scaryharrysafari
4 년 전
No one in their right mind would be short this stock, but I guess insanity is ruling the day. If someone is short a stock, and that stock pays a dividend, that dividend is coughed up by... you guessed it... the short seller.
So, not only does the short seller get to have nightmares about a short squeeze, they also get the final ignominy of coughing up real C A $ H on the spot to pay the dividend to whomever loaned them the shares they've shorted.
Gonna be fun the next couple weeks.....
value1008
5 년 전
Sure, the investment thesis here is the economy not coming back in any kind of "V" shape, and cont'd over-productive supply of oil relative to the dramatic plunge in demand, which isn't coming back to robust strength any time soon.
Plus, there's about a 0.50 divi coming along in Aug, and likely a fantastic Q2 earnings report and healthy earnings in quarters beyond that in a tanker-shipping market that won't have nearly enough vessels in the VLCC class to handle the need for storage and transport.
value1008
5 년 전
Tech, it's hard to annualize that divi b/c of variability of net earnings and their customary practice of taking out 60% for the divi.
And so the divi for this coming quarter should be HUGE, maybe 0.60 (if adjusted EPS does indeed hit 1.00). But Q3 and Q4 may be back down under 0.35, assuming rates and revenues come down from their recent stratospheric levels due to the collapse of the contango to more minimal spreads.
So, super-conservatively, i estimate 0.35 + 0.60 + 0.18 + .18 for the year. That's still quite considerable.
Technologic
5 년 전
DHT Q1 2020 Earnings Call - Full Transcript (2020/05/06 8am EDT):
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/05/07/dht-maritime-dht-q1-2020-earnings-call-transcript.aspx
Randy Giveans (Jefferies - Analyst) asked some great questions during the Q&A, once of which was this:
Q: "With your shares trading pretty far below NAV and well below energy and wealth at the beginning of the year, it doesn't seem like you're really getting the premiums, you probably deserve for these large dividend payouts. So going forward, are you open to either changing your return of capital policy of 60% payout, or using more of this cash for share repurchases and dividends? How do you balance this?"
Trygve Munthe (DHT - Co-Chief Executive Officer)
A: "... We tend to focus on the cash dividends. And then, of course, shareholders can increase their stakes with their dividends. We have, certainly, at times done buybacks as well. And when there's been fantastic opportunities or disconnects between the underlying business and what's going on in the stock market."
Our Take: Seeing that there is a current obvious disconnect between DHT's intrinsic value and its equity price, along with favorable future Q2, Q3, & Q4 conditions, these sub-7 levels present an opportune buyback opportunity. In an earlier post on Yahoo Finance, DHT's Forward EPS is projected to be $3.03. With today's (2020/05/07) closing price of 6.62, that would equate to a Forward P/E of a mere 2.18. This is unheard of for a company paying out a 21% Dividend Yield (6.62 divided by (0.35 x 4)!
Technologic
5 년 전
Inside the ‘mind-blowing,’ ‘crazy,’ ‘insane,’ ‘ridiculous’ tanker sell-off
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/inside-the-mind-blowing-crazy-insane-ridiculous-tanker-sell-off
Exceprts:
On Wednesday (2020/05/06), U.S.-listed tanker owners reported record-high results, executives confirmed strengthening rates on conference calls, the broader stock market was relatively stable (at least until the last hour), the price of crude oil declined … and yet, tanker stocks fell sharply in heavy trading.
It was “the craziest price action I’ve seen in my nine years covering the space,” Jefferies shipping analyst Randy Giveans told FreightWaves.
According to Giveans, “Today’s performance is ridiculous. Both DHT and Scorpio Tankers were up 4-5% when the market opened, and both press releases and calls were very bullish. These earnings-to-equities disconnects are crazy. Had I not looked at the screen, I would have assumed shares would be 10% higher."
“I know many investors who bought in the last six weeks to hold until earnings, so I guess [they are] dumping today — although to get the DHT dividend, you have to be a shareholder on May 19, 2020.”
Giveans continued, “Today’s weakness seems all about falling rates and concerns that rates are heading back to $10,000 per day — which is just silly. Rates have been quoted as ‘plunging’ or ‘diving,’ but of course rates are going down this week, because of Far East holidays, fewer exports out of Saudi Arabia, charterers remaining slow to fix, and contango tightening. Rates are still strong, and we expect rates to improve in the coming weeks.”
savagess
5 년 전
Anyone notice two trades at the close 16:00:01 for 261,788 shares on the ASK & $6.31 It bumped the ask to $3.40. Is there such a thing as a "double print" or anything. It amounts to $1,651,882 and times two it would be $3,303,764 It certainly caught my attention for sure! That would be ruffly 5% of today's volume just on those trades.
value1008
5 년 전
It was a great ER, with actually adjusted net EPS of 0.58, the figure the analysts and Thomson Reuters will use. S.Alpha and some other news groups flubbed it by reported a "miss" at only 0.44 EPS for Q1. They failed to account for the noncash derivatives loss of $12M due to the collapse of the Libor rate in Q1 (this is according to sector expert J.Mintzmyer).
