a payback period of 2.3 years at revised nameplate capacity |
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On track for shorter production timeline, with the first longwall expected to start no later than Q2 2026; and
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Project expected to be completed on time and within budget, and fully paid for by cash flows generated from
operations. |
Our decision to begin this transformational investment in Blue Creek will transform Warrior and allow us to continue
our proven track record of creating value for stockholders, said Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior. This project represents a transformative opportunity for Warrior through the significant addition of nameplate capacity to address the market
dynamics we believe will continue to play out over the near and medium-term. By furthering Warriors legacy of high-quality, low-cost assets, we believe that Blue Creek will have a positive impact on
Warrior for decades to come and will benefit a wide range of stakeholders. I want to thank our employees and the rest of the project team for their dedication to this project and for ensuring the project is completed safely, on time and on
budget.
Production Projections and Timeline
Since the Blue Creek project was re-launched in May 2022, Warrior has made several meaningful operational and
technological improvements that are anticipated to have a positive impact on the project economics. From a production standpoint, Warrior has been able to increase the nameplate capacity of Blue Creek to 6.0 million short tons per year from the
original production plan of 4.8 million short tons per year, an increase of 25%. The additional capacity increases Warriors overall nameplate capacity by 75%, from 8.0 million short tons per year to 14.0 million short tons per
year.
Warrior has the ability to increase the current nameplate capacity 83%, an additional 0.6 million short tons, to 6.6 million short tons
per year by adding an additional continuous miner unit.
Given current market conditions, Warrior plans to initially operate Blue Creek at
4.8 million short tons per year until the additional tons are warranted, as determined by supply and demand dynamics in the market.
Warrior
continues to advance the project on schedule. After launching continuous miner production during the third quarter of 2024, the Company expects the preparation plant to start in the middle of 2025 and the longwall to start no later than the second
quarter of 2026.
Budget and Valuation Update
Even
with the addition of innovative technologies and best practices, the project remains on budget. Warrior expects the total project capital expenditures, excluding mine development costs and including the impact of inflation on materials, labor,
machinery, and supplies, to remain unchanged in the range of $995 million to $1.075 billion, of which $716.5 million has been spent through December 31, 2024. These investments have been fully funded by cash flows generated from
operations due to Warriors strong performance during the development period. In addition, one of Warriors hallmarks of maintaining a low-cost structure will continue with the Blue Creek mine, as
third party and in-house data projects that Blue Creek will be one of the lowest cost mines in the world.
Based on conservative projections and assuming a long-term benchmark price of $250 per metric ton for the
life of the mine, Warrior expects the Blue Creek mine to generate approximately $1.3 billion of annual revenue, $735 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA, and $637 million of incremental free cash flows annually. With these same
assumptions and at the revised nameplate capacity of 6.0 million short tons per year, Warrior projects an NPV of approximately $5.4 billion, with an IRR of 35% and a payback period of 2.3 years, net of $716.5 million already invested
in the project.
