Earnings Preview: Intuit - Analyst Blog
15 11월 2011 - 1:45AM
Zacks
While earnings season is drawing to a close, there are still
some tech majors like Dell Inc. (DELL) and
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) that will report
later this month. However a comparatively smaller company
Intuit Inc. (INTU) with a market capitalization of
just $16.25 billion will be reporting its first quarter fiscal 2012
results on November 17.
Fourth Quarter Overview
The company had a bad fourth quarter, with adjusted loss of 11
cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss
of 10 cents.
Intuit reported revenues of $593.0 million in the reported
quarter, up 10.4% from $537.0 million in the prior-year quarter.
Reported revenues surpassed management’s guidance range of $567.0
million to $587.0 million.
The GAAP operating loss was $61.0 million compared with $64.0
million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding special items, non-GAAP
operating income was $25.0 million compared with a loss of $9.0
million in the year-ago quarter.
Guidance
For the first quarter of fiscal 2012, the company expects
revenues of $575.0 million to $585.0 million, up 8.0% to 10.0%.
GAAP operating loss is expected in the range of $95.0 million to
$105.0 million, compared with a loss of $104.0 million in the
year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating loss is projected between
$40.0 million and $50.0 million, compared with a loss of $53.0
million in the year-ago quarter.
GAAP net loss per share is estimated in the range of 24 cents to
26 cents, compared with a loss of 22 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Non-GAAP net loss per share is expected in the range of 11 cent to
13 cent, compared with a loss of 12 cents in the year-ago
quarter.
Agreement of Analysts
Out of the 8 analysts providing estimates for the first quarter,
none revised estimates in the last 30 days. For the second
quarter, only one analyst made a downward revision in the estimate.
For fiscal year 2012 too, there have been no changes in analyst
estimates. Again for fiscal year 2013, only one analyst has revised
its estimate downward over the last 30 days.
Some analysts are of the opinion that with SMB indicators
turning slightly positive, Intuit’s focus on the SBG (small
business group) should work in the company’s favor.. The SMB
segment remains essentially flat with July and the Small Business
Employment Index improved sequentially by 1.0%.
Again, the release of QuickBooks 2012 during the quarter had a
positive impact on the analyst estimate. As a result, some analysts
are projecting Financial Management revenue of $169.0 million
(projecting a growth of 10.0% on a year-over-year basis). This
apart, the analysts are positive on the other segments, thereby
projecting the Employee Management revenue of $119.0 million
(growth of 11.0% on a year-over-year basis) and Payment Solutions
at $89.0 million (growth of 11.0% on a year-over-year basis).
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
For the past 30 days, there was no revision in first quarter
estimates, while over a period of 60 days, the company increased
its loss per share by 2 cents to 20 cents. However, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate increased by 5 cents to $2.57 in the past 60
days.
Again, for the fiscal year 2013, the earnings improved by 6
cents to $2.94, over the last 90 days.
Recommendation
Management is confident about gaining market share in its Small
Business Group and Consumer Tax business, and has provided decent
first quarter guidance. Moreover, the improvements in SMB
indicators may impact result in a positive way.
On the other hand, the analysts remain concerned about the
challenges faced by the company in this recent economic turmoil.
They expect slow recovery in business activity. However, we believe
that the company’s effort to drive double-digit revenue growth by
improving its core fundamentals will lead to decent first quarter
results.
Currently, Intuit has a short-term Hold recommendation, as
indicated by the Zacks #3 Rank.
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