More Retail Earnings This Week
With Q1 results from only 34 S&P 500 members still awaited at
this stage, the earnings season is effectively now behind us. The
Retail sector is the only one that has a significant number of
reports still awaited; 16 of the remaining 34 companies are
retailers. But even for the Retail sector, we have seen Q1 results
from 74.8% of the sector’s total market capitalization already,
with not that much room for major surprises.
We will get Q1 results from 117 companies this week, including 23
S&P 500 members. This week’s line-up of retailers include
Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW),
Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT) and
others. Beyond, we have a few bellwether operators from other
sectors coming out with results this week as well, like
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and
Salesforce.com (CRM).
Target has had its share of operational issues lately, so its
report wouldn’t likely tell us much beyond what we saw already from
Wal-Mart’s (WMT) underwhelming report. The
home-improvement retailers will be interesting; not so much their
actual Q1 reports, but their commentary about the state of the
housing sector. There is growing concern that the housing market
has lost some of its recent momentum and that the sector’s Q1
weakness may have been more than just weather related.
Strong results from a couple of retailers notwithstanding, it has
been a tough environment for the sector. Total earnings for the 27
retailers in the S&P 500 that have reported results already
(out of a total of 43) are up +0.9% on +3.6% higher revenues, with
a very low 40.7% of them beating earnings estimates and a
respectable 44.4% coming ahead of top-line expectations.
Combining the Retail sector earnings for the 27 companies that have
come out with the 16 still to come, the sector’s total earnings in
Q1 should be flat (0.0%) on +3.9% higher revenues and lower
margins. Same-store sales improved markedly in April, with pent up
demand following Q1’s harsh weather and the Easter shift benefiting
the numbers.
The broad trends about the Q1 earnings are fairly well established
by now and the coming reports are unlikely to change them in any
material way. These trends pertain to anemic growth, fewer top-line
surprises and continued negative guidance that is prompting
estimates for the current period to come down.
Scorecard for 2014 Q1 (as of Friday, May
16th)
Total earnings for the 466 S&P 500 members that have reported
results are up 1.4% from the same period last year, with a ‘beat
ratio’ of 69.1% and a median surprise of +4.1%. Total revenues are
up +0.9%, with a revenue ‘beat ratio’ of 52.1% and the median
company beating top-line expectations by 0.2%.
The table below shows the current scorecard for all 16 Zacks
sectors. As you can see, the earnings season has come to an end for
10 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with results from just 5% of the
index’s total market capitalization still awaited.
The chart below shows how the earnings and revenue growth rates
for Q1 thus far compare to what these same companies reported in
2013 Q4 and the 4-quarter average.
The Q1 earnings growth picture is no doubt weak, but we should keep
two things in mind while evaluating this growth picture. Firstly,
it’s not news to the market, as expectations had fallen sharply
ahead of the start of the reporting season. As such, as shocking as
the above picture seems to be, nobody is exactly shocked at seeing
them. Secondly, the growth picture actually isn’t as bad as the
above picture is making it out to be once the drag from the Finance
sector (which itself is a function of weak results at Bank of
America) is excluded from the aggregate results.
The comparison chart below of ex-Finance results clearly shows
this.
This chart of ex-Finance growth is showing that the earnings and
revenue growth rates in Q1 are roughly comparable to historical
averages. Nothing exciting about that finding, but it is actually
an improvement over what was expected just a couple of weeks
back.
Looking at the composite Q1 picture, meaning combining the
actual results from the 466 companies that have reported with
estimates for the 34 still-to-come reports, total earnings are
expected to be up 1.4% on +1.1% higher revenues. The table below
presents the (composite) summary picture for Q1, showing the
year-over-year change in total earnings, revenues and margins for
all 16 Zacks sectors.
As we are seeing in the Q1 results already, the low expectations
are making it easy for companies to come out ahead of them. Roughly
two-thirds of the S&P 500 members beat earnings expectations
every quarter any way and we are right around that level in Q1 as
well. What we haven’t seen for a while is positive guidance and
favorable comments from management teams about business outlook.