About Warrior
Warrior is a
U.S.-based, environmentally and socially minded supplier to the global steel industry. It is dedicated entirely to mining non-thermal metallurgical (met) steelmaking coal used as a critical component of steel
production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. Warrior is a large-scale, low-cost producer and exporter of premium quality met coal, also known as hard-coking coal (HCC), operating
highly efficient longwall operations in its underground mines based in Alabama. The HCC that Warrior produces from the Blue Creek coal seam contains very low sulfur and has strong coking properties. The premium nature of Warriors HCC makes it
ideally suited as a base feed coal for steel makers. For more information, please visit www.warriormetcoal.com.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
We have not reconciled our forward-looking adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow to GAAP net income or cash flow from operations, respectively, due to the
uncertainty and potential variability of stock-based compensation expense, non-cash asset retirement obligation accretion and valuation adjustments, other non-cash
accretion and valuation adjustments, non-cash mark-to-market loss (gain) on gas hedges and other
non-recurring indirect mining expenses that are difficult to predict in advance in order to include in a GAAP estimate. Because such items cannot be provided without unreasonable efforts, we are unable to
provide a reconciliation of these Non-GAAP Measures to the corresponding GAAP measures. However, such items could have a significant impact on our future GAAP net income and cash flow from operations.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains,
and the Companys officers and representatives may from time to time make, forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this press release that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are
forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the development of, anticipated expenditures on, anticipated financial performance of the Company related to, and the quality of coal to be produced from, the Blue Creek project, as well as
statements regarding sales and production growth, ability to maintain cost structure, demand,
pricing trends, profitability and cash flow generation, competitive advantage, the Companys future ability to create value for stockholders, inflationary pressures and expected capital
expenditures. The words believe, expect, anticipate, plan, intend, estimate, project, target, foresee, should, would,
could, potential, outlook, guidance or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not
forward-looking. These forward-looking statements represent managements good faith expectations, projections, guidance, or beliefs concerning future events, and it is possible that the results described in this press release will not be
achieved. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of the Companys control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the
forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, fluctuations or changes in the pricing or demand for the Companys coal (or met coal generally) by the global steel industry; the impact of global pandemics, such as the novel
coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, on its business and that of its customers, including the risk of a decline in demand for the Companys met coal due to the impact of any such pandemic on steel
manufacturers; the impact of inflation on the Company, the impact of geopolitical events, including the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war; the inability of the Company to effectively operate its mines and the resulting
decrease in production; the inability of the Company to transport its products to customers due to rail performance issues or the impact of weather and mechanical failures at the McDuffie Terminal at the Port of Mobile; federal and state tax
legislation; changes in interpretation or assumptions and/or updated regulatory guidance regarding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; legislation and regulations relating to the Clean Air Act and other environmental initiatives; regulatory
requirements associated with federal, state and local regulatory agencies, and such agencies authority to order temporary or permanent closure of the Companys mines; operational, logistical, geological, permit, license, labor and
weather-related factors, including equipment, permitting, site access, operational risks and new technologies related to mining and labor strikes or slowdowns; the timing and impact of planned longwall moves; the Companys obligations
surrounding reclamation and mine closure; inaccuracies in the Companys estimates of its met coal reserves; any projections or estimates regarding Blue Creek, including the expected returns from this project, if any, and the ability of Blue
Creek to enhance the Companys portfolio of assets, the Companys expectations regarding its future tax rate as well as its ability to effectively utilize its net operating losses to reduce or eliminate its cash taxes; the Companys
ability to develop Blue Creek; the Companys ability to develop or acquire met coal reserves in an economically feasible manner; significant cost increases and fluctuations, and delay in the delivery of raw materials, mining equipment and
purchased components; competition and foreign currency fluctuations; fluctuations in the amount of cash the Company generates from operations, including cash necessary to pay any special or quarterly dividend; the Companys ability to comply
with covenants in its ABL Facility or indenture relating to its senior secured notes; integration of businesses that the Company may acquire in the future; adequate liquidity and the cost, availability and access to capital and financial markets;
failure to obtain or renew surety bonds on acceptable terms, which could affect the Companys ability to secure reclamation and coal lease obligations; costs associated with litigation, including claims not yet asserted; and other factors
described in the Companys Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC), which could
cause the Companys actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. The Companys filings with the SEC are available on its website at www.warriormetcoal.com and on the SECs website at
www.sec.gov.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and, except as required by
law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for the Company to
predict all such factors.
