Vietnam Property Fund NAV and February 2013 Update (4766Z)
07 3월 2013 - 7:33PM
UK Regulatory
TIDMVPF
RNS Number : 4766Z
Vietnam Property Fund
07 March 2013
Vietnam Property Fund Limited
"VPF" or "the Company"
NAV and February 2013 Update
Fund NAV Performance
The NAV per share closed at US$0.754 on 28 February 2013.
Investment Climate
The State Bank of Vietnam ("SBV") Governor Nguyen Van Binh
stated in a recent media meeting that monetary policies will be
conservative to control inflation, yet flexible to support growth.
Therefore in order to achieve the Government's target of 5.5% GDP
growth and inflation below 8%, the SBV set the credit growth and M2
growth target at 12% and 14%-16% respectively. This looks to be
sufficiently supportive for growth, yet reasonably conservative to
manage inflation, especially when compared to the actual credit
expansion of 8.9% in 2012. The SBV will also aim to tackle banking
liquidity and NPLs more thoroughly and to gradually lower lending
rates from 13-17% at the end of 2012 to 10-13% in 2013.
GDP growth has declined for two consecutive years now with 2012
delivering GDP growth of only 5%, the lowest in 13 years. It is
likely that a negative feedback loop came into play here as
decreasing income has led to falling confidence which, in turn, led
to reduced spending and thus further income reductions. This was no
doubt caused by the prolonged tight monetary and fiscal policies to
tame high inflation and cool down a hot property market. However,
since June 2012 macro-economic risk indicators have been steadily
improving and property prices have declined to more reasonable
levels. Nonetheless, we believe property prices have not bottomed
yet, although they are probably not far from the bottom as
transaction levels are starting to pick up. Prospects are positive
for lending rates to decline to 10-12% as confidence and the
economic outlook improve which, in turn, should lead to a reversal
of the feedback loop with rising income leading to rising
confidence, thus leading to rising spending and rising income. This
is indeed what appears to be happening as credit growth accelerated
from the bottom of 2.6% year on year ("y/y") in July 2012 to 9.9%
y/y in February 2013. Some observers are concerned about a drop in
total credit by 0.16% for the first two months but in our view this
is still a substantial improvement when compared to the negative
credit growth of 2.5% during the same period last year. More
importantly, credit growth was estimated at +0.85% month on month
("m/m") in February which is much improved from the -1.7% in
February 2012. As the economy is slowly recovering we can expect
credit growth to gradually recover, thereby making the 12% credit
growth target look realistic.
Industrial production in February declined 21.3% m/m, but still
increased 10% y/y. The large monthly decline was due to the timing
of the Tet holiday in 2013. Overall, industrial production in the
first two months increased by 6.8% y/y which is stronger than the
3.9% during the same period in 2012. Particularly noteworthy is the
improvement in real estate related areas such as steel and cement
with the latter increasing 19.4% y/y versus a decline of 14% last
year while the former decreased by only 1.3% versus -24% last year,
signaling increasing business confidence and stronger economic
activities.
Investment Update
With the Tet holiday taking out a whole week in February it is
usually one of the quietest months in Vietnam as most people take
time out to visit family both in the country and overseas. We had
no such luxury here at VPF as we managed to buy into our first
development project for quite some time. We have been concerned
over the level of pricing of assets pretty much since VPF's
inception and it is somewhat of a relief to be able to finally find
a deal worth doing. The project comprises a 2.7ha site in the Thao
Dien area of District 2, Ho Chi Minh City, and benefits from good
river frontage to the Saigon River. The project is currently zoned
for apartments but it is our intention to change the use to villas
and create a luxury gated compound in this popular expat and
wealthy Vietnamese enclave. We look very much forward to working
with our development partner, Sapphire, for the first time on an
actual development project as we believe they are one of, if not
the best, developers in the country. To date a deposit of 10% of
the land price has been paid to the seller with the balance due on
receipt of approval to change the use to villas. We are confident
that the landed villa sector is the most buoyant sector in Vietnam
and the exceptional location of this site will benefit future
sales.
We also continued exiting from one of our listed equity
positions with nearly 75% sold as at the end of February and will
report in more detail once the exit is complete. In terms of
pipeline, we are considering a discounted purchase of completed
apartments in a centrally located project in Ho Chi Minh City which
should yield good returns at current market price levels and become
even more interesting as and when we will experience an inevitable
price increase over the next 18 months. The property market in
Vietnam is still weak but we believe that we will see the bottom in
2013. It is noteworthy that Vietnam seems to have slipped off the
schedules for most of the Asia property conferences this year,
right at the time when investors should be considering Vietnam as a
location ready for a potential upswing. Over supply still exists in
the apartment and office sectors but that will not last forever and
investing in the best projects with the right partners will we
believe pay dividends over the next year or two. The contrarians
are starting to take an interest again and we are confident that
cash will be available to fund bigger and more interesting
projects. It won't happen immediately but it may be the right time
to take another look at Vietnam.
For further information including the full February Monthly
Report please visit - www.vietnampropertyfund.com or contact:
Enquiries:
Rachel Hill
Dragon Capital Markets (Europe) Limited | Tel: +44 79 71 214
852
Rick Thompson, Tom Sheldon,
Seymour Pierce Limited (Nominated Adviser and Broker) | Tel: +44
20 7107 8000
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
NAVUGUPWWUPWGUM
Vietnam Prop. (LSE:VPF)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 5월(5) 2024 으로 6월(6) 2024
Vietnam Prop. (LSE:VPF)
과거 데이터 주식 차트
부터 6월(6) 2023 으로 6월(6) 2024