And Q1 is largely along those same lines, causing estimates for the
current period to come down, as the chart below of evolving Q2
estimates shows.
With retailers a bigger part of the reporting docket in the
coming days, the negative revisions trend will most likely only
accelerate in the reminder of this reporting season.
The downtrend in Q2 estimates is consistent with the trend that
has been in place for almost two years now. Stocks made impressive
gains over the last two years even though estimates were coming
down during that time period, with the Fed QE keeping alive hopes
of an eventual growth recovery. It will be interesting to see if
investors will respond any differently to the coming period of
negative revisions.
For a detailed look at the earnings picture, please check out
our weekly Earnings Tends report.
Monday-5/19
- Not much on the economic calendar today, with Campbell
Soup (CPB) as the key earnings report in the morning and
Urban Outfitter (URBN) reporting after the
close.
Tuesday -5/20
- Nothing on the economic calendar, but Home
Depot (HD), Staples (SPLS) and
TJX Companies (TJX) will report Q1 results in the
morning while Salesforce.com (CRM) will report
after the close.
Wednesday-5/21
- Minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be in the spotlight, with
many looking for clues to the Fed’s exit plans.
- Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW)
and Tiffany (TIF) will be the notable reports in
the morning, while William-Sonoma (WSM) and
L-Brands (LTD), the operator of Victoria’s Secret
chain, will report after the close.
- Zacks Earnings ESP or Expected Surprise Prediction, our
proprietary leading indicator of positive earnings surprises, is
showing Tiffany coming out with a positive earnings surprise.
- Our research shows that companies with Zacks Rank of 1, 2 or 3
and positive Earnings ESP are highly likely of beating EPS
estimates. Tiffany currently has Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and Earnings
ESP of +1.3%.
- To better understand Zacks Earnings ESP, please click
here.
Thursday -5/22
- April Existing Home sales will be the key economic report
coming out in the morning in addition to weekly Jobless Claims. The
expectation is that Existing Home sales will increase to 4.7
million from March’s 4.59 million annualized pace.
- Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree
(DLTR) and Sears Holding (SHLD) will report in the
morning, while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ),
GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS)
will report after the close.
- Zacks Earnings ESP is showing Gap coming out with positive
earnings surprise. Gap has Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and Earnings ESP of
+1.8%.
Friday-5/23
- Will get the April New Home Sales numbers, with expectations of
430K tally, up from March’s 384K level.
- Foot Locker (FL) and Hibbett
Sports (HIBB) are the only notable reports today.
Here is a list of the 117 companies reporting this week,
including 23 S&P 500 members and 22 S&P 600
members.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research?
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BEST BUY (BBY): Free Stock Analysis Report
CAMPBELL SOUP (CPB): Free Stock Analysis Report
SALESFORCE.COM (CRM): Free Stock Analysis Report
DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR): Free Stock Analysis Report