Analysts and Investors, contact: Dale W. Boyles, (205) 554-6129
News Media, contact: DAndre Wright, (205) 554-6131
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Exhibit 99.2 BLUE CREEK PROJECT UPDATE Delivering an Unparalleled Value
Proposition | February 2025
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Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains, and the
Company’s officers and representatives may from time to time make, forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All
statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements,
including statements regarding the development of, anticipated expenditures on, anticipated financial performance of the Company related to, and the quality of coal to be produced from, the Blue Creek project, as well as statements regarding sales
and production growth, ability to maintain cost structure, demand, pricing trends, profitability and cash flow generation, management of expenses, the Company's future ability to create value for stockholders, inflationary pressures, and expected
capital expenditures. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “estimate,” “project,” “target,” “foresee,”
“should,” “would,” “could,” “potential,” “outlook,” “guidance” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these
words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. These forward-looking statements represent management’s good faith expectations, projections, guidance, or beliefs concerning future events, and it is possible that the results
described in this press release will not be achieved. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of the Company’s control, that could cause actual results to differ
materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, fluctuations or changes in the pricing or demand for the Company’s coal (or met coal generally) by the global steel industry; the impact of
global pandemics, such as the novel coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) pandemic, on its business and that of its customers, including the risk of a decline in demand for the Company's met coal due to the impact of any such pandemic on steel manufacturers; the
impact of inflation on the Company, the impact of geopolitical events, including the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war; the inability of the Company to effectively operate its mines and the resulting decrease in production;
the inability of the Company to transport its products to customers due to rail performance issues or the impact of weather and mechanical failures at the McDuffie Terminal at the Port of Mobile; federal and state tax legislation; changes in
interpretation or assumptions and/or updated regulatory guidance regarding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; legislation and regulations relating to the Clean Air Act and other environmental initiatives; regulatory requirements associated with
federal, state and local regulatory agencies, and such agencies’ authority to order temporary or permanent closure of the Company’s mines; operational, logistical, geological, permit, license, labor and weather-related factors, including
equipment, permitting, site access, operational risks and new technologies related to mining and labor strikes or slowdowns; the timing and impact of planned longwall moves; the Company’s obligations surrounding reclamation and mine closure;
inaccuracies in the Company’s estimates of its met coal reserves; any projections or estimates regarding Blue Creek, including the expected returns from this project, if any, and the ability of Blue Creek to enhance the Company's portfolio of
assets, the Company's expectations regarding its future tax rate as well as its ability to effectively utilize its net operating losses to reduce or eliminate its cash taxes; the Company's ability to develop Blue Creek; the Company’s ability
to develop or acquire met coal reserves in an economically feasible manner; significant cost increases and fluctuations, and delay in the delivery of raw materials, mining equipment and purchased components; competition and foreign currency
fluctuations; fluctuations in the amount of cash the Company generates from operations, including cash necessary to pay any special or quarterly dividend; the Company’s ability to comply with covenants in its ABL Facility or indenture relating
to its senior secured notes; integration of businesses that the Company may acquire in the future; adequate liquidity and the cost, availability and access to capital and financial markets; failure to obtain or renew surety bonds on acceptable
terms, which could affect the Company’s ability to secure reclamation and coal lease obligations; costs associated with litigation, including claims not yet asserted; and other factors described in the Company’s Form 10-K for the year
ended December 31, 2024 and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), which could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from those contained in any
forward-looking statement. The Company’s filings with the SEC are available on its website at www.warriormetcoal.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and,
except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not
possible for the Company to predict all such factors. Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains certain Non-GAAP financial measures that are used by the Company’s management when evaluating results of operations and cash flows.
