Record sales over the Black Friday weekend have set a positive
tone for the holiday selling period and likely also have helped to
deliver a solid finish for retailers' November sales.
Retailers' comparable chain store sales, to be released on
Thursday, are expected to see a gain of 3.1%, following a strong
5.5% increase a year earlier, according to Retail Metrics.
According to the National Retail Federation, a record 226
million shoppers hit the stores and websites over Black Friday
weekend, with the average shopper spending 9.3% more to about $400
and pushing the total spending to a record $52.4 billion.
With the strong showing, analysts have since raised their
average estimate by 0.3 percentage point since the beginning of the
month. Black Friday weekend alone represents about 20% to 30% of
most retailers' November sales, Retail Metrics said.
"Strong Black Friday sales results should bode well for
November" sales, said analyst Sam Panella at Raymond James.
In the face of macroeconomic concerns that have made shoppers
more budget conscious, retailers pulled out all stops to attract
shoppers' holiday attention early.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) moved its Black Friday specials event
to 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day instead of midnight on Friday.
Target Corp. (TGT) , Best Buy Co. (BBY) , Kohl's Corp. (KSS) and
Macy's Inc. (M) opened their doors at midnight, setting a trend of
retailers moving the annual Black Friday frenzy to a late night
marathon after Thanksgiving dinner.
Analysts said the late night openings also have helped to bring
out more younger shoppers.
To better compete with online retailers, brick-and-mortar
retailers this holiday season released their Black Friday specials
earlier than ever and began to promote other holiday deals also
early in the season before Thanksgiving, to entice shoppers to open
their wallets early.
Wal-Mart and other retailers also have been more aggressive on
price-matching guarantees, layaway policy and free shipping
offers.
"Retailers launched a full scale attack on consumers this year
in an attempt to capture early Holiday sales," said Ken Perkins,
president of Retail Metrics. They "stand a good chance of
surprising on the upside."
Overall, the discount sector is expected to be the winner,
posting a 4.7% increase. That estimate excludes results from
Wal-Mart, which doesn't report monthly sales anymore. Including
Wal-Mart, sales in the segment are expected to be up 2.5%, Retail
Metrics data showed.
Membership warehouse club Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is
expected to see a 6.6% increase. Still, any miss by Costco, which
didn't open stores early or promote much for Black Friday, may hurt
retailers' total November tally, Retail Metrics said.
Teen segment also is expected to be a winner, with a 4.1%
increase expected. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) shares rose
4.2% Wednesday after it reported a better-than-expected
third-quarter profit and its fourth-quarter holiday outlook topped
Wall Street expectations. The chain offered 40% off across stores
on Black Friday.
Still, not all of the indications are rosy. While warmer weather
helped to bring out traffic during the Black Friday weekend and
other days, that likely hurt shoppers' appetite for cold-weather
merchandise. The adult apparel segment is only expected to see a
1.8% increase while the department store segment a 2.2% gain.
"The record Thanksgiving weekend sales are bumping up
expectations for all of retail," said analyst Mark Montagna of
Avondale Partners, adding he expects retailers such as Ross Stores
Inc. (ROST) and TJX Cos. (TJX) to top expectations. Still, "we hope
to glean information from each retailer regarding sales of heavier
weight product like sweaters, coats, gloves, scarves, and
boots."
Ross is expected to post a 3.4% increase while T.J. Maxx parent
TJX a 3.9% gain.
The record Black Friday weekend sales also may have come at the
expense of gross margin, analysts said.
Despite a strong November finish, a bulk of retailers'
fourth-quarter still doesn't come until December, analysts said.
Outside of Black Friday, four of the top five selling days fall in
December, according to ShopperTrak.
The holiday quarter is key to the industry and could generate
more than half of annual profit for electronics, jewelry and other
retailers.
Men's clothing retailer Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc. (JOSB),
whose stock has outperformed the sector, saw its shares down 6% on
Wednesday after it said its fourth-quarter business has started out
more slowly than it anticipated with a decline in November
comparable sales.
The largest U.S. clothing chain Gap Inc. (GPS) is expected to
see a 4.4% drop, hurt by declines at both its namesake and discount
Old Navy chains. The company again kept open about 1,000 stores on
Thanksgiving.
Gap, which this year offered promotions of up to 60% off, didn't
drive the same level of traffic compared to last year when it
offered the entire store 50% off until 10 a.m. on Black Friday,
Panella said.
Among the department stores, Macy's, Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) and
Saks Inc. (SKS) are expected to generate gains of 4.1%, 5.1% and
5.9% each. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) , on the other hand, is expected
to see a 1.4% drop as analysts said the mid-priced department store
chain's decision to open stores at 4 a.m. instead of midnight may
have cost it some sales and traffic.
Meanwhile, while luxury segment is expected to continue to
outperform, there are worrying signs of slowing down by luxury
shoppers amid market volatility and Wall Street layoffs and reduced
holiday bonuses, analysts said. .
Jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF) stock was sold off on
Tuesday after the company gave a tepid holiday outlook. It said
it's seen some sales weakness in Europe and in the eastern part of
the U.S. with a major part of growth led by Asian tourists.
"Tiffany's conservative guidance points to a luxury consumer
that is seeing some signs of slowing. said analyst Edward Yruma of
KeyBanc Capital Markets.
-Andria Cheng; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
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