19 related restrictions. As restrictions related to the pandemic subside, management expects favorable market conditions for the ethanol industry to continue.
However, the pandemic is ongoing and various dynamic factors, including the possible outbreak of new coronavirus variants, make it difficult to forecast the long-term effects of the pandemic on our industry as a whole and our Company specifically. Further, tangential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, labor market volatility, and raw material shortages may continue affect our operations and profitability.
It is possible that even after the pandemic subsides, there will be permanent changes to business and transportation norms that will reduce demand for ethanol especially if higher gasoline prices cause consumers to reduce or restrict gasoline purchases. For example, increased adoption of “work from home” policies or tele-commuting, and the use of virtual meetings, may permanently reduce business travel and thereby reduce the demand for transportation fuel, including the ethanol we produce.
The Renewable Fuels Standard
The ethanol industry is dependent on several economic incentives to produce ethanol, the most significant of which is the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (the “RFS”). The RFS is a national program that does not require that any renewable fuels be used in any particular area or state, allowing refiners to use renewable fuel blends in those areas where it is most cost-effective. The RFS has been, and we expect will continue to be, a significant factor impacting ethanol usage.
Under the RFS, the EPA is required to pass an annual rule that establishes the number of gallons of different types of renewable fuels that must be used in the U.S. by refineries, blenders, distributors and importers which is called the renewable volume obligations (“RVOs”). The EPA has the authority to waive the mandates in whole or in part if one of two conditions is met: 1) there is inadequate domestic renewable fuel supply, or 2) implementation of the mandate requirement severely harms the economy or environment of a state, region or the United States.
The RFS sets the statutory RVO for corn-based ethanol at 15 billion gallons beginning in 2016 and each year thereafter through 2022. Under RFS statute, the EPA is required to finalize RVOs for a particular compliance year by November 30 of the preceding year. According to the RFS, if mandatory renewable fuel volumes are reduced by at least 20% for two consecutive years, the EPA is required to modify, or reset, statutory volumes through 2022, the year through which the statutorily prescribed volumes run. While conventional ethanol maintained 15 billion gallons, 2019 was the second consecutive year that the total RVO was more than 20% below the statutory volume levels. Thus, the EPA was expected to initiate a reset rulemaking, and modify statutory volumes through 2022, and do so based on the same factors they are to use in setting the RVOs post 2022. These factors include environmental impact, domestic energy security, expected production, infrastructure impact, consumer costs, job creation, price of agricultural commodities, food prices, and rural economic development. However, in late 2019, the EPA announced it would not be moving forward with a reset rulemaking in 2020. It is unclear when or if the current EPA will propose a reset rulemaking, though they have stated an intention to propose a post 2022 set rulemaking as required by law.
On December 7, 2021, the EPA announced long-delayed blending requirement under the RFS. The EPA proposed RVOs of 17.13 billion gallons for 2020, 18.52 billion gallons for 2021, and 20.77 billion gallons for 2022. Ethanol industry advocates have denounced the proposal for significantly cutting the 2020 RVO, which was set in a 2019 final rule. The proposal reduces the 2020 blending requirement from 20.09 billion gallons to 17.13 billion gallons, an approximately 15 percent decrease. For 2021, the EPA proposed to set the RVO for total renewable fuel at 18.52 billion gallons. For 2022, the proposed RVO is 20.77 billion gallons, which the EPA said is the highest level in the history of the RFS program.
In a separate action also on December 7, 2021, the EPA proposed an action to deny 65 pending applications for small refinery exemptions. Concurrently, the USDA announced $800 million to support biofuel producers and infrastructure.
Beyond the federal mandates, there are limited domestic markets for ethanol. Further, opponents of ethanol such as large oil companies will likely continue their efforts to repeal or reduce the RFS through lawsuits or lobbying of Congress. If such efforts are successful in further reducing or repealing the blending requirements of the RFS, a significant decrease in ethanol demand may result and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition, unless additional demand from exports or discretionary E85 blending develops.