FOOT LOCKER INC (FL): Free Stock Analysis Report
GAMESTOP CORP (GME): Free Stock Analysis Report
GAP INC (GPS): Free Stock Analysis Report
HOME DEPOT (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
HIBBET SPORTS (HIBB): Free Stock Analysis Report
HEWLETT PACKARD (HPQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
LOWES COS (LOW): Free Stock Analysis Report
SEARS HLDG CP (SHLD): Free Stock Analysis Report
STAPLES INC (SPLS): Free Stock Analysis Report
TARGET CORP (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report
TIFFANY & CO (TIF): Free Stock Analysis Report
TJX COS INC NEW (TJX): Free Stock Analysis Report
URBAN OUTFITTER (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report
WAL-MART STORES (WMT): Free Stock Analysis Report
WILLIAMS-SONOMA (WSM): Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research
Company |
Ticker |
Current Qtr |
Year-Ago Qtr |
Last EPS Surprise % |
Report Day |
Time |
CAMPBELL SOUP |
CPB |
0.59 |
0.62 |
4.11 |
Monday |
BTO |
URBAN OUTFITTER |
URBN |
0.27 |
0.32 |
7.27 |
Monday |
AMC |
ANGLOGOLD LTD |
AU |
0.18 |
0.33 |
22.22 |
Monday |
N/A |
COMPUGEN LTD |
CGEN |
-0.11 |
-0.09 |
N/A |
Monday |
BTO |
CUI GLOBAL INC |
CUI |
-0.03 |
-0.04 |
-1000 |
Monday |
AMC |
PARAGON SHIPPNG |
PRGN |
-0.12 |
-0.31 |
-71.43 |
Monday |
AMC |
PERFECT WORLD |
PWRD |
0.49 |
0.43 |
-11.36 |
Monday |
AMC |
RRSAT GLBL COMM |
RRST |
0.13 |
0.1 |
8.33 |
Monday |
BTO |
TARENA INTL-ADR |
TEDU |
0.01 |
N/A |
N/A |
Monday |
AMC |
VALSPAR CORP |
VAL |
1.04 |
0.91 |
4.48 |
Monday |
BTO |
ANALOG DEVICES |
ADI |
0.56 |
0.5 |
2.08 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
SALESFORCE.COM |
CRM |
-0.03 |
-0.07 |
-37.5 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
HOME DEPOT |
HD |
0.99 |
0.83 |
4.29 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
INTUIT INC |
INTU |
3.4 |
2.87 |
-600 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
MEDTRONIC |
MDT |
1.12 |
1.1 |
0 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
STAPLES INC |
SPLS |
0.21 |
0.27 |
-15.38 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
TJX COS INC NEW |
TJX |
0.67 |
0.62 |
-2.41 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
APOLLO INV CP |
AINV |
0.21 |
0.19 |
-4.76 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
BIOLINE RX LTD |
BLRX |
N/A |
-0.2 |
-11.11 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
CATO CORP A |
CATO |
1.04 |
1.05 |
0 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
DONALDSON CO |
DCI |
0.47 |
0.46 |
8.33 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
DICKS SPRTG GDS |
DKS |
0.53 |
0.48 |
0.91 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
CHINA DISTANCE |
DL |
0.02 |
0.02 |
42.86 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
DYCOM INDS |
DY |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
E-HOUSE CHINA |
EJ |
-0.03 |
-0.02 |
53.33 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
EUROSEAS LTD |
ESEA |
-0.09 |
-0.1 |
-88.89 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
HEICO CORP |
HEI |
0.41 |
0.35 |
5.71 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
HHGREGG INC |
HGG |
-0.17 |
0.31 |
-41.38 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
LA QUINTA HLDGS |
LQ |
0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Tuesday |
AMC |
MARKS&SPENCER |