The numbers the co. is projecting for this Q2 unfolding now are phenomenal. Conservatively they should do around $193M in ADJUSTED REVENUES, when one factors in the 584 open days not yet accounted for, at, say, an avg of $50k daily rates.
value1008
5 년 전
Amazing to see the pre-mkt head-fake trading action up in the $7.50s and then a straight-down plunge at open. And these tanker stocks aren't being manipulated?
Bought another 1k shares at 6.98 to get avg down to 7.12.
Am thinking of backing up the truck and going in big on DHT if traders drop it down nearer to its rising 50dma (presently at 6.55) for a test of support.
On fundamentals, these guys are printing money. Just review the letter to shareholders from the co-CEOs on April 1, especially noting that measly $2,600/day costs for all their 17 vessels on spot-prices, and do the math on how that works out for net income combined with the income they're getting from the 10 ships (6 + 4) now on lucrative time-charter contracts:
---------------
Letter to Shareholders from the Co-CEOs
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/504abf13-9786-4d37-824a-d24a6d0b2020
April 1, 2020
Dear Shareholder,
We are writing to you during extraordinary times. The outbreak of the Covid-19 virus is roller coasting the financial markets. In the oil market, most people were prepared for OPEC+ to cut production only to be surprised by their U-turn decision to increase supply and thereby sending the oil prices tumbling. We appreciate the challenges most industries and businesses face during spells like these.
The current dramatic swings specific to our market demonstrates what we believe always has been, and will continue to be, a highly cyclical and volatile market. And herein lies the opportunities.
We believe that our strategy is increasingly being validated. By continuing to apply strong discipline with respects to allocating capital and manage our fleet in a counter cyclical manner in combination with a keen focus on robust cash break-even levels for our ships operating in the spot market, we believe DHT to be well positioned come rain or shine.
As you have seen from our announcement today, we have entered into fixed rate time charter contracts for six of our ships. The DHT Lake (built 2004), DHT Raven (built 2004), DHT Scandinavia (built 2006), DHT Bauhinia (built 2007), DHT Edelweiss (built 2008) and DHT Lion (built 2016) will each enter one-year firm contracts at an average rate of $67,300 per day. This equates to a combined EBIDTA contribution of about $121 Million during the firm contract periods.
In addition to being highly profitable, these time charter contracts will reduce the cash break-even levels for our spot trading ships – now down to $2,600 per day for the remaining three quarters of 2020.
This is in our view very robust and we believe you would be hard pressed to find any public company matching this number. Cash break-even means different things to different people. In DHT it includes all true cash cost, i.e. daily OPEX, debt repayment, interest, G&A and maintenance CAPEX (e.g. dry-docks).
Following the six new contracts, we have ten ships in total on time charters. The four other ships all have durations longer than one year expiring between June 2021 and November 2022. Importantly, these four ships have average fixed base rates at about $31,500 per day with profit sharing arrangements on top and as such take part in the current strong freight market.
We have received numerous questions from a variety of stakeholders as to how the Covid-19 virus outbreak is impacting our business. The biggest operational challenge relates to our seafarers and our ability to change crews on regular intervals. This is simply put a headache and means in many instances that the crew must stay onboard longer than planned. We are grateful for the fantastic spirit of cooperation and understanding we receive from our seafarers and their families. Please join us with praise, respect and appreciation for their efforts in ensuring our services can continue uninterrupted.
The other area that could present challenges is getting supplies delivered to the ships. Thankfully, we have to date fared well in this regard reflecting on the good planning from our teams both onboard and ashore.
You should continue to expect consistency in our strategy, transparency in our communications and for us to do what we have said we are going to do.
We like our current position and have all ships in the water earning money. Our balance sheet is strong and healthy, and we enjoy excellent support from our banking universe. We are focused and we work hard to create value to your shareholding by pursuing what we believe will continue to be a rewarding business plan.
Thank you for your continued interest in and support of DHT! With best regards,
Trygve P. Munthe Co- CEO
Svein Moxnes Harfjeld Co-CEO
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