Non-GAAP financial measures should not be construed as being more important than comparable Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) measures. The definition of these Non-GAAP financial measures and detailed reconciliations of
these Non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures for the year ended December 31, 2024 can be found in the Appendix. In addition, detailed reconciliations of these Non-GAAP financial measures for certain other historical
periods in this presentation can be found in earnings press releases located on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com within the Investors section. 2
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Update of Improved Transformational Blue Creek Project
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We Set Out to Deliver a Truly Transformational Project, and Along the
Way We Made it Even Better . . . More Volume at No Incremental Cost Attractive Returns Over Life of the Project (2) Nameplate Capacity increased 25% from our initial Significant Expected Improvement in Revenue , (1,2) (1,2) estimates, a 75% increase
from today’s nameplate capacity Adj EBITDA and FCF vs. Initial Estimates (1) Significant Growth (Mst ) 16.0 (2) (1,2) Revenue Adj EBITDA 14.0 12.0 75% $1.3B $735M Growth 10.0 8.0 14.0 6.0 (1,2) FCF 4.0 8.0 $637M 2.0 0.0 Warrior Nameplate
Warrior Nameplate Capacity 2024 Capacity 2027 (1) n Blue Creek is one of the last remaining large-scale, untapped premium HVA reserves left in the U.S. with an approximate 40 year (1) mine life and a first quartile high volume and low-cost
longwall mining operation that is expected to drive Adjusted EBITDA (1) margins of >50% across the cycle n Approximately 70% of capital has been spent, all internally funded, with the longwall expected to come online no later than Q2 2026
(1) n Warrior expects a step increase in Free Cash Flow as Blue Creek comes online, providing additional capital allocation upside for stockholders Source: Company information (1)Terms are defined in appendix (1) (1) (2) Revenue, Adj EBITDA ,
and FCF calculations are for illustrative purposes only, based on an assumed steelmaking coal price of $250 per metric tonne ($233 per metric tonne realized HVA price), based on the average first 10 years of production (2027-2036), plus estimates
& assumptions that may change based on future developments 4
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…with Significantly Higher Expected Economics to Bolster an
Already Compelling Investment Thesis (1,2) (1,2) NPV IRR First 10 years production average $5.4B 35% (1) At 1/1/25; Excludes $717M of Real, after tax Significant Improvement 6.0 Mst (1,2) (1,2) previously spent capex in IRR , NPV , and (4) Payback
Period vs Initial Improvements in Since Estimates: Initial Project (1) Cash Cost of Sales per St (4) Payback Announcement: • Nameplate capacity 1.2 Mst (3) NPV/sh (1) p.a. higher $90-105 2.3 Years (1,2) $102.88 • NPV up $4.4B (1) FOB ,
Based on average of From start of longwall Real discount rate, after tax first 10 years of production (3) production • NPV/share up $84 (1) capacity of 6.0 Mst p.a. (1,2) • IRR 5% higher (4) • Payback 2.3 years versus (1)
Sustaining Capital Adj. EBITDA Margin 2.4 years Construction Capex $20M >50% $995-1,075M Based on average first 10 Based on average of first 10 years of production capacity Over 5 year period years of production capacity (1) (1) of 6.0 Mst p.a.
of 6.0 Mst p.a. Source: Company information (1)Terms are defined in appendix (2) NPV and IRR calculations are for illustrative purposes only, based on an assumed metallurgical coal price of $250 per metric tonne ($233 per metric tonne realized HVA
price), an ~40 year mine life, plus estimates & assumptions that may change based on future developments. IRR calculation is after-tax and unlevered. NPV assumes an 8.2% real discount rate, after-tax. 5 Assumes 15% cash tax rate. (3) NPV per
share based on outstanding shares of 52.3 million as of December 31, 2024 (4) Payback calculation based on start of longwall production no later than Q2 2026
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Optimized Plan Unlocks Significant Additional Value With Further Upside
at Little Incremental Cost Full Nameplate Capacity Optimizing Blue Creek Growth Run rate production volume incorporates the best practices and technologies implemented in our existing mines over the last several years such as: • Our strategic
growth objective with the first longwall is to optimize the performance of the mine and capture upside efficiencies not ü Use of customized longwall shields to match our mining conditions (1) originally included in the Initial Production Plan