MAKSY |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Tuesday |
N/A |
PROSENA HLDG BV |
RNA |
0.01 |
-0.16 |
14.29 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
RED ROBIN GOURM |
RRGB |
0.73 |
0.66 |
5.08 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
SOC QUIMICA MIN |
SQM |
0.35 |
0.58 |
-21.21 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
STAGE STORES |
SSI |
-0.4 |
-0.02 |
1 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
CHINA DIG TV |
STV |
N/A |
0.13 |
N/A |
Tuesday |
AMC |
TAOMEE HOLDINGS |
TAOM |
0.04 |
0.03 |
350 |
Tuesday |
BTO |
TIDEWATER INC |
TDW |
0.61 |
0.95 |
0 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
VODAFONE GP PLC |
VOD |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Tuesday |
N/A |
VIASAT INC |
VSAT |
0.01 |
0.08 |
-33.33 |
Tuesday |
AMC |
HORMEL FOODS CP |
HRL |
0.56 |
0.49 |
0 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
L BRANDS INC |
LB |
0.51 |
0.48 |
2.48 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
LOWES COS |
LOW |
0.61 |
0.49 |
0 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
NETAPP INC |
NTAP |
0.62 |
0.55 |
3.57 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
PETSMART INC |
PETM |
1.02 |
0.98 |
5.79 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
TARGET CORP |
TGT |
0.7 |
1.05 |
54.76 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
TIFFANY & CO |
TIF |
0.77 |
0.7 |
-3.29 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
AMER EAGLE OUTF |
AEO |
0 |
0.18 |
3.85 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
AEGEAN MARINE |
ANW |
0.17 |
0.13 |
0 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
BOOZ ALLEN HMLT |
BAH |
0.32 |
0.39 |
-5.71 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
BRISTOW GROUP |
BRS |
1.26 |
1.01 |
-27.35 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
CONCORD MED-ADR |
CCM |
0.05 |
0.07 |
N/A |
Wednesday |
AMC |
CNINSURE IN-ADR |
CISG |
0.09 |
0.07 |
-20 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
CITI TRENDS INC |
CTRN |
0.5 |
0.42 |
10 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
8X8 INC |
EGHT |
0 |
0.04 |
-133.33 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
EATON VANCE |
EV |
0.55 |
0.52 |
-3.33 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
GIANT INTERACTV |
GA |
0.25 |
0.21 |
21.74 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
LIGHTINTHEBOX-A |
LITB |
-0.11 |
N/A |
125 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
MAKEMYTRIP LTD |
MMYT |
-0.1 |
-0.25 |
77.78 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
NAVIOS MARI HLD |
NM |
-0.13 |
-0.1 |
-157.14 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
QIWI PLC-ADR |
QIWI |
N/A |
0.24 |
0 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
RAVEN INDS INC |
RAVN |
0.34 |
0.38 |
-28.13 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
RENREN INC-ADR |
RENN |
-0.04 |
-0.01 |
440 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
REXNORD CORP |
RXN |
N/A |
0.31 |
0 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
SINA CORP |
SINA |
-0.09 |
-0.06 |
11.76 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
SEMTECH CORP |
SMTC |
0.2 |
0.36 |
-5 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
SYNOPSYS INC |
SNPS |
0.4 |
0.59 |
61.29 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
SPARTAN STORES |
SPTN |
0.44 |