of 4.8 Mst p.a. . ü Use of Landmark face control technology • This chart shows the production rates of those efficiencies in the ü Use of Joy Smart Solutions (real-time monitoring of longwall shearers) (1) Full Nameplate Capacity of
6.0 Mst p.a. without any incremental ü Use of existing longwall footages per day capital. And incorporates new state-of-the-art design and technology, including: • In addition, we have included an Expanded Capacity Option to ü A
slope belt versus skips at the existing mines optimize the new mine even further with minimal incremental ü Modular preparation plant that minimizes maintenance downtime capital should market conditions allow for such additional volumes. ü
Belt system designed to handle two longwalls in the future (2) ü Ultra fine coal recovery system added to the preparation plant design Run Rate Optimization Scenarios (1) 6.6 Mst 6.6 Expanded Capacity Option 6.5 10% 6.4 Run rate production
volume incorporates the addition of a fourth continuous miner unit (scope change): 6.3 ü Requires approximately $21 million of additional capex, which fits within 6.2 (1) total project guidance 6.0 Mst 6.1 ü Requires approximately 40
additional people 6.0ü Assumes Blue Creek longwall can regularly operate at advance rates that have been achieved at our existing longwalls, which have more difficult 5.9 mining conditions 5.8 5.7 Full Nameplate Expanded Capacity Capacity
Option Source: Company information Note: Expected production tons are estimates and based on the current mine plan, historical performance, and estimates based on efficiencies described. Production tons are estimates and are subject to change with
changes to the mine plan and additional information as production begins. (1) Terms are defined in appendix 6 (2) Production volumes are 10-year averages representing the first 10 full years the longwall is operating (2027-2036) Production (million
short tons)
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Project Update: On Time and On Budget Total capital expenditure estimate
reiterated in a range of: $995M to $1.075B Project to date capital expenditure spend as of 12/31/24: $717M ü Warrior proactively expanded the original project scope by $130M in 2023 ü Dramatically improves transportation plan —
adding overland belt and rail loadout ü De-risks ability to deliver product to Port of Mobile via multiple channels ü Other changes to budget and to operating plan include new mining best practices and technological advances developed
since the start of the project ü Strong execution allowed the team to mitigate unprecedented inflationary pressures on the Blue Creek Project the last three years ü Overall project is advancing on schedule: ü Continuous miner
development commenced as expected in 3Q 2024 ü Preparation plant projected to start middle of 2025, followed by first sales of Blue Creek coal to market ü Longwall startup expected no later than 2Q 2026 ü State of the art equipment =
lower maintenance capex Source: Company information 7
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Hitting All Major Project Milestones On Schedule No Middle Middle Later
Q3 Q3 Q4 Q2 of of than 2024 2025 2025 2026 2025 2025 Q2 2026 Source: Company information 8
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Adding a Premium Quality Mine at the Bottom of the Cost Curve to an
Already Premier Asset Base… (2) 2028 Projected Seaborne Hard Coking Coal Cost Curve st nd rd th 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 Quartile Blue Creek Mine 7 Mine 4 Blue Creek dramatically improves Warrior’s already exceptional position
on the seaborne cost curve © 2025 McKinsey & Company Million metric tons Source: MineSpans (1) Terms are defined in appendix (2) Cost Curve shows global total cash costs including direct mining, processing, SG&A, transportation and
royalties, but excluding sustaining capital expenditures. 9 (1) Cost per metric ton FOB
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...Drives Higher Volume, Greater Access to Growth Markets, and Improved
Profitability Through the Cycle Shift to Higher Growth Markets Increase in Volume Higher Margins ü With the addition of Blue Creek, we ü Expect shipments to skew more ü Warrior’s mix shift is expected to (1) expect to deliver
transformational heavily towards highest demand swing to more premium HVA coal, growth as nameplate capacity growth areas in India / Southeast Asia while a lower cost structure results in (1) increases 75% to 14.0 Mst p.a. higher consolidated
margins across the cycle (1) Significant Growth (Mst ) 16 14 12 33% 41% (1) HVA Pacific 75% Growth 60% 10 61% 8 14.0 6 4 67% 8.0 Atlantic 59% (1) PLV 40% 2 39% 0 Warrior Nameplate Warrior Nameplate 2024 2027 Capacity 2024 Capacity 2027 2024 2027
Source: Company information (1) Terms are defined in the appendix 10
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Blue Creek is Poised to Play a Vital Role in the Seaborne Market for
Decades to Come
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Megatrends Continue Driving Long-Term Steel Demand Growth Global steel
demand expected to grow over the long-term, fueled by demand for infrastructure growth from emerging countries, primarily India and Southeast Asia, and to support the energy transition, which is steel intensive (1) Global Steel Demand 2050 (Mmt )
CAGR 2025-2050 2,500 India 3.2% China -0.6% ROW 1.3% 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 2025 2035 2050 India China ROW © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited Industrializing emerging markets, namely India, expected to drive growth in steel demand over the next
25 years. China’s decline driven by decreased capital to industrial production and declining demographics Source: McCloskey by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company (1) Terms are defined in the appendix 12
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Global Seaborne Coking Coal Demand Expected to Exceed Seaborne Coking
Coal Supply in the Near-Term… (1) Global Seaborne Coking Coal Demand Outlook (Mmt ) Global Surplus/(Deficit) of Seaborne Coking (1) Coal (Mmt ) 400 Expected Long-Term Structural India’s Growth Driven 30 Deficit is Due to Underinvestment
(1) By New BF/BOF Capacity 350 in New Supply 13 13 China’s Decline Driven by 20 Two-Thirds of the Deficit in 2035 15 20 Decreased Capital to Industrial 300 is Hard Coking Coal 18 26 Production and Focus on 29 (1) Increasing EAF /Green Steel 33
250 Initiatives 10 42 50 As a Result, Demand for 6 200 Steelmaking Coal in India will 0 Exceed Demand for Steelmaking Coal in China 89 150 133 India Up 50% -10 by 2035 100 -28 China Down 23% -20 108 50 by 2035 83 -30 0 2025 2035 2025 2035 Mainland
China India Japan South Korea Europe Vietnam Brazil © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited • Limited forecast supply additions mean that the seaborne steelmaking coal market is expected to (1) New BF/BOF capacity is rapidly increasing move into
a structural deficit, which is supportive of the long-term pricing outlook in countries dependent on seaborne coking • Forecasts typically do not include supply disruptions, which happen regularly in this industry; when (1) a supply disruption
occurs, there is potential for significant extended price dislocations to the coal. India’s rapid expansion of BF/BOF upside steel production drives the overall growth in • The supply-demand gap is expected to accelerate in the near-term
as the lack of investment in new seaborne coking coal demand for the mines and expected end-of-life of existing mines clashes with expected demand growth foreseeable future Source: McCloskey by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company (1) Terms are defined in
appendix 13
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…with Rapidly Growing Indian Steel Production Driving the Stress
on the Seaborne Steelmaking Coal Markets India represents the world’s fastest growing steel producer while also being saddled with an absence of domestic steelmaking coal reserves (1) ü High-quality new Indian steelmaking capacity is
expected to be BF/BOF , which should drive India’s growth in seaborne steelmaking coal demand for decades to come ü India is already the world’s largest importer of seaborne steelmaking coal, and is anticipated to expand that
position for decades ü India does not have access to large quantities of high-quality domestic coal, and will have to rely on imports (1) India BF/BOF Steel Production India Steelmaking Coal Imports (1) (1) (Mmt ) (Mmt ) (1) (1) 2025 Production
of 74.0 Mmt 2025 Demand of 88.9 Mmt 200 250 (1) (1) 2050 Production of 185.2 Mmt 2050 Demand of 214.9 Mmt 180 Overall growth from 2025 - 2050 of Overall demand increase from (1) (1) 111.2 Mmt or 150% 2025 – 2050 of 126.0 Mmt or 142% 160 200
Compound Annual Growth Rate ~3.7% Compound Annual Growth Rate ~3.6% 140 120 150 100 80 100 60 50 40 20 0 0 2025 2035 2050 2025 2035 2050 © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited Source: McCloskey by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company (1) Terms are defined in
appendix 14
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Blue Creek’s Premium Quality Expected to Command Premium Margins