0.48 |
24 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
SINOVAC BIOTECH |
SVA |
-0.04 |
-0.04 |
N/A |
Wednesday |
AMC |
TRINA SOLAR LTD |
TSL |
-0.01 |
-0.92 |
225 |
Wednesday |
BTO |
VALUEVISION MDA |
VVTV |
0.04 |
0.02 |
-200 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
WILLIAMS-SONOMA |
WSM |
0.44 |
0.4 |
2.22 |
Wednesday |
AMC |
BEST BUY |
BBY |
0.2 |
0.32 |
22.77 |
Thursday |
BTO |
DOLLAR TREE INC |
DLTR |
0.67 |
0.59 |
-2.86 |
Thursday |
BTO |
GAMESTOP CORP |
GME |
0.57 |
0.46 |
-1.04 |
Thursday |
AMC |
GAP INC |
GPS |
0.56 |
0.71 |
3.03 |
Thursday |
AMC |
HEWLETT PACKARD |
HPQ |
0.88 |
0.87 |
5.88 |
Thursday |
AMC |
PATTERSON COS |
PDCO |
0.66 |
0.62 |
0 |
Thursday |
BTO |
ROSS STORES |
ROST |
1.16 |
1.07 |
0 |
Thursday |
AMC |
AEROPOSTALE INC |
ARO |
-0.72 |
-0.16 |
-16.67 |
Thursday |
AMC |
ARUBA NETWORKS |
ARUN |
0.02 |
-0.09 |
-900 |
Thursday |
AMC |
AMER SCI & ENG |
ASEI |
0.66 |
0.57 |
-68.75 |
Thursday |
BTO |
BUCKLE INC |
BKE |
0.78 |
0.78 |
1.65 |
Thursday |
BTO |
BON-TON STORES |
BONT |
-1.55 |
-1.4 |
13.01 |
Thursday |
BTO |
BRADY CORP CL A |
BRC |
0.38 |
0.55 |
-32.43 |
Thursday |
BTO |
BROCADE COMM SY |
BRCD |
0.16 |
0.14 |
16.67 |
Thursday |
AMC |
COLUMBUS MCKINN |
CMCO |
0.52 |
0.37 |
-6.06 |
Thursday |
BTO |
COMPUWARE CORP |
CPWR |
0.06 |
0.04 |
25 |
Thursday |
AMC |
DRYSHIPS INC |
DRYS |
0.02 |
-0.1 |
-200 |
Thursday |
AMC |
ITT EDUCATIONAL |
ESI |
0.71 |
1.33 |
-145.37 |
Thursday |
BTO |
JAMES HARDI-ADR |
JHX |
N/A |
0.35 |
4.17 |
Thursday |
N/A |
KIRKLANDS INC |
KIRK |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.99 |
Thursday |
BTO |
LTX-CREDENCE CP |
LTXC |
0.03 |
-0.08 |
31.58 |
Thursday |
BTO |
MENTOR GRAPHICS |
MENT |
-0.01 |
0.06 |
8.43 |
Thursday |
AMC |
MONRO MUFFLER |
MNRO |
0.35 |
0.25 |
6.82 |
Thursday |
BTO |
MOVADO GRP INC |
MOV |
0.32 |
0.32 |
53.33 |
Thursday |
BTO |
MARVELL TECH GP |
MRVL |
0.15 |
0.13 |
22.22 |
Thursday |
AMC |
NORDSON CORP |
NDSN |
0.9 |
0.84 |
-8.2 |
Thursday |
AMC |
NEPTUNE TEC&BIO |
NEPT |
-0.08 |
-0.01 |
N/A |
Thursday |
BTO |
OCEAN RIG UDW |
ORIG |
-0.02 |
0.05 |
114.29 |
Thursday |
AMC |
PERRY ELLIS INT |
PERY |
0.28 |
0.62 |
100 |
Thursday |
BTO |
CHILDRENS PLACE |
PLCE |
0.61 |
0.83 |
2.13 |
Thursday |
BTO |
ROYAL BANK CDA |
RY |
1.28 |
1.25 |
18.52 |
Thursday |
BTO |
SABMILLER PLC |
SBMRY |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Thursday |
N/A |
SHOE CARNIVAL |
SCVL |
0.47 |
0.47 |
-25 |
Thursday |
AMC |
SEARS HLDG CP |
SHLD |
N/A |
-1.29 |
61.6 |
Thursday |
BTO |
SILVERCORP METL |
SVM |
N/A |
0.04 |
-100 |
Thursday |
AMC |
TORONTO DOM BNK |
TD |
0.92 |
0.93 |
0 |
Thursday |
BTO |
FRESH MARKET |
TFM |
0.42 |
0.46 |
-7.14 |
Thursday |
AMC |
TIVO INC |
TIVO |
0.06 |
-0.09 |
25 |
Thursday |
AMC |
TORO CO |
TTC |
1.45 |
1.32 |
15.79 |
Thursday |
BTO |
21VIANET GP-ADR |
VNET |
N/A |
0.05 |
0 |
Thursday |
AMC |
58.COM INC-ADR |
WUBA |
0.04 |
N/A |
N/A |
Thursday |
BTO |
YOUKU.COM- ADR |
YOKU |
-0.23 |
-0.22 |
100 |
Thursday |
AMC |
ZUMIEZ INC |
ZUMZ |
0.04 |
0.13 |
6.56 |
Thursday |
AMC |
AUTONAVI HL-ADR |
AMAP |
N/A |
0.12 |
-66.67 |
Friday |
BTO |
FOOT LOCKER INC |
FL |
1.05 |
0.91 |
9.33 |
Friday |
BTO |
HIBBET SPORTS |
HIBB |
1.1 |
1 |
-7.25 |
Friday |
BTO |
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 6월(6) 2024 으로 7월(7) 2024
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 7월(7) 2023 으로 7월(7) 2024