(1) 5 Year Historical Price Trends (per Mt ) The historical $800 5-year average (1) 5 -Year Average (Nominal $/Mt ) $700 prices for both Aus Benchmark $ 252 (1) US HVA $ 238 indices are $600 (1) above $225/Mt $500 • As demand exceeds supply
$400 in the near-term, this should be supportive of Covid-impacted period $300 long-term pricing • Furthermore, as new $200 capacity skews more and more towards lower $100 quality coals, remaining higher quality products are likely to command
$0 premium pricing (1) Aus Benchmark US HVA Source: Platts Pricing Assessments (PLVHA00, AAWWS00) and Warrior Analysis (1) Terms are defined in appendix 15 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22
Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24
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A Leader in Capital Returns to Stockholders Poised for a Major Step-
Change in Free Cash Flow
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Strong Record of Returning Cash to Stockholders Approaching the Next
Phase of Significant Excess Cash Flow A Major Shift from Investment to With a Strong Record of Plus a Proven Track Record of Incremental Free Cash Flow Returning Cash to Stockholders Returns Generation from Blue Creek (1) Blue Creek Stand-Alone
(millions) $800 § Paid regular quarterly dividend $717 Total Stockholder Return since 2017, increased three (2) $700 Since IPO in 2017 times, or 60% since the start of the Project $600 692% § Paid $1.3B in special dividends since the 2017
IPO $500 vs. S&P500 of 153% Sustaining capex § Bought back $51 million of stock $400 since the 2017 IPO Construction $300 capex $250 Equals a Construction capex Expected Cash Flow $200 Compelling $108 $100 Value $20 $20 $20 $- Pre-2025 2025
2026 2027 2028 2029 Proposition Source: Company information (1) Based on high end of the capital expenditure range ($995 million - $1.075 billion) (2) Total shareholder return calculated for the period 4/13/2017 through 12/31/2024 17
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(1) (1) Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Impacts if
Online in 2024 Show Exceptional Earnings Power of Project *,(1,2) *,(1,2) Incremental Adj. EBITDA and Adj. EBITDA Margin Incremental Free Cash Flow (FCF) and FCF Conversion (3) 87% 86% 87% 86% 58% 60% 61% 63% 58% 88% 87% 50% 57% 87% 87% 29% 53% 55%
$925 $859 $799 $797 $742 $735 $690 $683 $637 $615 $593 $552 $535 $490 $482 $448 $429 (3) $261 Warrior @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV Warrior @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV @PLV 2024A
$190/mt$205/mt$220/mt$235/mt$250/mt$265/mt$280/mt$295/mt 2024 Pro $190/mt $205/mt $220/mt $235/mt $250/mt $265/mt $280/mt $295/mt (3) $240/mt Forma Blue Creek $240/mt Blue Creek Source: Company information *See “Non-GAAP Financial
Measures” in the Appendix (1) (1) Note: At full nameplate capacity of 6.0 Mst p.a. Blue Creek represents average of first 10 years of production capacity. Pricing of $240/mt shown in metric tonnes and represents Australian Premium PLV FOB. (1)
Terms are defined in the appendix (1) 18 (2) The prices indicated are hypothetical and shown for purposes of the sensitivity analysis; the illustrative Blue Creek Adjusted EBITDA , Adjusted EBITDA (1) (1) Margin and Free Cash Flow numbers included
in this presentation for Blue Creek are as of December 2024 and are subject to material change over the projected development period for this project. In addition, future project scope changes, if any, not known at this time are not reflected in the
total cost estimates. (1) (3) 2024 FCF adjusted to exclude $381M of Blue Creek Mine Development and Capex – see reconciliation in Appendix. See footnotes on page 5 for important qualifications. 1 (US$ in millions )
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Appendix/Reconciliations
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Definitions and Footnotes Adj. EBITDA means EBITDA adjusted for certain
one-time items as HVA means high volatile type A coking coal. shown in the reconciliations at the end of this presentation. IRR means internal rate of return. Adj. EBITDA Margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA divided by total revenue. Met coal means
steelmaking coal. BF means blast furnace. Mt means metric tonnes. BF-BOF means blast furnace – basic oxygen furnace, which is how Mmt means millions of metric tonnes. most steel is produced today. Mst means millions of short tons. One short
ton is the equivalent of CSR means coke strength after reaction. 0.907185 metric tonnes. EAF means electric arc furnace, which is an alternative steel Mst p.a. means millions of short tons per annum. production method to BF-BOF. NPV means net
present value. EBITDA means Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. PCI means pulverized coal injection. FOB means Free on Board. PLV means premium low vol coking coal. Free Cash Flow (FCF) is defined as net cash provided by
operating SHCC means semi-hard coking coal. activities less purchases of property, plant and equipment and mine development costs. SSCC means semi-soft coking coal. Free Cash Flow Conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by St means short
ton. Adjusted EBITDA. Steelmaking coal means met coal, which includes HCC, SHCC, SSCC, and HCC means hard coking coal. PCI. Source: Company information 20
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures (1) Reconciliation of Adjusted
EBITDA to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP For the year ended December 31, (in thousands) 2024 Net income $ 250,603 Interest income, net (28,776) Income tax expense 33,063 Depreciation and depletion 153,982 Asset retirement obligation accretion and
valuation adjustments 5,435 Stock compensation expense 22,070 Other non-cash accretion and valuation adjustments 9,114 Non-cash mark-to-market loss on gas hedges 1,835 Business interruption 524 (1) Adjusted EBITDA $ 447,850 Total revenues $
1,525,220 (1) Adjusted EBITDA margin 29.4% Source: Company filings 1 Note: Terms are defined in appendix. 21
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures (1) (1) Reconciliation of
Incremental Free Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Conversion to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP For the year ended December 31, (in thousands) 2024 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 367,448 Purchases of property, plant and equipment and mine
development costs (488,281) Free Cash Flow (120,833) 350,481 Blue Creek Capex Blue Creek Mine Development 31,060 Free Cash Flow (Adj. for Blue Creek) $ 260,708 Adjusted EBITDA $ 447,850 Free cash flow conversion 58% Source: Company filings 1 Note:
Terms are defined in appendix. 22
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures We have not reconciled our
forward-looking adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow or cash cost of sales to GAAP net income, net income margin, cash flow from operations or cost of sales, respectively, due to the uncertainty and potential variability of
stock-based compensation expense, non-cash asset retirement obligation accretion and valuation adjustments, other non-cash accretion and valuation adjustments, non-cash mark-to-market loss (gain) on gas hedges and other non-recurring indirect mining
expenses that are difficult to predict in advance in order to include in a GAAP estimate. Because such items cannot be provided without unreasonable efforts, we are unable to provide a reconciliation of these Non- GAAP Measures to the corresponding
GAAP measures. However, such items could have a significant impact on our future GAAP net income, net income margin, cash flow from operations or cost of sales. 23
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Appendix Disclaimer “The information referenced herein contains
the copyrighted property of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. or its affiliates (“Dow Jones”) and represent data, research, opinions or viewpoints published by Dow Jones, and are not representations of fact. The Dow Jones materials speak as
of the original publication date thereof and are subject to change without notice. Dow Jones has no duty or responsibility to update the Dow Jones materials. Moreover, while the Dow Jones materials reproduced herein are from sources considered
reliable, the accuracy and completeness thereof are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses upon which they are based. To the extent permitted by law, Dow Jones shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense
incurred by reliance on the Dow Jones materials or resulting from any omission . No portion of the Dow Jones materials may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without the prior written consent of Dow Jones. Content reproduced
or redistributed with Dow Jones’s permission must display all legal notices, disclaimers and attributions of authorship. All Dow Jones names and logos are trademarks of Dow Jones.” 24
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Source: Company information
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Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 1월(1) 2025 으로 2월(2) 2025
Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 2월(2) 2024 으로 2월(2) 2025